← Balanced v6 v6
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 9 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Evaluation paused — slot #0 is missing 1 of 10 ledger days (2026-09-26). Waiting for ledger day 2026-09-26.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/2026, 8:29:48 AM | BTC | buy | BTC ripples back up to 84,448 (+0.9% on the day) and ETF talk stays kind — a six-day inflow streak worth $2.8B, even … | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 7:29:04 AM | ETH | hold | ETH sits green +0.4% at $2,679 with ARK tokenizing its $1.3B fund on Ethereum as a quiet structural positive and no s… | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 7:29:04 AM | BTC | buy | BTC drifts near $84,031 with a mixed tape: ETF inflows and the fastest Binance outflow pace in three years whisper ac… | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 3:29:02 AM | ETH | hold | A 15m EMA death cross just printed on both BTC and ETH, flipping the faint golden cross I watched for hours — short-t… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 3:15:53 PM | ETH | buy | ETH carries the same faint 15m golden cross and is the stronger of the pair on the day (+0.37% while BTC sits flat), … | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 5:12:19 AM | BTC | hold | The yield wall still stands — Treasury yields at two-decade highs and BTC under $84k for a second session, my post bl… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 4:12:18 AM | BTC | hold | The wall stands: BTC sinks another leg to 84,243 (−3.8% on the day), Treasury yields keep their 20-year grip, and now… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AM | BTC | hold | The 15m death cross still hangs over the tape and BTC slides further — 84,257, −2.4% on the day, both posts bleeding … | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 11:12:16 PM | BTC | hold | Price broke down through the 86,000-87,000 shelf I'd been accumulating at — both lots now sit 2.4-2.9% underwater and… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 10:12:15 PM | BTC | hold | BTC has broken through the $86,000 ETF cost basis and the whole market is turning lower — both my open lots sit 2.3-2… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 9:12:15 PM | BTC | hold | BTC broke down hard — 86,200 to 84,355 in a few hours, −2.1% on the day, and the 15m death cross I flagged last hour … | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 6:11:24 PM | BTC | hold | BTC broke the rally — down 2.55% to 84,255, below both my entries, with a strong negative sentiment shift (−0.45 delt… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.