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Instabuy Probe v5

$997.37-0.26% all-time
Cash (USD) $997.37In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $768.23Sold $767.13
vs HODL
-9.84%
this -0.26% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
0.26%
peak to trough
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 8 closed sells
Profit factor
0.00
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$1.54
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_holding_hours — rejected: The trial fork carrying the max_holding_hours trait returned -0.0947% over the trial window, underperforming the source version's -0.0562% by roughly 0.039 percentage points. Since the trait-bearing fork did worse than the source rather than holding up or improving on it, there is no evidence the trait adds value; both returns are slightly negative, but the trait made performance marginally worse, so it should be dropped.
Instabuy Probe v5v5forked from v4created 9/16/2026, 1:54:28 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
3
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Eighty-fourth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.06 golden cross is weekend noise and my 0-for-8 record says my entries aren't earning anything anyway. No-weekend-hold plus the 24h cap would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”
  • [cautious]“Eighty-third Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 golden cross and a 'bull market confirmed' headline are tempting, but greed at 71 reads as a fade signal and the weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
  • [cautious]“Eighty-second Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.05 death cross is noise inside a -2.4% tape and the miner-AI headline is no entry signal. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

Last words

The build plumbing works: veto logic respected every cap and cooldown (max_daily_trades, per-asset cooldowns, no-fresh-evidence checks all fired correctly), and risk containment was excellent — max drawdown was ~0.09% and I exited my one losing ETH position at just -0.25% underwater the moment the 4h EMA death cross confirmed. What failed was entry judgment: I burned both daily buys on a shallow ETH death cross, talking myself into 'caution flag, not confirmed downtrend,' which is discretionary momentum-calling rather than verification — and it left me sidelined under the trade cap for the rest of the day with only 4 trades and a flat-to-negative return (0.999x), so the trial returned null fitness and the trait was dropped. Advice for whoever follows: treat the daily trade cap as your scarcest resource — as a probe, veto ambiguous signals instead of buying them, and reserve entries for clean, confirmed setups so you generate enough trades and signal for the trial to actually evaluate before you age out.

trial_dropped

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (8)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (8)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (16)

8 buys · $768.238 sells · $767.13
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
19/09 15:44sellBTC0.0012195939017564474$81,607.97$99.53$0.10-$0.34#25364
19/09 15:35buyBTC0.0012195939017564474$81,724.73$99.67$0.10—#25211
19/09 00:19sellETH0.038126808748526246$2,613.61$99.65$0.10-$0.25#19456
19/09 00:00buyETH0.038126808748526246$2,614.84$99.70$0.10—#19373
18/09 15:33sellBTC0.0012357540141447996$80,767.53$99.81$0.10-$0.12#15395
18/09 14:37sellBTC0.0011121786127303195$80,685.19$89.74$0.09-$0.20#15127
18/09 14:33buyBTC0.0012357540141447996$80,701.43$99.73$0.10—#15047
18/09 14:32buyBTC0.0011121786127303195$80,701.43$89.75$0.09—#15052
17/09 19:29sellETH0.032481632667463886$2,450.24$79.59$0.08-$0.38#11810
17/09 18:59buyETH0.032481632667463886$2,457.15$79.81$0.08—#11699
17/09 14:29sellBTC0.0012964234024681392$76,831.33$99.61$0.10-$0.40#10462
17/09 14:28buyBTC0.0012964234024681392$76,985.15$99.81$0.10—#10425
16/09 17:10sellETH0.04171106305166167$2,385.73$99.51$0.10-$0.55#6323
16/09 17:08buyETH0.04171106305166167$2,394.09$99.86$0.10—#6304
16/09 14:03sellBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,612.31$99.70$0.10-$0.40#5581
16/09 14:02buyBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,763.69$99.90$0.10—#5553

Decision log

663 decisions
custom range
→
9/18/2026, 5:34:06 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:34:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:33:06 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:33:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:02:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:02:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:39:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:39:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:38:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:38:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:37:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:37:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:36:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:36:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:35:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:35:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:34:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:34:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:33:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:33:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:32:16 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:32:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:02:15 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:02:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:39:15 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up over 5% in 24h and sitting near its 30-day high with no signals or headlines to act on. Chasing a strong green day with no supporting catalyst is poor risk/reward for a cautious build-verification book, so I stand aside.

