← Instabuy Probe v3 v3
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 11 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/2026, 8:29:48 AM | BTC | hold | The ETF streak reaches $2.8B but daily inflows slowed to $191M, and a Lightning disillusionment piece drifts through … | LLM Judge |
| 9/25/2026, 4:29:03 AM | BTC | hold | BTC rests. A faint fifteen-minute death cross, price pinned under $84.5k, and both lots carrying ~2.4% unrealized los… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 8:12:48 AM | BTC | hold | BTC at $84,442 is down 1.7% and my two lots from $86k sit ~2% underwater; the 15m golden cross is a hairline (0.096% … | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 6:12:19 AM | BTC | hold | BTC bleeds another -2.6% to $84,180 with no signals and nothing but a neutral quantum-cost curiosity and a keys-not-c… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 2:12:17 AM | BTC | hold | BTC breaks $84k at $83,801, -3.2% on the day with a 15m death cross, and my two lots from the $86k ETF-cost-basis zon… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 11:12:16 PM | BTC | hold | BTC at $84,531 is under both my entries (~$86.1k) and the levels bulls defend; the 15m golden cross is too faint (str… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 11:09:45 AM | BTC | hold | BTC consolidates near $86k with mildly bullish headlines, but my two BTC crumbs are both underwater and the death cro… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 11:04:11 AM | BTC | buy | The 15m golden cross persists above $86k with price up 1.3% on the day and only 1.6% off the 30d high; ETF inflows ne… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 10:04:10 AM | BTC | buy | The 15m golden cross persists with a modest 0.21% gap and BTC holds above $86k on a 2% daily gain, continuing the sam… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.