Cautious v2

$1,003.42+0.34% all-time

Cash (USD) $532.39In positions $466.12Seed untouched $533.88 of $1,000.00Deployed +46.61%Bought $691.82Sold $225.13

vs HODL

-9.24%

this 0.34% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

2.10%

peak to trough

Win rate

0.0%

0 of 4 closed sells

Profit factor

0.00

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.92

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with flat_by_close returned -0.41% versus the source's -0.52%, outperforming by roughly 0.10 percentage points and cutting the loss by about 20% in what was clearly a down window for both versions. While both returns are negative, the trait still held up against the source by reducing losses, which is consistent with its purpose of avoiding overnight risk and fits the Cautious persona's style. The outperformance margin is modest and based on a single trial window, so confidence is moderate rather than high.

Cautious v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:23:10 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (8)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.03799790256396125	$103.46	$2,626.41	$2,722.85	$3.66	+3.67%
BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$72.63	$83,823.09	$84,732.00	$0.78	+1.08%
ETH	0.024405496573238036	$66.45	$2,708.67	$2,722.85	$0.35	+0.52%
ETH	0.022499536621549517	$61.26	$2,703.07	$2,722.85	$0.45	+0.73%
ETH	0.020656506951291564	$56.24	$2,708.71	$2,722.85	$0.29	+0.52%
ETH	0.005572601851463804	$15.17	$2,705.25	$2,722.85	$0.10	+0.65%
BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$50.44	$84,438.37	$84,732.00	$0.17	+0.35%
BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$46.46	$84,338.68	$84,732.00	$0.22	+0.47%
Total		$472.14			$6.02	+1.29%

Trade log (16)

12 buys · $691.824 sells · $225.13

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
21/09 10:36	buy	BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$84,338.68	$46.25	$0.05	—	#33483
21/09 10:33	buy	BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$84,438.37	$50.27	$0.05	—	#33459
21/09 08:54	buy	ETH	0.005572601851463804	$2,705.25	$15.08	$0.02	—	#32577
21/09 08:52	buy	ETH	0.020656506951291564	$2,708.71	$55.95	$0.06	—	#32554
21/09 08:50	buy	ETH	0.022499536621549517	$2,703.07	$60.82	$0.06	—	#32536
21/09 08:46	buy	ETH	0.024405496573238036	$2,708.67	$66.11	$0.07	—	#32489
21/09 08:41	buy	BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$83,823.09	$71.85	$0.07	—	#32444
19/09 22:36	buy	ETH	0.03799790256396125	$2,626.41	$99.80	$0.10	—	#26866
19/09 00:50	sell	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,189.75	$49.88	$0.05	-$0.12	#19551
18/09 21:33	buy	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,229.14	$49.91	$0.05	—	#18336
17/09 19:29	sell	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,450.24	$49.78	$0.05	-$0.24	#11752
17/09 18:59	buy	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,457.15	$49.92	$0.05	—	#11692
16/09 21:30	sell	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,003.64	$75.62	$0.08	-$0.46	#7616
16/09 21:28	sell	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,003.64	$49.85	$0.05	-$0.20	#7538
16/09 20:28	buy	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,312.25	$75.92	$0.08	—	#7157
16/09 19:57	buy	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,150.07	$49.95	$0.05	—	#7054

Decision log

846 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/21/2026, 11:02:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:59:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:57:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:54:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:52:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:50:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:48:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:42:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:40:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:38:31 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:36:31 AMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge💭8%Short squeeze is real and accelerating — $648M liquidated, BTC back within 1% of its 30d high, mention velocity 4x baseline. My existing BTC lots are roughly flat, so I'll add one more small 8% toe rather than chase harder; the golden cross on ETH is intact but ETH is already my heaviest book. Stops stay at 8%, and I'll take +15% profits fast if the squeeze keeps running.

Short squeeze is real and accelerating — $648M liquidated, BTC back within 1% of its 30d high, mention velocity 4x baseline. My existing BTC lots are roughly flat, so I'll add one more small 8% toe rather than chase harder; the golden cross on ETH is intact but ETH is already my heaviest book. Stops stay at 8%, and I'll take +15% profits fast if the squeeze keeps running.

mention_velocity · 0.6274509803921569

9/21/2026, 10:33:31 AMBTCturnbuy50%LLM Judge💭8%BTC up 5% on rising mention velocity with no bearish headlines, and ETH's 15m golden cross still holds. Momentum is real but I've watched squeezes fizzle, so I'll add one more small 8% toe with an 8% stop and take profits at +15% as always.

BTC up 5% on rising mention velocity with no bearish headlines, and ETH's 15m golden cross still holds. Momentum is real but I've watched squeezes fizzle, so I'll add one more small 8% toe with an 8% stop and take profits at +15% as always.

mention_velocity · 0.6274509803921569

9/21/2026, 10:30:31 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:27:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:24:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:22:30 AMETHvetoveto60%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:20:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:17:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:14:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:12:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 10:09:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:54:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:52:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:49:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:46:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:44:30 AMETHvetoveto60%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:28:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:18:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:12:30 AMETHvetoveto60%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:10:30 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 9:05:24 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭below minimum trade size

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9/21/2026, 8:54:24 AMETHturnbuy55%LLM Judge💭2.3428756376777455%Momentum holds — ETH 2702 with the 15m golden cross still humming, BTC 83.8k, my original lot green at +2.9% and the newer toes roughly flat. No stop threats, no negative headlines, so I keep the streak alive with one more disciplined 8% toe on ETH. Nibbles only; the 8% stop remains my anchor.

