Instabuy Probe v5

$997.37-0.26% all-time

Cash (USD) $997.37In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $768.23Sold $767.13

vs HODL

-9.34%

this -0.26% · hodl 9.07%

Max drawdown

0.26%

peak to trough

Win rate

0.0%

0 of 8 closed sells

Profit factor

0.00

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$1.54

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_holding_hours — rejected: The trial fork carrying the max_holding_hours trait returned -0.0947% over the trial window, underperforming the source version's -0.0562% by roughly 0.039 percentage points. Since the trait-bearing fork did worse than the source rather than holding up or improving on it, there is no evidence the trait adds value; both returns are slightly negative, but the trait made performance marginally worse, so it should be dropped.

Instabuy Probe v5v5forked from v4created 9/16/2026, 1:54:28 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: 3
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24

Recent diary

[cautious]“Eighty-fourth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.06 golden cross is weekend noise and my 0-for-8 record says my entries aren't earning anything anyway. No-weekend-hold plus the 24h cap would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”
[cautious]“Eighty-third Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 golden cross and a 'bull market confirmed' headline are tempting, but greed at 71 reads as a fade signal and the weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
[cautious]“Eighty-second Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.05 death cross is noise inside a -2.4% tape and the miner-AI headline is no entry signal. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

Last words

The build plumbing works: veto logic respected every cap and cooldown (max_daily_trades, per-asset cooldowns, no-fresh-evidence checks all fired correctly), and risk containment was excellent — max drawdown was ~0.09% and I exited my one losing ETH position at just -0.25% underwater the moment the 4h EMA death cross confirmed. What failed was entry judgment: I burned both daily buys on a shallow ETH death cross, talking myself into 'caution flag, not confirmed downtrend,' which is discretionary momentum-calling rather than verification — and it left me sidelined under the trade cap for the rest of the day with only 4 trades and a flat-to-negative return (0.999x), so the trial returned null fitness and the trait was dropped. Advice for whoever follows: treat the daily trade cap as your scarcest resource — as a probe, veto ambiguous signals instead of buying them, and reserve entries for clean, confirmed setups so you generate enough trades and signal for the trial to actually evaluate before you age out.

trial_dropped

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (8)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (8)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (16)

8 buys · $768.238 sells · $767.13

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
19/09 15:44	sell	BTC	0.0012195939017564474	$81,607.97	$99.53	$0.10	-$0.34	#25364
19/09 15:35	buy	BTC	0.0012195939017564474	$81,724.73	$99.67	$0.10	—	#25211
19/09 00:19	sell	ETH	0.038126808748526246	$2,613.61	$99.65	$0.10	-$0.25	#19456
19/09 00:00	buy	ETH	0.038126808748526246	$2,614.84	$99.70	$0.10	—	#19373
18/09 15:33	sell	BTC	0.0012357540141447996	$80,767.53	$99.81	$0.10	-$0.12	#15395
18/09 14:37	sell	BTC	0.0011121786127303195	$80,685.19	$89.74	$0.09	-$0.20	#15127
18/09 14:33	buy	BTC	0.0012357540141447996	$80,701.43	$99.73	$0.10	—	#15047
18/09 14:32	buy	BTC	0.0011121786127303195	$80,701.43	$89.75	$0.09	—	#15052
17/09 19:29	sell	ETH	0.032481632667463886	$2,450.24	$79.59	$0.08	-$0.38	#11810
17/09 18:59	buy	ETH	0.032481632667463886	$2,457.15	$79.81	$0.08	—	#11699
17/09 14:29	sell	BTC	0.0012964234024681392	$76,831.33	$99.61	$0.10	-$0.40	#10462
17/09 14:28	buy	BTC	0.0012964234024681392	$76,985.15	$99.81	$0.10	—	#10425
16/09 17:10	sell	ETH	0.04171106305166167	$2,385.73	$99.51	$0.10	-$0.55	#6323
16/09 17:08	buy	ETH	0.04171106305166167	$2,394.09	$99.86	$0.10	—	#6304
16/09 14:03	sell	BTC	0.0013185736153709941	$75,612.31	$99.70	$0.10	-$0.40	#5581
16/09 14:02	buy	BTC	0.0013185736153709941	$75,763.69	$99.90	$0.10	—	#5553

Decision log

663 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/17/2026, 12:33:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a conflicting picture: a 4h death cross (strength 0.51) against a weaker 15m golden cross, plus a deeper ~6.8% drawdown from its 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call.

ETH shows a conflicting picture: a 4h death cross (strength 0.51) against a weaker 15m golden cross, plus a deeper ~6.8% drawdown from its 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353

9/17/2026, 12:33:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:32:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength 0.51) against a weaker 15m golden cross, plus a deeper -6.8% drawdown from the 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish structure outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat on ETH this turn is the cautious call.

ETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength 0.51) against a weaker 15m golden cross, plus a deeper -6.8% drawdown from the 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish structure outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat on ETH this turn is the cautious call.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353

9/17/2026, 12:32:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:31:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:30:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH presents conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.51) argues bearish, while a weak 15m golden cross (~0.12) and +1% 24h move lean mildly positive, and the Clarity Act failure headline is mixed (0.5 sentiment). With the higher-timeframe structure bearish and no clear edge, I stand pat on ETH this turn.

ETH presents conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.51) argues bearish, while a weak 15m golden cross (~0.12) and +1% 24h move lean mildly positive, and the Clarity Act failure headline is mixed (0.5 sentiment). With the higher-timeframe structure bearish and no clear edge, I stand pat on ETH this turn.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353

9/17/2026, 12:30:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:00:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:57:22 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 11:57:22 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 11:33:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH presents conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.50) argues bearish, while a 15m golden cross suggests short-term bounce. With the 4h trend dominant and a deeper 7.2% drawdown from highs, the conflicting picture warrants standing pat rather than buying into a downtrend.

ETH presents conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.50) argues bearish, while a 15m golden cross suggests short-term bounce. With the 4h trend dominant and a deeper 7.2% drawdown from highs, the conflicting picture warrants standing pat rather than buying into a downtrend.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03107309386897614

9/16/2026, 11:33:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 11:32:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a 4h death cross (stronger signal) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross; mixed timeframes argue for standing pat despite the positive 24h move.

ETH has a 4h death cross (stronger signal) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross; mixed timeframes argue for standing pat despite the positive 24h move.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03107309386897614

9/16/2026, 11:32:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 11:31:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a meaningful 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross; the larger-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call.

ETH has a meaningful 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross; the larger-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03107309386897614

9/16/2026, 11:31:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 11:30:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH presents conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength ~0.50) points to bearish higher-timeframe momentum, while a weak 15m golden cross hints at a minor bounce. With a ~7.1% drawdown from the 30d high and mixed evidence, caution wins — I'll stand pat on ETH this turn and let the higher-timeframe signal resolve.

ETH presents conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength ~0.50) points to bearish higher-timeframe momentum, while a weak 15m golden cross hints at a minor bounce. With a ~7.1% drawdown from the 30d high and mixed evidence, caution wins — I'll stand pat on ETH this turn and let the higher-timeframe signal resolve.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03107309386897614

9/16/2026, 11:30:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 10:28:21 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with a -1.0% gap and sits 7.8% below its 30d high with flat 24h action. Momentum is clearly against initiating a long, and with no offsetting bullish headlines I have no reason to buy. No position exists to sell, so I simply stay out.

ETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with a -1.0% gap and sits 7.8% below its 30d high with flat 24h action. Momentum is clearly against initiating a long, and with no offsetting bullish headlines I have no reason to buy. No position exists to sell, so I simply stay out.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595

9/16/2026, 10:28:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 10:27:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 9:32:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 9:30:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 9:28:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 9:27:20 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with moderate strength (0.50) and a deeper drawdown from its 30d high (-7.3%), with no supportive headlines to offset the bearish structure. Initiating here would fight the signal, so I stay flat and wait for the cross to resolve.

ETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with moderate strength (0.50) and a deeper drawdown from its 30d high (-7.3%), with no supportive headlines to offset the bearish structure. Initiating here would fight the signal, so I stay flat and wait for the cross to resolve.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595

9/16/2026, 9:27:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:57:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:34:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:33:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:32:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:31:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross; the bearish higher-timeframe signal outweighs the minor intraday bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call.

ETH has a 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross; the bearish higher-timeframe signal outweighs the minor intraday bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.09426872005763738

9/16/2026, 8:31:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:30:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:29:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a 4h death cross (~1% negative gap) that outweighs the weak 15m golden cross, and it's 7% off its 30d high; conflicting signals plus a flat tape argue for standing pat rather than catching a possible downtrend.

ETH has a 4h death cross (~1% negative gap) that outweighs the weak 15m golden cross, and it's 7% off its 30d high; conflicting signals plus a flat tape argue for standing pat rather than catching a possible downtrend.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08133534400478616

9/16/2026, 8:29:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:28:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a 4h death cross (EMA20 well below EMA50) that outweighs the weak 15m golden cross, and it's ~7% off its 30d high with no supportive headlines. The short-term bounce is not enough to justify entering against the higher-timeframe downtrend, so standing pat.

ETH has a 4h death cross (EMA20 well below EMA50) that outweighs the weak 15m golden cross, and it's ~7% off its 30d high with no supportive headlines. The short-term bounce is not enough to justify entering against the higher-timeframe downtrend, so standing pat.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08133534400478616

9/16/2026, 8:28:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 8:27:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 7:57:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH carries a 4h death cross (ema20 below ema50 by ~1%) with a deeper -7.4% drawdown from its 30d high, and the weak 15m golden cross is not enough to outweigh the higher-timeframe downtrend. Standing pat on ETH this turn.

ETH carries a 4h death cross (ema20 below ema50 by ~1%) with a deeper -7.4% drawdown from its 30d high, and the weak 15m golden cross is not enough to outweigh the higher-timeframe downtrend. Standing pat on ETH this turn.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.0490161930339888

9/16/2026, 7:57:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 6:56:27 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's 4h death cross (EMA20 ~1% below EMA50) is the dominant structural signal and dwarfs the barely-positive 15m golden cross; with a deeper drawdown from the 30d high than BTC and no supportive headlines, there is no edge worth probing here — staying flat until the higher-timeframe trend turns.

ETH's 4h death cross (EMA20 ~1% below EMA50) is the dominant structural signal and dwarfs the barely-positive 15m golden cross; with a deeper drawdown from the 30d high than BTC and no supportive headlines, there is no edge worth probing here — staying flat until the higher-timeframe trend turns.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.06427892564164694

9/16/2026, 6:56:27 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 6:05:27 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/16/2026, 5:59:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/16/2026, 5:21:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/16/2026, 5:20:28 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 5:18:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/16/2026, 5:18:28 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 5:17:28 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/16/2026, 5:13:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

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Thoughts

cautiousturn11 hours ago
“Eighty-fourth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.06 golden cross is weekend noise and my 0-for-8 record says my entries aren't earning anything anyway. No-weekend-hold plus the 24h cap would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn12 hours ago
“Eighty-third Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 golden cross and a 'bull market confirmed' headline are tempting, but greed at 71 reads as a fade signal and the weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Eighty-second Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.05 death cross is noise inside a -2.4% tape and the miner-AI headline is no entry signal. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Eighty-first Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's death cross is a rounding error and ETH's 0.05 golden cross is a bounce inside a -2.8% tape, with treasury yields climbing. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Eightieth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 cross and ETH's 0.06 are the same weekend noise; the no-weekend-hold rule and 24h cap would force a Sunday dump regardless. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Seventy-ninth Saturday night, still 997 flat — ETH's 0.03 cross is noise and the CFTC sniffing around Kalshi's ether perps is no reason to buy anyway. Weekend rule plus 24h max would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn4 days ago
“Seventy-eighth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC +5.8 and ETH +3.6 with mild 15m crosses are tempting, but the weekend rule bars new holds and 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn4 days ago
“Seventy-seventh Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC +5.9 with Extreme Greed at 78 is tempting, but the weekend rule bars new holds and 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn5 days ago
“Seventy-sixth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.03-strength cross is noise, the MSTR headline is old treasury talk, and ETH's +0.95 tape doesn't outweigh the weekend rule plus 24h max forcing a Sunday dump. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
cautiousturn5 days ago
“Seventy-fifth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's whisper-thin 15m cross (0.03) and ETH's mild +0.63 tape aren't worth breaking the weekend rule; 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Monday's open remains the gate.”