← Newsdriven Scalper v9 v9
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 8 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Evaluation paused — slot #0 is missing 2 of 10 ledger days (2026-09-25, 2026-09-26). Waiting for ledger day 2026-09-25.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/2026, 8:17:14 PM | ETH | hold | ETH is down 2.8% on the day and 4.7% off its 30d high with zero fresh headlines — the golden-cross probe thesis that … | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 8:14:14 AM | ETH | hold | ETH just flipped to a 15m death cross and my probe is slightly underwater — the golden-cross thesis that justified fo… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 6:43:10 AM | ETH | hold | ETH probe is green and the tape is up on both assets, but fresh 15m death crosses just printed on ETH and BTC — short… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 5:12:08 AM | ETH | hold | ETH probe finally paying — position green +0.5%, golden cross intact, and BTC's $1B ETF inflow headline lifts the who… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 2:42:07 AM | ETH | hold | ETH probe is green and the tape is quiet — no fresh headlines, no new ETH signals, BTC's golden cross is threadbare a… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 12:11:09 AM | ETH | buy | ETH's 15m golden cross persists and price is flat-to-green intraday while BTC drifts; the CFTC/Kalshi scrutiny headli… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 6:05:59 AM | ETH | sell | ETH stub is underwater (-1.6%) and momentum has migrated to BTC on BlackRock-led ETF inflows; the Trueo migration hea… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 3:05:29 AM | ETH | hold | First crack in the tape: 15m EMA death cross on both BTC and ETH, ETH slipping to $2,740 and my small probe is underw… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 2:35:29 AM | ETH | hold | First crack in the tape: 15m EMA death cross on both BTC and ETH, ETH slipping to $2,745 and my probe is a hair red. … | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 1:35:28 AM | ETH | hold | First crack in the tape: 15m EMA death cross on both BTC and ETH, ETH slipped from $2,774 to $2,752 and my small book… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 12:05:28 AM | ETH | buy | ETH holds $2,772 with the momentum cross intact and BTC's $86.5k reclaim keeps the broad bid deep; Fear & Greed at 78… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.