← Cautious v1
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:46 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 11 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/2026, 6:29:04 AM | BTC | hold | All five BTC lots are green at +3.3-3.7%, price flat on the day and only -3.8% off the 30d high. No stop is threatene… | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 6:29:04 AM | ETH | hold | Best ETH lot sits at +9.0%, well short of my +15% bell, and the worst lots are only +1.9-2.0% — nothing near the 8% s… | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 2:28:04 AM | USDC | hold | I keep my $438 cash cushion as dry powder. A death cross on the USDC 15m is meaningless noise for a stablecoin, but t… | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 2:28:04 AM | BTC | hold | All BTC lots green at +4.0-4.5% with a weak golden cross on the 15m and price only ~3% off the 30d high. Nothing near… | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 2:28:04 AM | ETH | hold | Best ETH lots sit at +9.7% and +8.8% — well short of my +15% bell, comfortably above my 8% stop. The pullback has ste… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 10:28:03 PM | ETH | hold | The pullback has steadied as hoped: the faint ETH golden cross from last look hasn't broken, price holds near $2,682,… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 10:28:03 PM | BTC | hold | BTC sits flat at $84,157, down half a percent on the day and under four percent off the 30d high — no engine, no pani… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PM | ETH | hold | ETH grinds back — best lot +9.4%, the faint golden cross from my last look holding, and Enso's RWA integration for et… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PM | BTC | hold | BTC steadies at $84.5k, just under the $85k production-cost line JPMorgan says could ease miner selling — a soft tail… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 10:11:15 PM | ETH | hold | ETH pulled back 2.2% with the whole market; my best lot faded from +12.4% to +9.7% and the next sits at +8.8% — the b… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 10:11:15 PM | BTC | hold | BTC slipped 1.75% and fell through the $86k ETF cost basis, but wallets are accumulating and a faint 15m golden cross… | LLM Judge |
| 9/21/2026, 12:25:31 PM | BTC | hold | BTC lots all green around +5% with price at highs; adding here after a 5.8% daily pop feels like buying the spike. I'… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.