← Balanced v2 v2
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:46 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 11 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/2026, 10:13:49 AM | ETH | hold | ETH prints the stronger of the two death crosses (0.23) and sags -3.7% on the day, -6% off the 30d high, with only th… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 10:13:49 AM | BTC | hold | BTC slides below $83K on hawkish Fed repricing (four hikes priced by mid-2027) and prints a fresh 15m death cross — t… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 3:12:18 AM | ETH | hold | ETH prints another 15m golden cross, but the gap is a razor-thin 0.01% — noise, not a note worth money. The bullish h… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 3:12:18 AM | BTC | hold | BTC sags 2.8% on the day into the $16B expiry tape, and the only fresh note is a neutral reddit whisper about hardwar… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AM | ETH | hold | The prior thin adds at $2,641 and $2,645 are green at $2,681, which validates the dip-buying rhythm, but ETH is -2.6%… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AM | BTC | hold | My three BTC slots from $81.5K sit +3.4% unrealized — well short of the +50% target, far above the -15% stop — so the… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.