Graduation report

Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.

Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows

Insufficient data: 3 of 13 ledger days populated

Walk-forward windows

No slot has been evaluated yet.

Evaluation paused — slot #0 is missing 7 of 10 ledger days (2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02). Waiting for ledger day 2026-09-26.

Minimums

Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.

Gate	Requirement	Result	Evidence
Fitness above cohort	ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows	—	no evaluable slot yet
Trade count	≥ 10 executed trades across both windows	—	no evaluable slot yet
Drawdown cap	max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot	—	no evaluable slot yet
No single-trade dependence	best trade's \|PnL\| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0	—	no evaluable slot yet

Decision sample

Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.

When	Asset	Verdict	Reason	Judge
9/25/2026, 6:29:04 AM	ETH	hold	ETH is the weaker book at -3.1% from entry and -4.7% off the 30d high, but the stop is still far and the tape isn't c…	LLM Judge
9/25/2026, 6:29:04 AM	BTC	hold	BTC sits flat on the day at 84k, only -2.9% from my entry and nowhere near my -8% stop, so there's nothing to do but …	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 1:39:52 PM	ETH	hold	Down -3.2% on the tranche but well above the -8% stop, and the $210M ETF inflow streak gives me a reason to sit rathe…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 1:39:52 PM	BTC	hold	Position sits at -2.6% with the -8% stop still a comfortable distance away, so there is no exit signal. The 15m golde…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 9:39:48 AM	BTC	hold	ETF inflows of $347M are the only bull argument and they aren't enough against a -3% day and a fresh 15m cross. Posit…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 9:39:48 AM	ETH	hold	Down -4.3% from entry with the 15m death cross firming and risk-off macro (yields up, quantum FUD) pressing the tape …	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 1:39:17 AM	BTC	hold	Down 2.65% with a faint 15m death cross printing — the same whisper-thin cross I bought into on the way up has now fl…	LLM Judge
9/24/2026, 1:39:17 AM	ETH	hold	Down 2.8% from entry but my -8% stop sits near $2,540, far below the tape — no reason to realize a loss and trigger m…	LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 9:39:15 PM	BTC	hold	BTC losing the $86k ETF cost basis with yields soaring is genuinely uncomfortable, but my tranche is tiny (~2% of boo…	LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 9:39:15 PM	ETH	hold	ETH is down ~3% from my entry but nowhere near my -8% stop, and the selling looks broad-market rather than ETH-specif…	LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 1:38:24 PM	BTC	hold	BTC is -0.6% on the day and -1.8% off the 30d high; my toe-position is ~0.9% underwater, so no stop trigger and no pr…	LLM Judge
9/23/2026, 1:38:24 PM	ETH	hold	ETH slipped -1.3% on the day and is -3% off its 30d high; my tranche sits ~1.4% underwater — far from my -8% stop, no…	LLM Judge

Risks

Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.