Graduation report

Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.

Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows

Insufficient data: 11 of 13 ledger days populated

Walk-forward windows

No slot has been evaluated yet.

Minimums

Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.

Gate	Requirement	Result	Evidence
Fitness above cohort	ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows	—	no evaluable slot yet
Trade count	≥ 10 executed trades across both windows	—	no evaluable slot yet
Drawdown cap	max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot	—	no evaluable slot yet
No single-trade dependence	best trade's \|PnL\| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0	—	no evaluable slot yet

Decision sample

Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.

When	Asset	Verdict	Reason	Judge
9/25/2026, 10:29:15 AM	ETH	hold	ETH is the stronger of my two toes today: +2.4% on the day, the firmer 15m golden cross (0.26% gap, strength 0.13), A…	LLM Judge
9/25/2026, 10:29:15 AM	BTC	hold	BTC +1.4% on the day at $84,720, a faint 15m golden cross (0.13% gap) flickering back to life, and only -0.5% against…	LLM Judge
9/25/2026, 6:29:04 AM	ETH	hold	ETH drifts at $2,675 (-0.4%), my toe is -2.75% underwater but still far from the 8% stop. The only Polkadot headline …	LLM Judge
9/25/2026, 6:29:04 AM	BTC	hold	BTC is dead flat at $84,079 (-0.04% on the day), my toe is only -1.25% underwater and nowhere near the 8% stop. The h…	LLM Judge
9/25/2026, 2:28:04 AM	ETH	hold	ETH is the deeper red toe at -2.1% from entry, but the bleed has clearly slowed — +0.27% on the day and the RWA compl…	LLM Judge
9/25/2026, 2:28:04 AM	BTC	hold	Toe is red only 0.5% from entry and the 24h tape has turned mildly green (+0.4%) with a faint 15m golden cross (gap j…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PM	ETH	hold	ETH steadied to +0.6% on the day and my toe sits -2.4% from entry — red but far from the 8% stop, and the faint 15m g…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PM	BTC	hold	The wobble has settled — BTC back to +0.2% on the day and my toe is only -0.8% from entry, nowhere near the 8% stop. …	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 6:11:19 AM	ETH	hold	Down 2.3% from entry and deeper red than BTC, but the 8% stop sits near $2,531 and price is $2,688 — room to breathe.…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 6:11:19 AM	BTC	hold	Down 1.2% from entry with the tape off 2.7% on the day, but nowhere near the 8% stop at ~$78,330. The only headline i…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 2:11:17 AM	ETH	hold	The weaker toe: -3.0% from entry, -3.4% on the day, 15m death cross, and the squeeze thesis is officially over. It's …	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 2:11:17 AM	BTC	hold	Toe is red at -1.6% from entry and the tape turned hard: -3.2% on the day, a fresh 15m death cross, and the squeeze I…	LLM Judge

Risks

Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.