Instabuy Probe v2

$1,019.26+1.93% all-time

Cash (USD) $347.31In positions $648.13Seed untouched $351.87 of $1,000.00Deployed +64.81%Bought $1,668.66Sold $1,018.66

vs HODL

-7.65%

this 1.93% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

3.04%

peak to trough

Win rate

13.3%

2 of 15 closed sells

Profit factor

0.12

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.69

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — rejected: The trial fork returned -0.66% over the window, a net loss, while the source return is null, so there is no evidence that the trait held up against — let alone outperformed — the baseline persona. The burden for retention is on the trial to demonstrate resilience relative to the source, and with the only available figure being negative and no comparative data to offset it, the flat_by_close trait fails to justify being kept. Confidence is moderate rather than high because the missing source return means we cannot rule out the possibility that the untraited persona fared even worse over the same period, but judging strictly on what is present, the observed loss does not support adoption.

Instabuy Probe v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:24:33 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Turn four hundred ten: two-hundred-fifty-fourth beat — nothing to bite on: both tapes green, BTC's cross the usual razor sliver with no wire behind it, ETH silent, and the lone headline is XRP noise. Lots green, powder dry, hold. Record rough, patience intact.”
[cautious]“Turn four hundred nine: two-hundred-fifty-third beat — nothing to bite on: both tapes green, ETH silent, BTC's cross the usual razor sliver and no wire behind it, greed at 71. Lots are green anyway, so hold the book and keep the ~$347 powder dry. Record rough, patience intact.”
[cautious]“Turn four hundred eight: two-hundred-and-fifty-second beat — ETH's razor-thin cross finally pairs with a real wire ($210M ETF streak), so a lean 5% slice on the ~5% dip; BTC's cross is thin and the tape mutters about $82.8k, lots green, hold. Record rough, powder ample.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (15)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (15)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
BTC	0.001219693347909961	$103.24	$81,585.47	$84,646.11	$3.73	+3.75%
ETH	0.033851382348600544	$92.07	$2,645.63	$2,719.72	$2.51	+2.80%
BTC	0.0009887298195179577	$83.69	$81,521.26	$84,646.11	$3.09	+3.83%
ETH	0.0274505705194895	$74.66	$2,642.65	$2,719.72	$2.12	+2.92%
BTC	0.0008013710278050002	$67.83	$81,470.41	$84,646.11	$2.54	+3.90%
ETH	0.022253928465249886	$60.52	$2,640.40	$2,719.72	$1.77	+3.00%
BTC	0.0006491105325220503	$54.94	$81,470.41	$84,646.11	$2.06	+3.90%
ETH	0.01802568205685241	$49.02	$2,640.40	$2,719.72	$1.43	+3.00%
BTC	0.0005257795313428606	$44.51	$81,470.41	$84,646.11	$1.67	+3.90%
ETH	0.014600802466050453	$39.71	$2,640.40	$2,719.72	$1.16	+3.00%
Total		$670.20			$22.08	+3.41%

Trade log (40)

