← Instabuy Probe v1

Graduation report

Walk-forward evidence for whether this version is ready to trade real money — computed from the stored ledger, equity snapshots and trades on every open. Computed, never enforced: a graduated version keeps trading on paper exactly as before.

No portfolio is linked to this version yet — graduation evidence starts once a portfolio follows it and the daily fitness ledger begins recording days.

Risks

  • Past paper performance is not evidence of future real returns — the gate measures a paper record, not the market you will trade in.
  • Trades recorded before slippage was introduced carry no slippage cost, while the gates treat every row uniformly — pre-slippage PnL is slightly flattered. Slippage applies going forward only.
  • Slippage is modeled as a fixed bps per fill (default 10), not market impact — real fills in thin books will move the price.
  • Paper fills include fees and slippage but not partial fills or funding.
  • Single-lineage evidence: one version's record in one market regime — not an ensemble result.
  • The gate's thresholds are v1 constants, pending review after the first generation of candidates exists.
LLM off — the engine is running mechanically