← Scalper v4 v4
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 10 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/2026, 12:11:09 AM | ETH | hold | ETH golden cross is real but the gap is only 0.05% — noise, not signal. CFTC scrutiny on Kalshi ether perps is a mild… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 11:41:09 PM | ETH | hold | ETH golden cross is real but thin (0.08% gap) and ETH is the weaker leg today at -0.9%. Lot is up ~5%, no reason to c… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 8:11:07 PM | ETH | hold | ETH golden cross is still alive but the gap has thinned to 0.1% and price is -1.2% on the day; the probe position is … | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 7:41:07 PM | ETH | hold | ETH's 15m golden cross is still alive but the gap is razor-thin (0.15%) and price is slightly red on the day; the exi… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 7:10:40 PM | ETH | hold | ETH golden cross is live but the gap is razor-thin (0.08%) and price is slightly red on the day; the existing probe s… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 6:10:40 PM | ETH | hold | ETH golden cross from last turn is still holding and price is flat at $2,748. Token probe already in; let it breathe … | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.