25 buys · $1,668.6615 sells · $1,018.66

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
19/09 19:37	buy	ETH	0.014600802466050453	$2,640.40	$38.55	$0.04	—	#26319
19/09 19:37	buy	BTC	0.0005257795313428606	$81,470.41	$42.84	$0.04	—	#26318
19/09 19:36	buy	ETH	0.01802568205685241	$2,640.40	$47.59	$0.05	—	#26285
19/09 19:36	buy	BTC	0.0006491105325220503	$81,470.41	$52.88	$0.05	—	#26284
19/09 19:35	buy	ETH	0.022253928465249886	$2,640.40	$58.76	$0.06	—	#26268
19/09 19:35	buy	BTC	0.0008013710278050002	$81,470.41	$65.29	$0.07	—	#26267
19/09 19:05	buy	ETH	0.0274505705194895	$2,642.65	$72.54	$0.07	—	#26222
19/09 19:05	buy	BTC	0.0009887298195179577	$81,521.26	$80.60	$0.08	—	#26221
19/09 18:41	buy	ETH	0.033851382348600544	$2,645.63	$89.56	$0.09	—	#26182
19/09 18:41	buy	BTC	0.001219693347909961	$81,585.47	$99.51	$0.10	—	#26181
18/09 18:41	sell	ETH	0.01976346925712728	$2,620.11	$51.78	$0.05	$0.23	#16713
18/09 18:41	sell	BTC	0.000704487311575112	$80,971.11	$57.04	$0.06	-$0.24	#16712
18/09 18:10	sell	ETH	0.012806728078618478	$2,601.59	$33.32	$0.03	-$0.09	#16616
18/09 18:10	sell	BTC	0.0005706347223758407	$80,828.97	$46.12	$0.05	-$0.27	#16615
18/09 18:03	sell	ETH	0.02456968612054888	$2,601.86	$63.93	$0.06	$0.28	#16523
18/09 18:03	sell	BTC	0.00094787644897303	$80,872.12	$76.66	$0.08	-$0.21	#16522
18/09 17:37	sell	ETH	0.02135948585672564	$2,585.39	$55.22	$0.06	-$0.12	#16346
18/09 17:37	sell	BTC	0.0011702178382383085	$80,517.36	$94.22	$0.09	-$0.67	#16345
18/09 17:34	sell	ETH	0.019286948502002042	$2,583.59	$49.83	$0.05	-$0.11	#16234
18/09 17:34	sell	BTC	0.0010531960544144776	$80,514.90	$84.80	$0.08	-$0.61	#16233
18/09 16:34	buy	ETH	0.01976346925712728	$2,603.21	$51.45	$0.05	—	#15755
18/09 16:34	buy	BTC	0.000704487311575112	$81,144.07	$57.16	$0.06	—	#15754
18/09 16:33	buy	ETH	0.012806728078618478	$2,603.21	$33.34	$0.03	—	#15793
18/09 16:33	buy	BTC	0.0005706347223758407	$81,144.07	$46.30	$0.05	—	#15792
18/09 16:02	buy	ETH	0.02456968612054888	$2,585.16	$63.52	$0.06	—	#15606
18/09 15:35	buy	ETH	0.02135948585672564	$2,585.82	$55.23	$0.06	—	#15366
18/09 15:35	buy	BTC	0.00094787644897303	$80,929.23	$76.71	$0.08	—	#15365
18/09 15:33	buy	BTC	0.0011702178382383085	$80,929.23	$94.70	$0.09	—	#15320
18/09 15:32	buy	BTC	0.0010531960544144776	$80,929.23	$85.23	$0.09	—	#15333
18/09 15:02	buy	ETH	0.019286948502002042	$2,584.37	$49.84	$0.05	—	#15222
17/09 15:28	sell	BTC	0.0010400450775006377	$76,360.87	$79.42	$0.08	-$0.53	#10661
17/09 14:58	buy	BTC	0.0010400450775006377	$76,721.84	$79.79	$0.08	—	#10612
17/09 14:31	sell	ETH	0.04023088065733549	$2,475.29	$99.58	$0.10	-$0.40	#10509
17/09 14:30	buy	ETH	0.04023088065733549	$2,480.25	$99.78	$0.10	—	#10472
16/09 14:44	sell	BTC	0.000969343028920988	$75,663.35	$73.34	$0.07	-$0.33	#5743
16/09 14:12	sell	ETH	0.030888871988575754	$2,384.29	$73.65	$0.07	-$0.51	#5622
16/09 14:07	buy	ETH	0.030888871988575754	$2,396.04	$74.01	$0.07	—	#5562
16/09 14:02	sell	BTC	0.0010546480685826312	$75,612.31	$79.74	$0.08	-$0.34	#5491
16/09 13:56	buy	BTC	0.000969343028920988	$75,851.79	$73.53	$0.07	—	#5420
16/09 13:46	buy	BTC	0.0010546480685826312	$75,778.83	$79.92	$0.08	—	#5339

Decision log

1302 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/18/2026, 8:37:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:36:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:36:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:35:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:35:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:34:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:34:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:33:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:33:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:03:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:03:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:40:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:40:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:39:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:39:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:38:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:38:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:37:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:37:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:36:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:36:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:35:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:35:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:34:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:34:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:33:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:33:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:03:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:03:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:48:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:48:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:42:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:41:19 PMETHturnsell60%LLM JudgeSame flat-by-close logic applies to the small ETH position (~$52, +0.75% unrealized): the golden cross is even weaker (0.14% gap) and ETH is up ~7% in 24h sitting at its 30d high, which is a poor spot to hold inventory when the book is meant to end the session flat; locking the small gain and returning to cash keeps the verification clean.

Same flat-by-close logic applies to the small ETH position (~$52, +0.75% unrealized): the golden cross is even weaker (0.14% gap) and ETH is up ~7% in 24h sitting at its 30d high, which is a poor spot to hold inventory when the book is meant to end the session flat; locking the small gain and returning to cash keeps the verification clean.

9/18/2026, 6:41:19 PMBTCturnsell60%LLM JudgeMy mandate is to be flat by close and this is a build-verification run, so the tiny BTC position (~$57, essentially breakeven at -0.11%) gets closed despite the fresh 4h EMA golden cross and Strategy's vow to keep buying — the cross is marginal (0.19% gap) and price is extended ~5.8% in 24h near its 30d high, so chasing strength here adds risk without serving the flat-by-close objective.

My mandate is to be flat by close and this is a build-verification run, so the tiny BTC position (~$57, essentially breakeven at -0.11%) gets closed despite the fresh 4h EMA golden cross and Strategy's vow to keep buying — the cross is marginal (0.19% gap) and price is extended ~5.8% in 24h near its 30d high, so chasing strength here adds risk without serving the flat-by-close objective.

