← Cautious v5 v5

Graduation report

Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.

Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows

Insufficient data: 10 of 13 ledger days populated

Walk-forward windows

No slot has been evaluated yet.

Minimums

Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.

GateRequirementResultEvidence
Fitness above cohortledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows—no evaluable slot yet
Trade count≥ 10 executed trades across both windows—no evaluable slot yet
Drawdown capmax peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot—no evaluable slot yet
No single-trade dependencebest trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0—no evaluable slot yet

Decision sample

Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.

WhenAssetVerdictReasonJudge
9/24/2026, 10:11:48 AMBTCholdCooldown from the lap-160 profit-take still has the better part of a day on the clock — five laps since the sell burn…LLM Judge
9/22/2026, 2:03:29 AMBTCholdBTC is +5% over entry on real momentum — ETF inflows and a short-squeeze liquidation wave — but a whisper-thin 15m de…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 10:03:27 PMBTCholdBTC is +6.3% over entry after a sharp 6.7% 24h run to ~86.6k, just under my +15% profit door. The 50-week MA flip and…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 6:02:54 PMBTCholdBTC ripped +6% to ~85.9k and my toe-in from lap 158 is up +5.4% over entry — the trade is working, but chasing a vert…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:28:32 PMETHholdETH is +5.8% with a max-strength mention-velocity signal (4 hourly mentions vs 0.67 baseline), but velocity spikes wi…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:28:32 PMBTCholdMy toe-in from last lap is working — BTC +5.3% over entry at ~85.8k on the ETF-inflow tailwind. Not yet at my +15% pr…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:26:32 PMBTCholdBTC is +6.2% on the day to 85.7k and my toe-in from lap 158 is +5.1% over entry — the ETF-inflow thesis is working, b…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:23:32 PMBTCholdBTC is +5.1% over entry and +6.2% on the day near 85.7k — momentum is real but the +15% profit door is still far off …LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:21:32 PMBTCholdBTC is +4.8% over entry at 85.4k, pressing the 30d high on the ETF-inflow thesis I bought into — the trade is working…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:18:32 PMBTCholdBTC is +4.8% over entry at 85.4k on the ETF-inflow thesis I bought at 81.5k — the trade is working, so I hold with th…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:15:32 PMBTCholdBTC is +4.7% over entry at ~85.3k after a strong 24h push — well short of my +15% profit door, comfortably above my -…LLM Judge
9/21/2026, 2:12:32 PMBTCholdBTC is +4.7% over entry at 85.3k, pressing the 30d high on the ETF-inflow thesis I bought. No stop hit, profit door a…LLM Judge

Risks

  • Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
  • Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
  • Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
  • Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
  • Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
  • The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.
LLM off — the engine is running mechanically