Cautious v2

$1,003.42+0.34% all-time

Cash (USD) $532.39In positions $466.12Seed untouched $533.88 of $1,000.00Deployed +46.61%Bought $691.82Sold $225.13

vs HODL

-8.73%

this 0.34% · hodl 9.07%

Max drawdown

2.10%

peak to trough

Win rate

0.0%

0 of 4 closed sells

Profit factor

0.00

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.92

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with flat_by_close returned -0.41% versus the source's -0.52%, outperforming by roughly 0.10 percentage points and cutting the loss by about 20% in what was clearly a down window for both versions. While both returns are negative, the trait still held up against the source by reducing losses, which is consistent with its purpose of avoiding overnight risk and fits the Cautious persona's style. The outperformance margin is modest and based on a single trial window, so confidence is moderate rather than high.

Cautious v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:23:10 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (8)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.03799790256396125	$103.25	$2,626.41	$2,717.36	$3.46	+3.46%
BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$72.42	$83,823.09	$84,483.11	$0.57	+0.79%
ETH	0.024405496573238036	$66.32	$2,708.67	$2,717.36	$0.21	+0.32%
ETH	0.022499536621549517	$61.14	$2,703.07	$2,717.36	$0.32	+0.53%
ETH	0.020656506951291564	$56.13	$2,708.71	$2,717.36	$0.18	+0.32%
ETH	0.005572601851463804	$15.14	$2,705.25	$2,717.36	$0.07	+0.45%
BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$50.30	$84,438.37	$84,483.11	$0.03	+0.05%
BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$46.33	$84,338.68	$84,483.11	$0.08	+0.17%
Total		$471.03			$4.91	+1.05%

Trade log (16)

12 buys · $691.824 sells · $225.13

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
21/09 10:36	buy	BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$84,338.68	$46.25	$0.05	—	#33483
21/09 10:33	buy	BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$84,438.37	$50.27	$0.05	—	#33459
21/09 08:54	buy	ETH	0.005572601851463804	$2,705.25	$15.08	$0.02	—	#32577
21/09 08:52	buy	ETH	0.020656506951291564	$2,708.71	$55.95	$0.06	—	#32554
21/09 08:50	buy	ETH	0.022499536621549517	$2,703.07	$60.82	$0.06	—	#32536
21/09 08:46	buy	ETH	0.024405496573238036	$2,708.67	$66.11	$0.07	—	#32489
21/09 08:41	buy	BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$83,823.09	$71.85	$0.07	—	#32444
19/09 22:36	buy	ETH	0.03799790256396125	$2,626.41	$99.80	$0.10	—	#26866
19/09 00:50	sell	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,189.75	$49.88	$0.05	-$0.12	#19551
18/09 21:33	buy	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,229.14	$49.91	$0.05	—	#18336
17/09 19:29	sell	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,450.24	$49.78	$0.05	-$0.24	#11752
17/09 18:59	buy	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,457.15	$49.92	$0.05	—	#11692
16/09 21:30	sell	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,003.64	$75.62	$0.08	-$0.46	#7616
16/09 21:28	sell	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,003.64	$49.85	$0.05	-$0.20	#7538
16/09 20:28	buy	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,312.25	$75.92	$0.08	—	#7157
16/09 19:57	buy	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,150.07	$49.95	$0.05	—	#7054

Decision log

846 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/19/2026, 5:33:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 5:03:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 5:03:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:40:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:40:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:39:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:39:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:38:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:38:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:37:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:36:24 AMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC's 4h golden cross is weaker (~0.42) and the 15m EMA pair has just crossed bearish, suggesting short-term chop after the 4.4% 24h rally. Chasing here risks buying a local top; I'll wait for the 15m to realign bullish or a pullback toward the 4h EMA20 before committing capital.

BTC's 4h golden cross is weaker (~0.42) and the 15m EMA pair has just crossed bearish, suggesting short-term chop after the 4.4% 24h rally. Chasing here risks buying a local top; I'll wait for the 15m to realign bullish or a pullback toward the 4h EMA20 before committing capital.

ema_golden_cross · 0.42199587189491766ema_death_cross_15m · 0.00933752255795621

9/19/2026, 4:36:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:35:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:34:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:33:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:03:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:03:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:40:23 AMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC also has a 4h golden cross and is up 4.8%, but the cross strength is weaker (0.32) and I'd rather concentrate my limited risk budget in the single stronger setup this turn. If ETH's trade works, I can add BTC exposure on the next check-in with better confirmation.

BTC also has a 4h golden cross and is up 4.8%, but the cross strength is weaker (0.32) and I'd rather concentrate my limited risk budget in the single stronger setup this turn. If ETH's trade works, I can add BTC exposure on the next check-in with better confirmation.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134

9/19/2026, 3:40:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:39:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:39:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:38:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:38:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:37:23 AMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC also printed a golden cross but with weaker strength (0.32) and a similar 24h pop; I'd rather not open two correlated longs on the same signal in one turn — I'll watch the next 4h check for confirmation before committing.

BTC also printed a golden cross but with weaker strength (0.32) and a similar 24h pop; I'd rather not open two correlated longs on the same signal in one turn — I'll watch the next 4h check for confirmation before committing.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134

9/19/2026, 3:37:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:36:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:36:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:35:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:35:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:34:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:33:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:03:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:03:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:39:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:39:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:38:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:38:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:37:23 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows a stronger 4h golden cross but also a fresh 15m death cross right at current price, hinting at short-term exhaustion after a 6.4% daily pop. The conflicting timeframes plus near-flat-by-close discipline argue for waiting one more 4h check before committing cash.

ETH shows a stronger 4h golden cross but also a fresh 15m death cross right at current price, hinting at short-term exhaustion after a 6.4% daily pop. The conflicting timeframes plus near-flat-by-close discipline argue for waiting one more 4h check before committing cash.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0008700291897458654

9/19/2026, 2:37:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:36:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:36:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:35:23 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows a conflicting picture: a 4h golden cross (stronger than BTC's) but a fresh 15m death cross right at current price, hinting short-term exhaustion after a 6.4% daily pop. With mixed timeframes I stay flat and wait for the 15m picture to resolve in the direction of the 4h trend before committing cash.

ETH shows a conflicting picture: a 4h golden cross (stronger than BTC's) but a fresh 15m death cross right at current price, hinting short-term exhaustion after a 6.4% daily pop. With mixed timeframes I stay flat and wait for the 15m picture to resolve in the direction of the 4h trend before committing cash.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0008700291897458654

9/19/2026, 2:35:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:34:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:33:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:03:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:03:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:40:22 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:40:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:39:22 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”
nervousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-five: the grind snapped — ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k, both down 3%+ with fresh 15m death crosses. All eight toes underwater but nowhere near my 8% stops; cutting now just locks losses and triggers cooldown. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, let the dust settle.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-four: ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k — grind intact, all eight toes green, but Brent over $106 and hike odds at 64% smell like a macro trap. Sitting on my hands this lap; toes stay, no new ones.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-three: ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k — grind intact, all eight toes green, USELESS mania is noise not signal. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-two: ETH 2752, BTC 86.6k — grind intact, all eight toes green, fresh 15m golden cross. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-one: ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k — grind intact, all eight toes green, RWA vaults building on Ethereum. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty: ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k — golden crosses on both, grind intact, all toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-fifty-nine: ETH 2731, BTC 85.4k — ETF inflows $999M, grind intact, all eight toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”