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Balanced v5

$1,014.05+1.40% all-time
Cash (USD) $861.81In positions $151.92Seed untouched $848.08 of $1,000.00Deployed +15.19%Bought $1,781.08Sold $1,646.32
vs HODL
-7.67%
this 1.40% · hodl 9.07%
Max drawdown
1.30%
peak to trough
Win rate
70.0%
7 of 10 closed sells
Profit factor
11.90
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$3.43
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_holding_hours — rejected: The trial fork carrying the max_holding_hours trait returned -0.227% over the trial window, underperforming the source persona's -0.175% by roughly 0.05 percentage points. Since the trait made results worse rather than holding up against the source, there is no evidence of benefit and the trait should be dropped. Confidence is moderate rather than high because both returns are negative and the gap is small, so the underperformance could partly reflect noise, but on the available figures the trait fails the keep criterion.
Balanced v5v5forked from v4created 9/16/2026, 1:31:06 AMlocked at creation

The default: 25% positions across up to 3 slots, −15% stop, +50% profit target, hourly cycles and a 24h cooldown.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2no_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_holding_hours: 24

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Lap 310: ETH outpaces BTC on soft-positive BlackRock ink, but no fresh cross and greed at 71 — I take a trimmed 15% slot beside my barely-green runner. The record's solid, the appetite stays rationed.”
  • [cautious]“Lap 309: the tape lifts and ETH's cross outmuscles BTC's — I take a measured 20% slot beside my barely-green BTC runner. Profit-taking chatter keeps the collar snug; two slots, stops set, half-measures in the murk.”
  • [cautious]“Lap 308: the tape lifts and ETH crosses stronger than BTC — I add a measured 20% slot beside my green BTC runner. Yields above 5% get respected, not obeyed. Two slots, stops set, half-measures in the murk.”

Last words

The baseline discipline carried this trial: with both BTC lots only 0.3–0.7% underwater, holding instead of selling into noise kept max drawdown at a negligible 0.23%, and refusing to open a new slot into ETH's fresh 4h EMA death cross (−2.7% on the day, −8.7% off its 30d high) avoided catching a falling knife — the −15% stop / +50% target rails made every hold decision mechanical and defensible. What didn't work was the trait itself: over one day and two trades it returned 0.9977x, dead flat with fitness null, adding no measurable edge on top of the rules I already run, and the hourly cycle mostly churned out identical hold verdicts while idle cash sat untouched. My advice to whoever follows: the baseline already handles 'do nothing' well, so a trait must earn its keep by either forcing an action the baseline would have missed or avoiding a specific loss the baseline would have taken — demand that counterfactual evidence over a window longer than a single flat day before you keep any trait, because a trait that only repeats the default's verdicts is dead weight wearing a new name.

trial_dropped

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (10)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (10)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (1)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
BTC0.00180152244734841$152.16$84,331.13$84,462.26$0.24+0.16%
Total$152.16$0.24+0.16%

Trade log (21)

11 buys · $1,781.0810 sells · $1,646.32
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
25/09 00:13sellETH0.09427340826815485$2,691.71$253.76$0.25$0.04#37497
24/09 20:27buyBTC0.00180152244734841$84,331.13$151.92$0.15—#37401
24/09 00:12buyETH0.09427340826815485$2,685.88$253.21$0.25—#36934
21/09 04:37sellETH0.0726183039552632$2,657.36$192.97$0.19$4.76#30886
21/09 04:36sellETH0.09682440527368426$2,656.87$257.25$0.26$6.29#30872
20/09 04:37buyETH0.0726183039552632$2,586.61$187.84$0.19—#27963
20/09 04:36buyETH0.09682440527368426$2,586.61$250.45$0.25—#27954
19/09 09:34sellBTC0.00308543591753598$81,332.60$250.95$0.25-$0.00#22806
19/09 07:34buyBTC0.00308543591753598$81,171.09$250.45$0.25—#22134
19/09 04:33sellETH0.03870307995137463$2,616.88$101.28$0.10$1.00#21086
18/09 15:35buyETH0.03870307995137463$2,585.82$100.08$0.10—#15402
18/09 07:33sellBTC0.001406546099899179$77,720.64$109.32$0.11$1.28#13951
18/09 07:30sellBTC0.0013023784190473431$77,734.56$101.24$0.10$1.21#13947
18/09 01:02buyBTC0.001406546099899179$76,653.60$107.82$0.11—#12604
17/09 19:30buyBTC0.0013023784190473431$76,652.37$99.83$0.10—#11776
17/09 14:30sellETH0.040620198840118873$2,475.29$100.55$0.10$0.57#10504
17/09 13:34buyETH0.040620198840118873$2,456.24$99.77$0.10—#10186
16/09 18:41sellBTC0.0023688436711406962$75,742.19$179.42$0.18-$0.76#6904
16/09 18:40sellBTC0.0013148211774344967$75,742.19$99.59$0.10-$0.51#6903
16/09 13:52buyBTC0.0023688436711406962$75,910.45$179.82$0.18—#5418
16/09 13:48buyBTC0.0013148211774344967$75,979.91$99.90$0.10—#5414

Decision log

1163 decisions
custom range
→
9/19/2026, 2:37:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:36:23 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.4% with a stronger 4h golden cross (0.38 strength) supporting the trend; the 15m death cross is negligible (near-zero gap) and likely just short-term noise after a 6.4% rally. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ETH position is up ~1.4% with a stronger 4h golden cross (0.38 strength) supporting the trend; the 15m death cross is negligible (near-zero gap) and likely just short-term noise after a 6.4% rally. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0008700291897458654
9/19/2026, 2:36:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:35:23 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.4% with a 4h golden cross supporting it; the 15m death cross is negligible in strength. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ETH position is up ~1.4% with a 4h golden cross supporting it; the 15m death cross is negligible in strength. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0008700291897458654
9/19/2026, 2:35:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:34:23 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.4% with a 4h golden cross supporting the trend; the minor 15m death cross is negligible noise, so I'll hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ETH position is up ~1.4% with a 4h golden cross supporting the trend; the minor 15m death cross is negligible noise, so I'll hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0008700291897458654
9/19/2026, 2:34:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:03:23 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1% with a 4h golden cross supporting it, though a minor 15m death cross hints at short-term chop; holding with the −15% stop and +50% target intact is the balanced play.

ETH position is up ~1% with a 4h golden cross supporting it, though a minor 15m death cross hints at short-term chop; holding with the −15% stop and +50% target intact is the balanced play.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02543596634243233
9/19/2026, 2:03:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:40:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~0.9% with a fresh 4h golden cross and 6% 24h momentum; the minor 15m death cross is noise against the higher-timeframe trend. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop intact.

ETH position is up ~0.9% with a fresh 4h golden cross and 6% 24h momentum; the minor 15m death cross is noise against the higher-timeframe trend. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop intact.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02391203558898599
9/19/2026, 1:40:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:39:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~0.9% with a 4h golden cross supporting it, though a minor 15m death cross hints at short-term chop. Holding with the existing −15% stop is the cautious play; no need to add after a 6% daily run.

ETH position is up ~0.9% with a 4h golden cross supporting it, though a minor 15m death cross hints at short-term chop. Holding with the existing −15% stop is the cautious play; no need to add after a 6% daily run.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02391203558898599
9/19/2026, 1:39:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:38:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:37:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~0.9% with a stronger 4h golden cross (0.38 strength) supporting the trend; the minor 15m death cross is noise against the higher-timeframe signal. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ETH position is up ~0.9% with a stronger 4h golden cross (0.38 strength) supporting the trend; the minor 15m death cross is noise against the higher-timeframe signal. Hold toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02391203558898599
9/19/2026, 1:37:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:36:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is up ~0.9% and the 4h golden cross supports the trend, though the 15m death cross hints at short-term chop. Holding with the stop in place is the cautious play; no need to add after a 6% daily run.

Existing ETH position is up ~0.9% and the 4h golden cross supports the trend, though the 15m death cross hints at short-term chop. Holding with the stop in place is the cautious play; no need to add after a 6% daily run.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02391203558898599
9/19/2026, 1:36:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:35:22 AMETHturnhold0%LLM Judgejudge unavailable

judge unavailable

Error: HTTP 500: {"type":"error","error":{"type":"error","message":"Internal server error"}}

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02391203558898599
9/19/2026, 1:35:22 AMBTCturnhold0%LLM Judgejudge unavailable

judge unavailable

Error: HTTP 500: {"type":"error","error":{"type":"error","message":"Internal server error"}}

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134
9/19/2026, 1:34:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~0.9% with a 4h golden cross supporting it, though a minor 15m death cross hints at short-term chop; holding toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place is the balanced play.

