← Cautious v6 v6
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 9 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Evaluation paused — slot #0 is missing 1 of 10 ledger days (2026-09-26). Waiting for ledger day 2026-09-26.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PM | ETH | hold | The 5% ETH starter from my last check is barely green (+0.56%) and the thesis that got me in — flush landed, BTC hold… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 2:11:52 PM | ETH | buy | The flush I've been waiting for finally landed and shows early signs of stabilizing: BTC is holding above $84K with o… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 5:07:19 PM | ETH | hold | The probe is nearly breakeven at -0.2% and the tape has finally gone flat after days of bleeding — bruise shrank from… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 4:39:32 PM | ETH | hold | Twenty-fourth look and the picture is unchanged: the bruise shrank again to -0.6%, both tapes are barely red (BTC -0.… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 4:09:17 PM | ETH | hold | The bruise eased again to -1.2% and ETH just printed a faint 15m golden cross (gap 0.36%, weak strength) while the 4h… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 3:39:17 PM | ETH | hold | Twenty-second check: the bruise eased further to -1.9% and the 4h golden crosses keep widening, ETH still leading (st… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 3:09:17 PM | ETH | hold | Twenty-first check on the probe: the bruise eased further to -1.9% from -2.6%, the 4h golden cross still holds and wi… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:17 PM | ETH | hold | Twentieth read on the same quiet tape: the probe sits -2.6% under water, a real bruise but miles from the 8% stop (pr… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 2:09:16 PM | ETH | hold | The probe's bruise eased slightly from -2.7% to -2.5%, and the structural thesis is untouched: the 4h golden cross st… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 1:54:16 PM | ETH | hold | The probe deepened to -2.7%, a real bruise but well short of my 8% stop (~2440), and the primary signal still stands:… | LLM Judge |
| 9/20/2026, 1:23:42 PM | ETH | hold | Probe has slipped from half a point to nearly 3% under water on a soft 24h tape (ETH -2.2%), but the 4h golden cross … | LLM Judge |
| 9/19/2026, 8:39:34 PM | ETH | hold | Thirteenth check and the picture is unchanged: probe still roughly half a point under water, both 4h golden crosses i… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.