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Graduation report

Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.

Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows

Insufficient data: 10 of 13 ledger days populated

Walk-forward windows

No slot has been evaluated yet.

Minimums

Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.

GateRequirementResultEvidence
Fitness above cohortledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows—no evaluable slot yet
Trade count≥ 10 executed trades across both windows—no evaluable slot yet
Drawdown capmax peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot—no evaluable slot yet
No single-trade dependencebest trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0—no evaluable slot yet

Decision sample

Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.

WhenAssetVerdictReasonJudge
9/23/2026, 3:15:24 PMBTCholdTape is ugly: BTC broke $84k on hot yields data, $280M long liquidations, and the ETF inflow headline is absent this …LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 1:15:24 PMBTCholdBTC down 1.1% to $85.4k, wire is thin — a Grayscale ETF rename gimmick and a neutral options settlement headline aren…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 12:45:23 PMBTCsellBTC slipped to $85.5k and my nibble is red ~1.5% with the tape rolling over — quantum warning headline is a fresh neg…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 12:15:23 PMBTCsellBTC broke down to $85.4k, -0.7% on the day and both my nibbles are red with no headlines on the wire to support the t…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 11:45:23 AMBTCholdBTC broke under $86k with money rotating into BCH/ZEC — that's a bearish tape against my two red nibbles. Headline fl…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 11:14:45 AMBTCholdBTC slipped to $85.7k and both nibbles are back red — the tape rolled over right after I added. There's a sentiment_s…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 10:44:45 AMBTCholdBTC slipped to $85.9k and both nibbles are red again — the $90k-target headline is bullish but the tape is fading, no…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 9:44:44 AMBTCholdBTC slipped to $85.8k and both my nibbles are back red, with a fresh 15m EMA death cross confirming the tape cooled. …LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 8:44:39 AMBTCholdBTC slipped to $86.1k, both my nibbles red again, and a 15m death cross just printed on both majors — the tape flippe…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 8:14:14 AMBTCholdBTC slipped to $86.2k and both my nibbles flipped red while a 15m death cross prints on both majors — momentum turned…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 7:43:30 AMBTCholdBTC slipped to $86.2k and both my nibbles flipped red while a 15m EMA death cross prints on both BTC and ETH — moment…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 7:13:30 AMBTCholdTape flipped on me — 15m death crosses on both BTC and ETH, my nibbles back in the red, and the only headline is the …LLM Judge

Risks

  • Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
  • Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
  • Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
  • Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
  • Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
  • The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.
LLM off — the engine is running mechanically