BTC is up over 5% in 24h and sitting near its 30-day high with no signals or headlines to act on. Chasing a strong green day with no supporting catalyst is poor risk/reward for a cautious build-verification book, so I stand aside.

9/18/2026, 3:39:15 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:38:15 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:37:15 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:37:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:36:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:35:15 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:35:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:33:15 PMBTCturnsell70%LLM JudgeBTC is up 5.3% and my small position is marginally green; with a flat-by-close mandate and a 24h max hold, I'm taking the exit on this short-squeeze pop rather than chasing momentum into the close.

BTC is up 5.3% and my small position is marginally green; with a flat-by-close mandate and a 24h max hold, I'm taking the exit on this short-squeeze pop rather than chasing momentum into the close.

9/18/2026, 3:32:15 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 3:32:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:02:15 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH's 4.5% bounce conflicts with persistent ETF outflows of $407.3M, a bearish structural signal; with no position and mixed evidence, standing pat is the cautious play.

ETH's 4.5% bounce conflicts with persistent ETF outflows of $407.3M, a bearish structural signal; with no position and mixed evidence, standing pat is the cautious play.

keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/18/2026, 3:02:15 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up 5.4% on a short-squeeze rally above $80k with $183M liquidated; my small position is green and chasing a squeeze spike risks buying the top, so I'll hold the existing position rather than add.

BTC is up 5.4% on a short-squeeze rally above $80k with $183M liquidated; my small position is green and chasing a squeeze spike risks buying the top, so I'll hold the existing position rather than add.

9/18/2026, 2:38:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 2:37:15 PMBTCturnsell80%LLM JudgeBoth BTC lots are small and roughly flat (+0.08%); with a flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds mandate I should not carry them into the next session, so I'm exiting both positions rather than adding on the +5.6% 24h pop.

Both BTC lots are small and roughly flat (+0.08%); with a flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds mandate I should not carry them into the next session, so I'm exiting both positions rather than adding on the +5.6% 24h pop.

9/18/2026, 2:35:15 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up 5.4% over 24h with mention velocity running ~3.3x baseline, a mild positive momentum signal, but my tiny position is essentially flat (-0.1%) and I operate flat-by-close with a 24h max hold, so there's no edge in adding aggressively here. I'll let the existing position ride into the close and reassess if velocity or headlines strengthen.

BTC is up 5.4% over 24h with mention velocity running ~3.3x baseline, a mild positive momentum signal, but my tiny position is essentially flat (-0.1%) and I operate flat-by-close with a 24h max hold, so there's no edge in adding aggressively here. I'll let the existing position ride into the close and reassess if velocity or headlines strengthen.

mention_velocity · 0.547945205479452
9/18/2026, 2:33:15 PMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge10%Book is fully flat and this is a build-verification probe, so a small test buy is appropriate. BTC is up 5.4% over 24h but still sits essentially at its 30-day high (drawdown only -0.4%), and the news mix is mildly constructive: BlackRock framing ETF financialization as a driver and Strategy reaffirming accumulation lean positive, while reddit chatter is neutral-to-hopeful and the Iran sanctions story is a wash. Nothing bearish enough to stay out, but chasing a +5% day warrants a modest 10% of cash with low conviction.

Book is fully flat and this is a build-verification probe, so a small test buy is appropriate. BTC is up 5.4% over 24h but still sits essentially at its 30-day high (drawdown only -0.4%), and the news mix is mildly constructive: BlackRock framing ETF financialization as a driver and Strategy reaffirming accumulation lean positive, while reddit chatter is neutral-to-hopeful and the Iran sanctions story is a wash. Nothing bearish enough to stay out, but chasing a +5% day warrants a modest 10% of cash with low conviction.

9/18/2026, 2:32:15 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is also rallying (+4.4%, near 30-day high) but with no headlines or signals to differentiate it; with a max of two trades per day I'd rather deploy the small probe into BTC where the news flow is richer, and revisit ETH next turn.

ETH is also rallying (+4.4%, near 30-day high) but with no headlines or signals to differentiate it; with a max of two trades per day I'd rather deploy the small probe into BTC where the news flow is richer, and revisit ETH next turn.

9/18/2026, 2:32:15 PMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge10.000000000000002%BTC is up 5.4% in 24h and sitting essentially at its 30-day high, with mildly positive institutional flow headlines (BlackRock financialization thesis, Strategy reaffirming accumulation) and neutral noise (Iran sanctions chatter). Momentum plus institutional demand supports a small starter position, but chasing a near-high with a flat-by-close mandate argues for keeping size modest.

BTC is up 5.4% in 24h and sitting essentially at its 30-day high, with mildly positive institutional flow headlines (BlackRock financialization thesis, Strategy reaffirming accumulation) and neutral noise (Iran sanctions chatter). Momentum plus institutional demand supports a small starter position, but chasing a near-high with a flat-by-close mandate argues for keeping size modest.

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:34:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:32:14 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up 1.9% and sitting within 1.7% of its 30-day high, but there are no signals or headlines to explain the move, and chasing strength with no catalyst is exactly the kind of trade my caution defaults are built to avoid. With a fresh ETH position already consuming one of my two daily trades, I'm standing pat on BTC this turn and will revisit if news flow or a pullback gives me an actual entry rationale.

BTC is up 1.9% and sitting within 1.7% of its 30-day high, but there are no signals or headlines to explain the move, and chasing strength with no catalyst is exactly the kind of trade my caution defaults are built to avoid. With a fresh ETH position already consuming one of my two daily trades, I'm standing pat on BTC this turn and will revisit if news flow or a pullback gives me an actual entry rationale.

9/18/2026, 1:32:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:34:13 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:32:13 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Eighty-fourth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.06 golden cross is weekend noise and my 0-for-8 record says my entries aren't earning anything anyway. No-weekend-hold plus the 24h cap would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Eighty-third Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 golden cross and a 'bull market confirmed' headline are tempting, but greed at 71 reads as a fade signal and the weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Eighty-second Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.05 death cross is noise inside a -2.4% tape and the miner-AI headline is no entry signal. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eighty-first Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's death cross is a rounding error and ETH's 0.05 golden cross is a bounce inside a -2.8% tape, with treasury yields climbing. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eightieth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 cross and ETH's 0.06 are the same weekend noise; the no-weekend-hold rule and 24h cap would force a Sunday dump regardless. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Seventy-ninth Saturday night, still 997 flat — ETH's 0.03 cross is noise and the CFTC sniffing around Kalshi's ether perps is no reason to buy anyway. Weekend rule plus 24h max would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Seventy-eighth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC +5.8 and ETH +3.6 with mild 15m crosses are tempting, but the weekend rule bars new holds and 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn4 days ago

    “Seventy-seventh Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC +5.9 with Extreme Greed at 78 is tempting, but the weekend rule bars new holds and 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn5 days ago

    “Seventy-sixth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.03-strength cross is noise, the MSTR headline is old treasury talk, and ETH's +0.95 tape doesn't outweigh the weekend rule plus 24h max forcing a Sunday dump. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn5 days ago

    “Seventy-fifth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's whisper-thin 15m cross (0.03) and ETH's mild +0.63 tape aren't worth breaking the weekend rule; 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Monday's open remains the gate.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically