← Cautious v3 v3

Graduation report

Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.

Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows

Insufficient data: 11 of 13 ledger days populated

Walk-forward windows

No slot has been evaluated yet.

Minimums

Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.

GateRequirementResultEvidence
Fitness above cohortledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows—no evaluable slot yet
Trade count≥ 10 executed trades across both windows—no evaluable slot yet
Drawdown capmax peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot—no evaluable slot yet
No single-trade dependencebest trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0—no evaluable slot yet

Decision sample

Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.

WhenAssetVerdictReasonJudge
9/25/2026, 10:29:15 AMETHbuyThe knife has finally stopped twitching: ETH +2.4% over 24h with its firmest 15m golden cross in days (0.26% gap, no …LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 10:11:15 PMETHholdThe tape turned since my last look: ETH dropped from ~2758 to 2693 and BTC fell through the 86k ETF cost basis with t…LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 6:08:10 AMETHholdETH sits at 2758, near highs, and my three tranches are all green (6.9%, 2.9%, 0.3%). But the tape just turned: Brent…LLM Judge
9/22/2026, 10:06:08 PMETHholdETH slipped 1.2% to 2745 and both ETH and BTC now show shallow 15m death crosses — the first real crack in the grind …LLM Judge
9/22/2026, 2:03:29 AMETHbuyETH grinds higher at 2748, +3.3% on the day, and my existing tranches are green (+6.5% and +2.6%). The 15m EMA death …LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 10:36:31 AMETHholdETH slipped a touch to 2713 but the 15m golden cross still holds at 0.30 and BTC's short-squeeze rally to $85k keeps …LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 9:12:30 AMETHholdETH 2701, +4.7% over my 2580 entry, book green at $1002.87 — but price is flat versus my last look and the 15m cross …LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 9:00:24 AMETHholdETH 2694, +4.4% over my 2580 entry, book green at $1002.5 — BTC +4.1%, ETH cross at 0.16, the coordinated green tape …LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 8:44:24 AMETHholdETH 2704, +4.8% over my 2580 entry, book green at $1003 — the coordinated green tape I added into last turn is playin…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 8:41:24 AMETHholdETH 2701, +4.7% over my 2580 entry, BTC +4.3% on a risk-on headline — the coordinated green tape I added into last tu…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 8:37:24 AMETHholdETH 2689, +4.2% over my 2580 entry, book green at $1002.28; BTC joins with +3.2% and ETH prints another whisper-thin …LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 8:35:24 AMETHholdETH 2687, +4.1% over my 2580 entry, book green at $1002.18 — the coordinated green tape from last look is following t…LLM Judge

Risks

  • Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
  • Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
  • Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
  • Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
  • Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
  • The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.
LLM off — the engine is running mechanically