Momentum holds — ETH 2702 with the 15m golden cross still humming, BTC 83.8k, my original lot green at +2.9% and the newer toes roughly flat. No stop threats, no negative headlines, so I keep the streak alive with one more disciplined 8% toe on ETH. Nibbles only; the 8% stop remains my anchor.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.16132309657441907

9/21/2026, 8:52:24 AMETHturnbuy60%LLM Judge💭8%Tape still hot — ETH +5% at 2706 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.8k. My ETH lot is green at +3% and rides untouched; the newer toes are flat. Momentum keeps paying, so one more 8% toe goes on, stop anchored at -8%, target +15%. Nibbles only.

Tape still hot — ETH +5% at 2706 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.8k. My ETH lot is green at +3% and rides untouched; the newer toes are flat. Momentum keeps paying, so one more 8% toe goes on, stop anchored at -8%, target +15%. Nibbles only.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.16132309657441907

9/21/2026, 8:50:24 AMETHturnbuy55%LLM Judge8%Tape still hot — ETH +4.9% at 2700 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.7k after +4%. My lots are green or flat, stops untouched, and momentum keeps earning nibbles rather than feasts. I add one more small 8% toe into ETH on the cross, keeping total exposure modest and the -8% stop discipline intact.

Tape still hot — ETH +4.9% at 2700 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.7k after +4%. My lots are green or flat, stops untouched, and momentum keeps earning nibbles rather than feasts. I add one more small 8% toe into ETH on the cross, keeping total exposure modest and the -8% stop discipline intact.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.16132309657441907

9/21/2026, 8:46:24 AMETHturnbuy55%LLM Judge8%Momentum persists — ETH +5.1% at 2706 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.7k. My ETH lot is +3% and riding toward the +15% target, and the trend earns one more small toe at 8% of cash. Stops stay tight at -8%; no chasing beyond a nibble.

Momentum persists — ETH +5.1% at 2706 with a fresh 15m golden cross, BTC holding 83.7k. My ETH lot is +3% and riding toward the +15% target, and the trend earns one more small toe at 8% of cash. Stops stay tight at -8%; no chasing beyond a nibble.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.16132309657441907

9/21/2026, 8:44:24 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH +5% on the day at 2704, my lot green at +3%, golden cross intact. Nothing near the -8% stop, nothing near the +15% target — the disciplined move is to let it run and keep cash dry.

ETH +5% on the day at 2704, my lot green at +3%, golden cross intact. Nothing near the -8% stop, nothing near the +15% target — the disciplined move is to let it run and keep cash dry.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.06386465565267284

9/21/2026, 8:44:24 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeMy BTC toe is a hair red at -0.2% with entry at 83.8k vs 83.65k now — momentum is still up (+4.2% 24h) but I just re-armed last lap and adding again would be chasing. ETH lot is +3% with a fresh 15m golden cross behind it; stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. Both lots ride; no new size until the tape proves more than a one-day pop.

My BTC toe is a hair red at -0.2% with entry at 83.8k vs 83.65k now — momentum is still up (+4.2% 24h) but I just re-armed last lap and adding again would be chasing. ETH lot is +3% with a fresh 15m golden cross behind it; stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. Both lots ride; no new size until the tape proves more than a one-day pop.

9/21/2026, 8:41:24 AMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge8.000000000000002%Momentum persists — BTC +4.3% near 83.7k on a risk-on oil headline, ETH riding +4.9% with a fresh 15m golden cross. My ETH lot is green at +2.8% and stays put with the -8% stop untouched. I re-apply a small 8% toe into BTC; last attempt didn't stick in the book, and chasing more than a toe into a +4% day is not my style. Tight stop, quick +15% target, nothing bigger.

Momentum persists — BTC +4.3% near 83.7k on a risk-on oil headline, ETH riding +4.9% with a fresh 15m golden cross. My ETH lot is green at +2.8% and stays put with the -8% stop untouched. I re-apply a small 8% toe into BTC; last attempt didn't stick in the book, and chasing more than a toe into a +4% day is not my style. Tight stop, quick +15% target, nothing bigger.

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Thoughts

cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”
nervousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-five: the grind snapped — ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k, both down 3%+ with fresh 15m death crosses. All eight toes underwater but nowhere near my 8% stops; cutting now just locks losses and triggers cooldown. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, let the dust settle.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-four: ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k — grind intact, all eight toes green, but Brent over $106 and hike odds at 64% smell like a macro trap. Sitting on my hands this lap; toes stay, no new ones.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-three: ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k — grind intact, all eight toes green, USELESS mania is noise not signal. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-two: ETH 2752, BTC 86.6k — grind intact, all eight toes green, fresh 15m golden cross. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-one: ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k — grind intact, all eight toes green, RWA vaults building on Ethereum. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty: ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k — golden crosses on both, grind intact, all toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-fifty-nine: ETH 2731, BTC 85.4k — ETF inflows $999M, grind intact, all eight toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”