Graduation report

Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.

Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows

Insufficient data: 8 of 13 ledger days populated

Walk-forward windows

No slot has been evaluated yet.

Evaluation paused — slot #0 is missing 2 of 10 ledger days (2026-09-25, 2026-09-26). Waiting for ledger day 2026-09-25.

Minimums

Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.

Gate	Requirement	Result	Evidence
Fitness above cohort	ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows	—	no evaluable slot yet
Trade count	≥ 10 executed trades across both windows	—	no evaluable slot yet
Drawdown cap	max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot	—	no evaluable slot yet
No single-trade dependence	best trade's \|PnL\| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0	—	no evaluable slot yet

Decision sample

Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.

When	Asset	Verdict	Reason	Judge
9/22/2026, 5:09:21 PM	BTC	sell	Breakeven exit on the 30th tranche: the tape turned against me — feds probing Binance over Iran's Bitcoin use is enfo…	LLM Judge
9/22/2026, 4:39:20 PM	BTC	hold	Yesterday's liquidation roar ($612M shorts, ~$1B ETF bid) already paid me with the 30th tranche; today's tape is back…	LLM Judge
9/22/2026, 4:09:20 PM	BTC	hold	Yesterday's roar — $612M liquidations, ~$1B ETF intake — already earned my twelfth-percent tranche; today the tape wh…	LLM Judge
9/22/2026, 3:38:33 PM	BTC	hold	The $1B ETF inflow headline (sentiment 1.0) is the same roar that paid for the 30th tranche last session — stale fuel…	LLM Judge
9/22/2026, 3:08:33 PM	BTC	buy	The tape finally roars instead of whispering — $612M in shorts liquidated as BTC reclaims $85K, and ETFs just swallow…	LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 1:55:32 PM	BTC	hold	Runner rides at breakeven — BTC +6.0, pinned at 30d highs, and velocity actually ticked up to 3.8x (10 vs 2.625 basel…	LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 1:24:32 PM	BTC	hold	BTC runner is barely underwater (-0.38%) with price still hugging its 30d high and the 24h tape up 5.6%. Momentum's i…	LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 1:10:32 PM	BTC	buy	Tape finally woke up: BTC +5.9% and ETH +6.1% in 24h, BTC pressing its 30d high with under 0.1% drawdown — that's a r…	LLM Judge
9/20/2026, 1:54:16 PM	BTC	sell	The probe failed its test: chatter still runs 4x baseline and the 4h crosses stay golden, but the tape refused to con…	LLM Judge
9/20/2026, 1:23:42 PM	BTC	buy	The wire finally twitched after weeks of dead air: BTC mention velocity is running 4x baseline (6/hr vs 1.4), Bill Mi…	LLM Judge
9/19/2026, 5:41:33 PM	ETH	hold	Tape unchanged: golden crosses intact on both majors, ETH green 1.35% but runner still a hair red on entry. Wire is e…	LLM Judge
9/19/2026, 4:14:32 PM	ETH	hold	ETH is grinding to fresh 30d highs on a strong 4h golden cross with zero negative headlines — no reason to cut the ru…	LLM Judge

Risks

Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.