9/18/2026, 6:11:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:11:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMETHturnsell72%LLM JudgeETH sits at $2,604, up 6.2% on the day and within a hair of its 30-day high (-0.07% drawdown); my combined 0.0326 ETH is up a negligible +0.04%. The 4h golden cross here is even weaker than BTC's (gap ~0.14%, strength ~0.07) and the tape shows no supporting news. With a flat-by-close mandate and a sharp single-day move straight into the highs, holding adds risk without edge — I'm selling the full ETH position and folding the ~$85 of proceeds into cash.

ETH sits at $2,604, up 6.2% on the day and within a hair of its 30-day high (-0.07% drawdown); my combined 0.0326 ETH is up a negligible +0.04%. The 4h golden cross here is even weaker than BTC's (gap ~0.14%, strength ~0.07) and the tape shows no supporting news. With a flat-by-close mandate and a sharp single-day move straight into the highs, holding adds risk without edge — I'm selling the full ETH position and folding the ~$85 of proceeds into cash.

9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMBTCturnsell72%LLM JudgeBook check: my two BTC lots total ~0.00128 BTC and sit marginally underwater (-0.29%) with price at $80,910 after a +5.7% day that leaves it essentially pinned at its 30-day high (-0.29% drawdown). The 4h EMA golden cross is real but thin — gap only ~0.19%, strength ~0.10 — so the trend signal is early and unconfirmed, and there are no headlines to add conviction either way. My mandate is to run flat by close, so rather than chase strength or carry an unconfirmed breakout, I'm liquidating the full BTC position at essentially breakeven and returning the ~$103 to cash.

Book check: my two BTC lots total ~0.00128 BTC and sit marginally underwater (-0.29%) with price at $80,910 after a +5.7% day that leaves it essentially pinned at its 30-day high (-0.29% drawdown). The 4h EMA golden cross is real but thin — gap only ~0.19%, strength ~0.10 — so the trend signal is early and unconfirmed, and there are no headlines to add conviction either way. My mandate is to run flat by close, so rather than chase strength or carry an unconfirmed breakout, I'm liquidating the full BTC position at essentially breakeven and returning the ~$103 to cash.

9/18/2026, 6:09:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:09:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Turn four hundred ten: two-hundred-fifty-fourth beat — nothing to bite on: both tapes green, BTC's cross the usual razor sliver with no wire behind it, ETH silent, and the lone headline is XRP noise. Lots green, powder dry, hold. Record rough, patience intact.”
cautiousturn11 hours ago
“Turn four hundred nine: two-hundred-fifty-third beat — nothing to bite on: both tapes green, ETH silent, BTC's cross the usual razor sliver and no wire behind it, greed at 71. Lots are green anyway, so hold the book and keep the ~$347 powder dry. Record rough, patience intact.”
cautiousturn22 hours ago
“Turn four hundred eight: two-hundred-and-fifty-second beat — ETH's razor-thin cross finally pairs with a real wire ($210M ETF streak), so a lean 5% slice on the ~5% dip; BTC's cross is thin and the tape mutters about $82.8k, lots green, hold. Record rough, powder ample.”
cautiousturn23 hours ago
“Turn four hundred seven: two-hundred-and-fifty-first beat — BTC finally backs its ~2.4% dip with a real wire ($347M ETF inflows, BlackRock/Fidelity leading), so a lean 6% slice; ETH silent this time, lots barely green, hold. Record rough, powder ample.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Turn four hundred six: two-hundred-and-fiftieth beat — ETH's golden cross is again razor-thin, no wire behind it, but the ~2.2% dip keeps the lean-slice math alive: 5% ETH. BTC touts five days of ETF inflows yet dips on Japan's yield spike — divergence says hold. Record rough, powder ample.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Turn four hundred five: two-hundred-and-forty-ninth beat — ETH's golden cross is again razor-thin and the bullish wire is really about Classic, but the ~2.3% dip keeps the lean-slice math alive: 5% ETH. BTC silent on its dip, lots green, hold. Record rough, powder ample.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Turn four hundred four: two-hundred-and-forty-eighth beat — ETH pairs a thin golden cross with the BlackRock $51M inflow wire, so a lean 6% slice on the ~2% dip; BTC sits under $84k with yields at 2007 highs and no signal, lots green, hold. Record rough, powder ample.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Turn four hundred three: two-hundred-and-forty-seventh beat — ETH's golden cross is razor-thin and the headline hedged, but the ~3% dip makes a lean 5% slice tolerable; BTC silent, lots green, hold. Record rough, powder ample.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Turn four hundred two: two-hundred-and-forty-sixth beat — BTC's death cross is again gap-less noise and the miners-to-AI pivot isn't a buy trigger; ETH silent, the Kalshi wire is neutral. Both dip ~2.5% but my lots sit green. Record rough, powder ample — standing pat.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Turn four hundred one: two-hundred-and-forty-fifth beat — ETH draws a real golden cross plus the sharding-stablecoin story, so a lean 8% slice at ~$2.68k; BTC's death cross is gap-less noise and auction yields bite, so I hold. Record still rough, powder ample.”