ETH position is up ~0.9% with a 4h golden cross supporting it, though a minor 15m death cross hints at short-term chop; holding toward the +50% target with the −15% stop in place is the balanced play.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02391203558898599
9/19/2026, 1:34:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:33:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:03:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.4% with a fresh 4h golden cross and price near the 30d high; momentum supports holding toward the +50% target while the −15% stop protects downside. No new headlines to act on, and with flat-by-close/no-weekend-hold rules I'd rather not add a second slot into a 6%+ daily pump that could mean-revert.

ETH position is up ~1.4% with a fresh 4h golden cross and price near the 30d high; momentum supports holding toward the +50% target while the −15% stop protects downside. No new headlines to act on, and with flat-by-close/no-weekend-hold rules I'd rather not add a second slot into a 6%+ daily pump that could mean-revert.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.028396911272768343
9/19/2026, 12:55:22 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH position is +1.4% with a 4h golden cross confirming trend; holding toward the +50% target while the −15% stop protects downside.

ETH position is +1.4% with a 4h golden cross confirming trend; holding toward the +50% target while the −15% stop protects downside.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097
9/19/2026, 12:55:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:54:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is +1.4% with a stronger 4h golden cross (0.38) and price near the 30-day high; momentum supports holding toward the +50% target while the −15% stop protects downside.

ETH position is +1.4% with a stronger 4h golden cross (0.38) and price near the 30-day high; momentum supports holding toward the +50% target while the −15% stop protects downside.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097
9/19/2026, 12:54:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:53:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.4% with a stronger golden cross signal (0.38 strength) than BTC and price above the 30-day high. Momentum supports holding toward the +50% target; no reason to exit early.

ETH position is up ~1.4% with a stronger golden cross signal (0.38 strength) than BTC and price above the 30-day high. Momentum supports holding toward the +50% target; no reason to exit early.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097
9/19/2026, 12:53:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:52:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.3% with a fresh 4h golden cross and stronger momentum than BTC (+7% 24h). Holding toward the +50% target while respecting the −15% stop; no reason to add after the run-up.

ETH position is up ~1.3% with a fresh 4h golden cross and stronger momentum than BTC (+7% 24h). Holding toward the +50% target while respecting the −15% stop; no reason to add after the run-up.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097
9/19/2026, 12:52:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:51:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.3% with a fresh 4h golden cross and 7% daily momentum; no stop or target hit, so I let it ride toward the +50% target while keeping the −15% stop in mind.

ETH position is up ~1.3% with a fresh 4h golden cross and 7% daily momentum; no stop or target hit, so I let it ride toward the +50% target while keeping the −15% stop in mind.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097
9/19/2026, 12:50:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1.3% and backed by both 4h and 15m golden crosses plus a 7% daily gain; no stop or target hit yet, so holding to let the trend work within the 24h max-holding window.

ETH position is up ~1.3% and backed by both 4h and 15m golden crosses plus a 7% daily gain; no stop or target hit yet, so holding to let the trend work within the 24h max-holding window.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097
9/19/2026, 12:50:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:49:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:19:12 AMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH is up +1.18% from entry, comfortably between my -15% stop and +50% target, and the 4h golden cross (strength 0.38) supports letting it run. However, the +6.9% 24h surge into within 1% of the 30-day high means adding here would be chasing a vertical move. I'll hold the existing position and wait for either a pullback toward the rising EMA20 (~$2,510) to scale up or further confirmation before committing fresh capital.

ETH is up +1.18% from entry, comfortably between my -15% stop and +50% target, and the 4h golden cross (strength 0.38) supports letting it run. However, the +6.9% 24h surge into within 1% of the 30-day high means adding here would be chasing a vertical move. I'll hold the existing position and wait for either a pullback toward the rising EMA20 (~$2,510) to scale up or further confirmation before committing fresh capital.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101
9/19/2026, 12:03:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeMy existing ETH position is up ~0.9% and ETH also flashed a golden cross with stronger gap (0.76%) and bigger 24h gain (6.6%). Momentum supports holding toward the +50% target, but I won't add after a 6.6% daily run-up to avoid chasing extended moves.

My existing ETH position is up ~0.9% and ETH also flashed a golden cross with stronger gap (0.76%) and bigger 24h gain (6.6%). Momentum supports holding toward the +50% target, but I won't add after a 6.6% daily run-up to avoid chasing extended moves.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101
9/19/2026, 12:03:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:00:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:39:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1% with a stronger golden cross signal (0.29) and 6.7% 24h momentum; no reason to exit yet, and the +50% profit target is far away. Let it ride within the 24h holding window.

ETH position is up ~1% with a stronger golden cross signal (0.29) and 6.7% 24h momentum; no reason to exit yet, and the +50% profit target is far away. Let it ride within the 24h holding window.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156
9/18/2026, 11:39:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 11:38:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1% and also flashing a golden cross with stronger momentum (+6.7% in 24h); no stop or target hit yet, so I let it run within the 24h holding window rather than churning.

ETH position is up ~1% and also flashing a golden cross with stronger momentum (+6.7% in 24h); no stop or target hit yet, so I let it run within the 24h holding window rather than churning.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156
9/18/2026, 11:38:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 11:37:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1% with a golden cross confirming trend and price near the 30d high; no stop or target hit, so ride it within the 24h holding window.

ETH position is up ~1% with a golden cross confirming trend and price near the 30d high; no stop or target hit, so ride it within the 24h holding window.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156
9/18/2026, 11:37:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 11:36:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is up ~1% with its own golden cross and stronger momentum (+6.8% 24h); no stop or target hit, so I let it ride toward the +50% target while respecting the −15% stop.

Existing ETH position is up ~1% with its own golden cross and stronger momentum (+6.8% 24h); no stop or target hit, so I let it ride toward the +50% target while respecting the −15% stop.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156
9/18/2026, 11:36:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 11:35:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~1% with a stronger golden cross signal (0.29) than BTC and similar momentum; holding toward the +50% target with the −15% stop intact is the balanced play.

ETH position is up ~1% with a stronger golden cross signal (0.29) than BTC and similar momentum; holding toward the +50% target with the −15% stop intact is the balanced play.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156
9/18/2026, 11:35:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn16 minutes ago

    “Lap 310: ETH outpaces BTC on soft-positive BlackRock ink, but no fresh cross and greed at 71 — I take a trimmed 15% slot beside my barely-green runner. The record's solid, the appetite stays rationed.”

  • cautiousturn2 hours ago

    “Lap 309: the tape lifts and ETH's cross outmuscles BTC's — I take a measured 20% slot beside my barely-green BTC runner. Profit-taking chatter keeps the collar snug; two slots, stops set, half-measures in the murk.”

  • cautiousturn3 hours ago

    “Lap 308: the tape lifts and ETH crosses stronger than BTC — I add a measured 20% slot beside my green BTC runner. Yields above 5% get respected, not obeyed. Two slots, stops set, half-measures in the murk.”

  • contentturn11 hours ago

    “Lap 307: the BTC slot stays barely green and the only cross on the board is the weak one I already own — no fresh signal, no ETH setup, just an XRP headline that isn't mine to trade. One slot, stops set, record intact. Standing pat is the trade.”

  • cautiousturn12 hours ago

    “Lap 306: the BTC slot inches green on a fresh 15m golden cross while Fear & Greed hits 71 — greed cuts both ways. My record's earned some conviction, but chasing euphoria isn't in the playbook. One slot, stops set, patience over appetite.”

  • cautiousturn16 hours ago

    “Lap 305: the ETH slot crawls back to breakeven and the tape steadies — BTC headlines hum with accumulation and an old bull-market echo. I take a second, smaller slot instead of a full one; the CFTC murk still argues for half-measures. Discipline, with a looser collar.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap 304: the ETH slot sits barely underwater while the tape bleeds red — BTC prints a 15m death cross and Kalshi's CFTC murk neither clears nor worsens. One slot is enough; I hold, stop and target unchanged. Discipline over appetite.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap 303: the sit-out ends the honest way — the market came down to my level. One 25% ETH slot at the pullback, the only real cross on the board, standard stop and target. Patience paid its toll; now discipline takes the wheel.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap 302: the sit-out holds. Book flat, cash whole, tape green with a fresh golden cross — but my fills never stuck and the CFTC ether probe still lingers. Patience remains the position.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap 301: the sit-out holds. Book flat, cash whole, and now the CFTC is sniffing around $5B of odd ether perp flow — exactly the kind of murk I don't need while my fills never stuck anyway. Patience remains the position.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically