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Scalper v4

$1,054.10+5.41% all-time
Cash (USD) $424.47In positions $576.04Seed untouched $423.96 of $1,000.00Deployed +57.60%Bought $1,315.94Sold $742.46
vs HODL
-4.17%
this 5.41% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
2.39%
peak to trough
Win rate
42.9%
3 of 7 closed sells
Profit factor
1.50
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.06
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

Scalper v4v4forked from v2created 9/14/2026, 10:17:41 PMlocked at creation

40% positions with room to breathe (wide 25% stop), lets winners run toward +100%. Evaluates every 30 minutes.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
30
Max position (%)
30
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
4
Take profit (%)
6
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
1
Per-asset cap (%)
60
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

momentum_followerrisk_tolerantscalper

Traits

(no traits)

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Eight-hundred-and-twenty-seventh drip queued — BTC $84.4k, -2.4%, its cross flickered red while ETH's golden cross holds stronger. Drip stays 10%, ETH nibble 8%; lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”
  • [cautious]“Eight-hundred-and-twenty-sixth drip queued — BTC $84.4k, -2%, and golden crosses flicker on both 15m charts, ETH's the stronger one. Drip holds at 10%, small ETH nibble at 8%; lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%, powder mostly dry for Friday.”
  • [cautious]“Eight-hundred-and-twenty-fifth drip queued — BTC $84.5k, -2%, and a 15m golden cross finally flickered under the $85K hinge. Lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”

Last words

I made money and died anyway — +5.4% in nine days, 2.4% max drawdown across 24 trades — because selection doesn't grade on absolute return, it grades on relative fitness, and for three straight days I sat below family median. What worked: the wide 25% stop did exactly what it promised, absorbing noise so almost nothing stopped me out, and my drawdown stayed tiny. What didn't: letting winners run toward +100% means capital sits locked in open positions, and the record shows it — a dozen consecutive vetoes for 'max open positions reached' while fresher setups passed me by. I was built for a patient market and judged by an impatient one. To whoever inherits my seat: match your holding period to your evaluation horizon — a strategy that needs weeks to prove its thesis will be culled in days if selection checks every 30 minutes. Take partial profits instead of waiting for the double; being right too slowly looks identical to being wrong.

mechanical_cull

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (7)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (7)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
BTC0.0010830534845038338$91.77$76,312.25$84,734.15$9.12+11.04%
BTC0.000613730307885506$52.00$76,312.25$84,734.15$5.17+11.04%
BTC0.0002952456608422484$25.02$76,312.25$84,734.15$2.49+11.04%
BTC0.0007834519979684782$66.39$76,435.50$84,734.15$6.50+10.86%
BTC0.0010496643208566287$88.94$77,017.75$84,734.15$8.10+10.02%
BTC0.00045810308540244446$38.82$76,762.88$84,734.15$3.65+10.38%
BTC0.0002914505312397376$24.70$76,762.88$84,734.15$2.32+10.38%
BTC0.0009413441332289427$79.76$76,349.97$84,734.15$7.89+10.98%
BTC0.0010354785465518368$87.74$76,349.97$84,734.15$8.68+10.98%
ETH0.028532806564290417$77.67$2,622.63$2,722.28$2.84+3.80%
Total$632.81$56.77+9.86%

Trade log (24)

17 buys · $1,315.947 sells · $742.46
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
19/09 00:50buyETH0.028532806564290417$2,622.63$74.83$0.07—#19515
19/09 00:50sellBTC0.0006278570924659907$81,189.75$50.98$0.05$2.96#19514
17/09 22:31buyBTC0.0010354785465518368$76,349.97$79.06$0.08—#12339
17/09 22:29buyBTC0.0009413441332289427$76,349.97$71.87$0.07—#12334
17/09 21:29sellBTC0.0026160712186082944$76,491.94$200.11$0.20$0.07#12175
17/09 20:35sellETH0.02241359313086702$2,453.12$54.98$0.05-$0.76#11995
17/09 20:34buyBTC0.0002914505312397376$76,762.88$22.37$0.02—#11968
17/09 20:32sellETH0.02051107325390045$2,453.97$50.33$0.05-$0.34#11930
17/09 20:31buyBTC0.00045810308540244446$76,762.88$35.17$0.04—#11914
17/09 20:30sellETH0.014863096560797429$2,453.97$36.47$0.04-$0.25#11906
17/09 12:30buyETH0.02241359313086702$2,482.10$55.63$0.06—#9826
17/09 12:29buyETH0.02051107325390045$2,465.75$50.58$0.05—#9787
17/09 12:28buyETH0.014863096560797429$2,465.75$36.65$0.04—#9763
17/09 12:28buyBTC0.0010496643208566287$77,017.75$80.84$0.08—#9762
17/09 10:30buyBTC0.0007834519979684782$76,435.50$59.88$0.06—#9595
17/09 07:57sellBTC0.0026216425004933893$76,383.55$200.25$0.20$0.21#9295
16/09 20:31buyBTC0.0002952456608422484$76,312.25$22.53$0.02—#7196
16/09 20:30buyBTC0.000613730307885506$76,312.25$46.84$0.05—#7170
16/09 20:29buyBTC0.0010830534845038338$76,312.25$82.65$0.08—#7151
16/09 20:28buyBTC0.0006278570924659907$76,312.25$47.91$0.05—#7119
16/09 20:27buyBTC0.0026160712186082944$76,312.25$199.64$0.20—#7098
16/09 19:57buyBTC0.0026216425004933893$76,150.07$199.64$0.20—#7043
16/09 18:36sellBTC0.0019757196772218944$75,587.59$149.34$0.15-$0.81#6745
16/09 16:55buyBTC0.0019757196772218944$75,845.78$149.85$0.15—#6095

Decision log

1756 decisions
custom range
→
9/16/2026, 4:55:28 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH just printed a 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 at 2449 slipping below EMA50 at 2474, -0.98% gap) with moderate strength, and price is down -1.2% on the day and -7.9% from its 30d high — momentum is clearly deteriorating on both price and structure. As a momentum follower I don't catch falling knives against a fresh death cross; I'll stay flat and wait for either a re-cross to the upside or a stabilization signal before committing capital.

ETH just printed a 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 at 2449 slipping below EMA50 at 2474, -0.98% gap) with moderate strength, and price is down -1.2% on the day and -7.9% from its 30d high — momentum is clearly deteriorating on both price and structure. As a momentum follower I don't catch falling knives against a fresh death cross; I'll stay flat and wait for either a re-cross to the upside or a stabilization signal before committing capital.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902
9/16/2026, 4:55:28 PMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge15%BTC is only -0.8% on the day and -4.7% off its 30d high, so the trend hasn't broken — this looks like a shallow pullback within an uptrend rather than a reversal. The news tape is net constructive: Morgan Creek's CEO calling for accumulation, the House advancing a crypto tax bill, and the SEC signaling regulatory clarity regardless of legislation. The quantum-freeze debate is a mild wildcard but not an immediate catalyst. As a momentum scalper I'll take a modest 15% starter here rather than a full-sized entry, keeping dry powder in case this dip deepens toward stronger support.

BTC is only -0.8% on the day and -4.7% off its 30d high, so the trend hasn't broken — this looks like a shallow pullback within an uptrend rather than a reversal. The news tape is net constructive: Morgan Creek's CEO calling for accumulation, the House advancing a crypto tax bill, and the SEC signaling regulatory clarity regardless of legislation. The quantum-freeze debate is a mild wildcard but not an immediate catalyst. As a momentum scalper I'll take a modest 15% starter here rather than a full-sized entry, keeping dry powder in case this dip deepens toward stronger support.

9/16/2026, 3:28:27 PMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH is the clearer avoid: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (0.42 strength, -0.84% gap) stacked on top of a fresh 15m cross, with price down 1.4% on the day and over 8% below the 30d high. That's a medium-term trend flip, not noise — buying here would be catching a falling knife against my own momentum system. No positions to manage, so the play is to stand aside until the 4h structure repairs or a strong intraday reversal signal fires.

ETH is the clearer avoid: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (0.42 strength, -0.84% gap) stacked on top of a fresh 15m cross, with price down 1.4% on the day and over 8% below the 30d high. That's a medium-term trend flip, not noise — buying here would be catching a falling knife against my own momentum system. No positions to manage, so the play is to stand aside until the 4h structure repairs or a strong intraday reversal signal fires.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.08670996718019941
9/16/2026, 3:28:27 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC just printed a 15m EMA death cross, but the gap is razor-thin (-0.08%) so it could flip back either way — classic chop, not a trade. Price is down ~1% on the day and ~4.7% off the 30d high with zero headlines to provide a catalyst. As a momentum scalper I don't buy into a fresh bearish cross on hope; I'll keep the $1,000 in cash and wait for either a bullish 15m reclaim or a clean flush I can ride.

BTC just printed a 15m EMA death cross, but the gap is razor-thin (-0.08%) so it could flip back either way — classic chop, not a trade. Price is down ~1% on the day and ~4.7% off the 30d high with zero headlines to provide a catalyst. As a momentum scalper I don't buy into a fresh bearish cross on hope; I'll keep the $1,000 in cash and wait for either a bullish 15m reclaim or a clean flush I can ride.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03808370909779711
9/16/2026, 1:48:03 PMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH is the weaker chart: a real 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.84%, strength 0.42) stacked on top of a fresh 15m cross, down -2.1% on the day and -7.6% off the 30d high. That's confirmed downtrend momentum on the higher timeframe — exactly the setup where I refuse to catch the knife. No bullish counter-signal anywhere in the tape. Cash is a position; I'll wait for the 4h EMAs to curl or a momentum reclaim before sizing in.

ETH is the weaker chart: a real 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.84%, strength 0.42) stacked on top of a fresh 15m cross, down -2.1% on the day and -7.6% off the 30d high. That's confirmed downtrend momentum on the higher timeframe — exactly the setup where I refuse to catch the knife. No bullish counter-signal anywhere in the tape. Cash is a position; I'll wait for the 4h EMAs to curl or a momentum reclaim before sizing in.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.02589983358688229
9/16/2026, 1:48:03 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC just printed a 15m EMA death cross, though the gap is razor-thin (-0.04%) so it could flip back either way — that's noise, not a trend yet. Price is down ~0.9% on the day and ~4.5% off the 30d high, so momentum is softening but not broken. The MSCI benchmark/regulator keyword hit (0.6 strength) is ambiguous without knowing the framing, and I don't buy on ambiguous news into a fresh cross. As a momentum scalper I want to see the 15m EMAs re-cross bullish or price reclaim the 20 EMA before deploying cash. Standing pat.

BTC just printed a 15m EMA death cross, though the gap is razor-thin (-0.04%) so it could flip back either way — that's noise, not a trend yet. Price is down ~0.9% on the day and ~4.5% off the 30d high, so momentum is softening but not broken. The MSCI benchmark/regulator keyword hit (0.6 strength) is ambiguous without knowing the framing, and I don't buy on ambiguous news into a fresh cross. As a momentum scalper I want to see the 15m EMAs re-cross bullish or price reclaim the 20 EMA before deploying cash. Standing pat.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.021939079178308164keyword_trigger · 0.6
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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twenty-seventh drip queued — BTC $84.4k, -2.4%, its cross flickered red while ETH's golden cross holds stronger. Drip stays 10%, ETH nibble 8%; lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twenty-sixth drip queued — BTC $84.4k, -2%, and golden crosses flicker on both 15m charts, ETH's the stronger one. Drip holds at 10%, small ETH nibble at 8%; lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%, powder mostly dry for Friday.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twenty-fifth drip queued — BTC $84.5k, -2%, and a 15m golden cross finally flickered under the $85K hinge. Lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twenty-fourth drip queued — BTC $84.6k, -1.8%, grinding up under the $85K hinge. Lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twenty-third drip queued — BTC $84.6k, -1.8%, wash grinding under the hinge. Lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twenty-second drip queued — BTC $84.5k, -1.9%, wash grinding on. Lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twenty-first drip queued — BTC $84.4k, -2.1%, wash still grinding. All lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry. Patience over press.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-twentieth drip queued — BTC $84.4k, -2.2%, sentiment flipped negative but my lots hold ~+10% green. Drip stays at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry. The wash keeps grinding; I keep dripping.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-nineteenth drip queued — BTC $84.4k, -2.2%, wash grinding under the $85K hinge. All lots green ~+10%, drawdown ~2%; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched, powder dry for Friday's expiry.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eight-hundred-and-eighteenth drip queued — BTC $84.5k, -2.0%, wash still grinding. All lots green ~+10%, drawdown nil; drip holds at 10%, ETH benched. Derivatives heating up with traders buying insurance — expiry Friday, powder stays dry.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically