← Instabuy Probe v6 v6
Graduation report
Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.
Checked 2026-09-25 10:47 UTC · confirmations: 0 of 2 consecutive B-windows
Insufficient data: 9 of 13 ledger days populated
Walk-forward windows
No slot has been evaluated yet.
Evaluation paused — slot #0 is missing 1 of 10 ledger days (2026-09-26). Waiting for ledger day 2026-09-26.
Minimums
Evidence from the most recent evaluable slot.
| Gate | Requirement | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitness above cohort | ledger fitness > 0 and ranked on every day of both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Trade count | ≥ 10 executed trades across both windows | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| Drawdown cap | max peak-to-trough drawdown < 20% within the slot | — | no evaluable slot yet |
| No single-trade dependence | best trade's |PnL| ≤ 50% of the B window's total realized PnL, total > 0 | — | no evaluable slot yet |
Decision sample
Up to 12 most recent judged turn moves — the human-auditable sample.
| When | Asset | Verdict | Reason | Judge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/2026, 10:33:00 AM | ETH | buy | ETH leads the tape at $2,709 (+2.3%) with the firmer 15m golden cross (gap 0.33%), tokenized ARKVX bringing real-worl… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AM | ETH | hold | No signals on ETH, just a neutral Kalshi/CFTC headline, and price is down 2.6% with -4.4% off the 30d high and no sup… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AM | BTC | buy | The 15m death cross is now confirmed and BTC is down 2.4% on the day, slicing back below the $86k ETF cost basis zone… | LLM Judge |
| 9/24/2026, 12:12:16 AM | BTC | buy | The tape leans against me: BTC down 2.5% and slipping from the $85k line, a 15m death cross — hairline though it is a… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 9:12:15 PM | ETH | sell | The last ETH lot is still ~3.5% underwater with zero ether-specific news this turn and ETH falling harder than BTC (-… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 8:12:14 PM | ETH | sell | Both remaining ETH lots are underwater ~3% with no ETH headlines or signals to defend them, and the CFTC shadow over … | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 7:12:14 PM | ETH | sell | Enough. Three lots entered near $2,755-2,770 have bled 3-3.7% for days while ETH underperforms BTC (-3.0% vs -2.1% to… | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 1:06:10 AM | ETH | buy | ETH cross gold again with a wider gap than BTC, both open lots green, tape firm. Another 8% tranche, same rhythm. | LLM Judge |
| 9/23/2026, 12:06:09 AM | ETH | buy | ETH holds a fresh 15m golden cross and the tape is only a hair soft, so the metronome continues: one more 8% tranche … | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 11:06:09 PM | ETH | buy | ETH shows a fresh 15m golden cross with a slightly stronger gap than BTC's cross, plus a mildly constructive treasury… | LLM Judge |
| 9/22/2026, 12:03:28 AM | BTC | buy | BTC holds $86.5k with both lots green and headlines skew constructive — treasury accumulation continues and the 50-we… | LLM Judge |
Risks
- Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
- Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
- Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
- Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
- Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
- The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.