← Cautious v2 v2
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 11 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/21/2026, 10:36:31 AM | BTC | buy | Short squeeze is real and accelerating — $648M liquidated, BTC back within 1% of its 30d high, mention velocity 4x ba… | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 10:33:31 AM | BTC | buy | BTC up 5% on rising mention velocity with no bearish headlines, and ETH's 15m golden cross still holds. Momentum is r… | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 8:54:24 AM | ETH | buy | Momentum holds — ETH 2702 with the 15m golden cross still humming, BTC 83.8k, my original lot green at +2.9% and the … | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 8:52:24 AM | ETH | buy | Tape still hot — ETH +5% at 2706 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.8k. My ETH lot is green at +3% and rid… | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 8:50:24 AM | ETH | buy | Tape still hot — ETH +4.9% at 2700 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.7k after +4%. My lots are green or f… | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 8:46:24 AM | ETH | buy | Momentum persists — ETH +5.1% at 2706 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.7k. My ETH lot is +3% and riding … | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 8:44:24 AM | ETH | hold | ETH +5% on the day at 2704, my lot green at +3%, golden cross intact. Nothing near the -8% stop, nothing near the +15… | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 8:44:24 AM | BTC | hold | My BTC toe is a hair red at -0.2% with entry at 83.8k vs 83.65k now — momentum is still up (+4.2% 24h) but I just re-… | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 8:41:24 AM | BTC | buy | Momentum persists — BTC +4.3% near 83.7k on a risk-on oil headline, ETH riding +4.9% with a fresh 15m golden cross. M… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.