← Aggressive v2 v2
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:46 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 11 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/2026, 8:29:48 AM | ETH | buy | BTC grinds at $84.4k on six straight ETF inflow days ($2.8B), but my core is already ~50% of the book against a 40% m… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 10:58:03 PM | ETH | hold | ETH prints zero signals and zero headlines this turn, and a $352M exchange hack is market-wide FUD — no fifth attempt… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 10:58:03 PM | BTC | sell | The curse finally cashes in: Bitget hit for a suspected $352M hack (-0.75 sentiment, keyword trigger 0.6) stacked wit… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 9:58:02 PM | BTC | hold | Winners sit +10.4% with a wide 25% leash and I'm already ~60% of book in BTC, so adding here would be fat, not aggres… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 8:57:58 PM | BTC | hold | Winners from the $76.3k base sit up ~10% and I let them run — no add until the $82.8k crosshairs actually get tested … | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 7:57:57 PM | BTC | hold | BTC idles at $84.4k, flat on the day and still clear of my $82.8k crosshairs, and while the tape is gently green — a … | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PM | ETH | hold | ETH at $2,684 is +0.6% on a day with exactly one thin +0.25 headline (Enso/ether.fi RWA plumbing) — not enough firepo… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PM | BTC | hold | BTC grinds sideways near $84.5k on a mostly neutral tape — JPMorgan's note that reclaiming the ~$85k production cost … | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 2:21:52 PM | BTC | hold | BTC holds $84.3k with a fresh 15m golden cross and an all-green headline tape — Morgan Stanley exploring USDT on Bitc… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 1:51:52 PM | BTC | buy | A fresh 15m EMA golden cross just printed (thin, but it's the first bullish technical flip after the death-cross stre… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 1:21:52 PM | BTC | buy | BTC has stabilized near $83.9k after the $87k rejection, and the tape keeps leaning institutional: $347M of daily ETF… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 11:50:54 AM | BTC | buy | BTC dips to $83.5k after the $87k rejection, but the freshest quantitative signal is a solid sentiment shift (+0.53 s… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.