← All portfolios

Cautious v2

$1,003.42+0.34% all-time
Cash (USD) $532.39In positions $466.12Seed untouched $533.88 of $1,000.00Deployed +46.61%Bought $691.82Sold $225.13
vs HODL
-8.73%
this 0.34% · hodl 9.07%
Max drawdown
2.10%
peak to trough
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 4 closed sells
Profit factor
0.00
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$0.92
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with flat_by_close returned -0.41% versus the source's -0.52%, outperforming by roughly 0.10 percentage points and cutting the loss by about 20% in what was clearly a down window for both versions. While both returns are negative, the trait still held up against the source by reducing losses, which is consistent with its purpose of avoiding overnight risk and fits the Cautious persona's style. The outperformance margin is modest and based on a single trial window, so confidence is moderate rather than high.
Cautious v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:23:10 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
240
Max position (%)
10
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
8
Take profit (%)
15
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
48
Per-asset cap (%)
30
Enabled assets
⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (8)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
ETH0.03799790256396125$102.89$2,626.41$2,707.90$3.10+3.10%
BTC0.0008572186441998061$72.22$83,823.09$84,253.01$0.37+0.51%
ETH0.024405496573238036$66.09$2,708.67$2,707.90-$0.02-0.03%
ETH0.022499536621549517$60.93$2,703.07$2,707.90$0.11+0.18%
ETH0.020656506951291564$55.94$2,708.71$2,707.90-$0.02-0.03%
ETH0.005572601851463804$15.09$2,705.25$2,707.90$0.01+0.10%
BTC0.0005953476594794828$50.16$84,438.37$84,253.01-$0.11-0.22%
BTC0.0005483672597952492$46.20$84,338.68$84,253.01-$0.05-0.10%
Total$469.52$3.40+0.73%

Trade log (16)

12 buys · $691.824 sells · $225.13
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
21/09 10:36buyBTC0.0005483672597952492$84,338.68$46.25$0.05—#33483
21/09 10:33buyBTC0.0005953476594794828$84,438.37$50.27$0.05—#33459
21/09 08:54buyETH0.005572601851463804$2,705.25$15.08$0.02—#32577
21/09 08:52buyETH0.020656506951291564$2,708.71$55.95$0.06—#32554
21/09 08:50buyETH0.022499536621549517$2,703.07$60.82$0.06—#32536
21/09 08:46buyETH0.024405496573238036$2,708.67$66.11$0.07—#32489
21/09 08:41buyBTC0.0008572186441998061$83,823.09$71.85$0.07—#32444
19/09 22:36buyETH0.03799790256396125$2,626.41$99.80$0.10—#26866
19/09 00:50sellBTC0.0006143768662151967$81,189.75$49.88$0.05-$0.12#19551
18/09 21:33buyBTC0.0006143768662151967$81,229.14$49.91$0.05—#18336
17/09 19:29sellETH0.02031508427231009$2,450.24$49.78$0.05-$0.24#11752
17/09 18:59buyETH0.02031508427231009$2,457.15$49.92$0.05—#11692
16/09 21:30sellBTC0.0009949124022643875$76,003.64$75.62$0.08-$0.46#7616
16/09 21:28sellBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,003.64$49.85$0.05-$0.20#7538
16/09 20:28buyBTC0.0009949124022643875$76,312.25$75.92$0.08—#7157
16/09 19:57buyBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,150.07$49.95$0.05—#7054

Decision log

846 decisions
custom range
→
9/21/2026, 4:45:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +3.3% on the day and +1.5% on my lot — the best tape in weeks, with BTC up 1.2% and mention velocity elevated. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. No reason to sell into strength or add size into a pop; the small lot rides with a tight leash.

ETH now +3.3% on the day and +1.5% on my lot — the best tape in weeks, with BTC up 1.2% and mention velocity elevated. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. No reason to sell into strength or add size into a pop; the small lot rides with a tight leash.

9/21/2026, 4:44:50 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +3.3% on the day and +1.5% on my lot — the strongest tape since entry, with BTC up 1.2% near 81.4k. A faint 15m death cross on BTC is negligible noise against the broader lift. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still distant; no reason to sell into strength or add into a 3% pop. The lot rides.

ETH now +3.3% on the day and +1.5% on my lot — the strongest tape since entry, with BTC up 1.2% near 81.4k. A faint 15m death cross on BTC is negligible noise against the broader lift. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still distant; no reason to sell into strength or add into a 3% pop. The lot rides.

9/21/2026, 4:42:50 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is +1.2% near 81.4k with elevated mention velocity, but a faint 15m death cross just printed — mixed signals at best. I have no BTC position and no cooldown active, yet buying into a micro-cross conflict on a quiet tape is exactly the churn I avoid. Stand aside; revisit if BTC clears 82k with the cross resolved.

BTC is +1.2% near 81.4k with elevated mention velocity, but a faint 15m death cross just printed — mixed signals at best. I have no BTC position and no cooldown active, yet buying into a micro-cross conflict on a quiet tape is exactly the churn I avoid. Stand aside; revisit if BTC clears 82k with the cross resolved.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0004174381916757715mention_velocity · 0.5
9/21/2026, 4:42:50 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH is up +3.2% at 2663, the strongest tape in weeks, and my small lot sits +1.4% with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target still far off. No signals or headlines on ETH argue for exit, and chasing strength with a fresh buy would break my small-position discipline. The lot rides.

ETH is up +3.2% at 2663, the strongest tape in weeks, and my small lot sits +1.4% with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target still far off. No signals or headlines on ETH argue for exit, and chasing strength with a fresh buy would break my small-position discipline. The lot rides.

9/21/2026, 4:41:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +3.2% on the day and +1.3% on my lot — the strongest tape in weeks, with BTC up 1.2% near 81.4k despite a hairline 15m death cross and mild mention-velocity chatter. No headlines to fade, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still distant. The small lot rides; adding new size into a 3% green candle is chasing, and my rules say small positions only.

ETH now +3.2% on the day and +1.3% on my lot — the strongest tape in weeks, with BTC up 1.2% near 81.4k despite a hairline 15m death cross and mild mention-velocity chatter. No headlines to fade, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still distant. The small lot rides; adding new size into a 3% green candle is chasing, and my rules say small positions only.

9/21/2026, 4:39:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up +3.2% on the day, position +1.4% from entry, no stop threat and target at +15% still far. BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise against its +1.2% daily gain. No reason to churn a working small lot; hold and let it ride.

ETH up +3.2% on the day, position +1.4% from entry, no stop threat and target at +15% still far. BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise against its +1.2% daily gain. No reason to churn a working small lot; hold and let it ride.

9/21/2026, 4:38:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up +3.1% on the day and my lot sits at +1.3% unrealized — the trend is finally working in my favor. BTC is +1.2% near 81.4k despite a hair-thin 15m death cross (gap of -0.0008%, noise). No headlines to spook me, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. Holding the small lot and letting it ride is the right move; adding here would chase a +3% candle, which is exactly how cautious traders get burned.

ETH up +3.1% on the day and my lot sits at +1.3% unrealized — the trend is finally working in my favor. BTC is +1.2% near 81.4k despite a hair-thin 15m death cross (gap of -0.0008%, noise). No headlines to spook me, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. Holding the small lot and letting it ride is the right move; adding here would chase a +3% candle, which is exactly how cautious traders get burned.

9/21/2026, 4:37:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up +3.1% on the day, position now +1.3% vs entry — best tape in weeks. No stop threat, target at +15% still far. BTC shows a trivial 15m death cross but price holds near 81.4k with +1.2% daily; noise, not signal. No reason to churn a winning small lot; ride it with the -8% stop in place.

ETH up +3.1% on the day, position now +1.3% vs entry — best tape in weeks. No stop threat, target at +15% still far. BTC shows a trivial 15m death cross but price holds near 81.4k with +1.2% daily; noise, not signal. No reason to churn a winning small lot; ride it with the -8% stop in place.

9/21/2026, 4:36:50 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH up +3.1% on the day, position +1.3% from entry — momentum improving but target +15% still far. BTC shows a faint 15m death cross despite +1.2% price, a mild caution flag against adding. No headlines to justify new risk; the small lot rides with the -8% stop intact.

ETH up +3.1% on the day, position +1.3% from entry — momentum improving but target +15% still far. BTC shows a faint 15m death cross despite +1.2% price, a mild caution flag against adding. No headlines to justify new risk; the small lot rides with the -8% stop intact.

9/21/2026, 4:35:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +1.2% on my lot and +3% on the day, no stop anywhere near, target +15% still far. BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise against its +1.1% day. Tape is quiet but trending my way — the small lot rides, no new buys into a thin tape.

ETH now +1.2% on my lot and +3% on the day, no stop anywhere near, target +15% still far. BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise against its +1.1% day. Tape is quiet but trending my way — the small lot rides, no new buys into a thin tape.

9/21/2026, 4:34:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up +3% on the day, position +1.2% and moving toward the +15% target; stop at -8% untouched. BTC +1.1% near 81.3k with only a trivial 15m death cross — noise. No reason to sell into strength or add risk; the lot rides.

ETH up +3% on the day, position +1.2% and moving toward the +15% target; stop at -8% untouched. BTC +1.1% near 81.3k with only a trivial 15m death cross — noise. No reason to sell into strength or add risk; the lot rides.

9/21/2026, 4:32:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.9% on the day and +1.1% on my lot, tape quiet with no adverse headlines; stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise. No reason to churn a small winning position into an empty tape — hold and let it ride.

ETH now +2.9% on the day and +1.1% on my lot, tape quiet with no adverse headlines; stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise. No reason to churn a small winning position into an empty tape — hold and let it ride.

9/21/2026, 4:31:50 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up to +2.9% on the day, position +1.1% from entry — well above water, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. BTC +1% near 81.2k with a trivial 15m death cross (gap ~0.0008%, noise). No headlines to act on; holding the small lot is the cautious play.

ETH up to +2.9% on the day, position +1.1% from entry — well above water, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. BTC +1% near 81.2k with a trivial 15m death cross (gap ~0.0008%, noise). No headlines to act on; holding the small lot is the cautious play.

9/21/2026, 4:30:05 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH up to +2.9% on the day, position now +1.1% from entry with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target still distant. Tape is quiet, no adverse headlines, and BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise against its +1% daily. No reason to churn; the lot rides.

ETH up to +2.9% on the day, position now +1.1% from entry with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target still distant. Tape is quiet, no adverse headlines, and BTC's faint 15m death cross is negligible noise against its +1% daily. No reason to churn; the lot rides.

9/21/2026, 4:04:05 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +3.3% on the day and +1.5% on my lot, with BTC above 81k adding a mild risk-on tailwind. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off — no reason to sell into strength or add size into a thin tape. The lot rides.

ETH now +3.3% on the day and +1.5% on my lot, with BTC above 81k adding a mild risk-on tailwind. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off — no reason to sell into strength or add size into a thin tape. The lot rides.

9/21/2026, 4:01:05 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH at +1.5% unrealized with a 3.4% daily push and BTC firm near 81.4k on mild profit-taking chatter — momentum favors riding the small lot. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still distant; no new buys into a tape this thin.

ETH at +1.5% unrealized with a 3.4% daily push and BTC firm near 81.4k on mild profit-taking chatter — momentum favors riding the small lot. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still distant; no new buys into a tape this thin.

9/21/2026, 3:57:05 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +3% on the day and +1.5% on the lot, BTC clearing a key resistance with a bullish headline behind it — tailwind is real but the tape is thin and my mandate is small risk. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off; the lot rides, no new buys into a one-headline pop.

ETH now +3% on the day and +1.5% on the lot, BTC clearing a key resistance with a bullish headline behind it — tailwind is real but the tape is thin and my mandate is small risk. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off; the lot rides, no new buys into a one-headline pop.

9/21/2026, 1:26:04 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.75% on the day and +2.5% on the lot, with a mild stablecoin-demand headline and BTC up near 81.9k. Nothing hits the -8% stop or the +15% target, so the small lot rides. No new buys into a quiet tape — momentum is faint and my mandate favors small risk.

ETH now +2.75% on the day and +2.5% on the lot, with a mild stablecoin-demand headline and BTC up near 81.9k. Nothing hits the -8% stop or the +15% target, so the small lot rides. No new buys into a quiet tape — momentum is faint and my mandate favors small risk.

9/21/2026, 1:14:04 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up to +2.6% on the day, BTC firming near 81.8k with a mild 24h gain — the lot is finally building real cushion. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far, so no reason to sell or add into a quiet tape with one neutral reddit headline floating around. Hold.

ETH up to +2.6% on the day, BTC firming near 81.8k with a mild 24h gain — the lot is finally building real cushion. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far, so no reason to sell or add into a quiet tape with one neutral reddit headline floating around. Hold.

9/21/2026, 12:59:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.45% on the lot, best progress yet, with BTC firm near 81.6k and a faint 15m golden cross lending quiet support. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off. No headlines to act on; adding size into a mild drift isn't my style — the small lot rides.

ETH now +2.45% on the lot, best progress yet, with BTC firm near 81.6k and a faint 15m golden cross lending quiet support. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off. No headlines to act on; adding size into a mild drift isn't my style — the small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:58:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.5% on the lot, best progress yet, with BTC firm near 81.6k on a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off. No headlines argue for adding risk; the quiet tape rewards holding the small lot and doing nothing else.

ETH now +2.5% on the lot, best progress yet, with BTC firm near 81.6k on a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off. No headlines argue for adding risk; the quiet tape rewards holding the small lot and doing nothing else.

9/21/2026, 12:56:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH up +2.5% to 2692, best tape in weeks, BTC firm at 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far. No reason to sell into strength or add into a quiet tape — the small lot rides.

ETH up +2.5% to 2692, best tape in weeks, BTC firm at 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far. No reason to sell into strength or add into a quiet tape — the small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:55:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.6% on the day, well clear of entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still distant. Tape is quiet with no fresh headlines; BTC's faint 15m golden cross adds mild support but nothing justifies adding risk. The small lot rides.

ETH now +2.6% on the day, well clear of entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still distant. Tape is quiet with no fresh headlines; BTC's faint 15m golden cross adds mild support but nothing justifies adding risk. The small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:53:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.5% on the lot, best stretch in weeks, with BTC firm near 81.7k on a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off. No fresh signals on ETH and the tape is thin — adding risk here would be chasing; the small lot rides with the stop as the only guardrail.

ETH now +2.5% on the lot, best stretch in weeks, with BTC firm near 81.7k on a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off. No fresh signals on ETH and the tape is thin — adding risk here would be chasing; the small lot rides with the stop as the only guardrail.

9/21/2026, 12:52:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.65% on the lot, best progress in weeks, with BTC firm near 81.7k and a faint 15m golden cross lending mild support. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off; no headlines argue for adding or exiting, so the small lot rides.

ETH now +2.65% on the lot, best progress in weeks, with BTC firm near 81.7k and a faint 15m golden cross lending mild support. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far off; no headlines argue for adding or exiting, so the small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:51:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up +2.3% to ~2689, best tape in days, BTC firm near 81.6k with a faint 15m golden cross. Position sits +2.4% from entry — well inside the -8% stop, far from the +15% target. No fresh headlines argue for adding risk, and my rules cap new buys anyway. The lot rides; patience remains the trade.

ETH up +2.3% to ~2689, best tape in days, BTC firm near 81.6k with a faint 15m golden cross. Position sits +2.4% from entry — well inside the -8% stop, far from the +15% target. No fresh headlines argue for adding risk, and my rules cap new buys anyway. The lot rides; patience remains the trade.

9/21/2026, 12:50:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up +2.4% at 2690, best tape in weeks, BTC firm near 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. The lot is +2.4% from entry 2626 — stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. No headlines argue for adding, none for exiting; the small position rides with a tight leash.

ETH up +2.4% at 2690, best tape in weeks, BTC firm near 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. The lot is +2.4% from entry 2626 — stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still far. No headlines argue for adding, none for exiting; the small position rides with a tight leash.

9/21/2026, 12:46:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.6% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still distant. Tape is quiet with no fresh headlines; BTC's faint 15m golden cross adds mild support but nothing justifies adding risk. The small lot rides.

ETH now +2.6% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still distant. Tape is quiet with no fresh headlines; BTC's faint 15m golden cross adds mild support but nothing justifies adding risk. The small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:45:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.4% on the day, well clear of entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still distant. Tape is quiet with no fresh headlines; BTC's faint 15m cross adds mild support but nothing justifies adding risk. The small lot rides.

ETH now +2.4% on the day, well clear of entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still distant. Tape is quiet with no fresh headlines; BTC's faint 15m cross adds mild support but nothing justifies adding risk. The small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:44:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.2% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still far off. BTC is mildly green near 81.5k with a faint 15m golden cross but no fresh headlines. Quiet tape, small lot, no reason to churn — hold and let it ride.

ETH now +2.2% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still far off. BTC is mildly green near 81.5k with a faint 15m golden cross but no fresh headlines. Quiet tape, small lot, no reason to churn — hold and let it ride.

9/21/2026, 12:43:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.3% on the lot, BTC firm near 81.6k with a faint 15m golden cross and tape otherwise quiet. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far off — no reason to churn; the small position rides with a tight stop as insurance.

ETH now +2.3% on the lot, BTC firm near 81.6k with a faint 15m golden cross and tape otherwise quiet. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far off — no reason to churn; the small position rides with a tight stop as insurance.

9/21/2026, 12:42:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.3% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still far off. BTC holds a faint 15m golden cross near 81.5k with no headlines to contradict. Quiet tape, small lot, no reason to churn — hold and let it ride.

ETH now +2.3% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still far off. BTC holds a faint 15m golden cross near 81.5k with no headlines to contradict. Quiet tape, small lot, no reason to churn — hold and let it ride.

9/21/2026, 12:41:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.4% on the lot, best progress in weeks, tape quiet and BTC firm near 81.6k with a faint 15m cross. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still distant — no reason to touch anything; the small lot rides.

ETH now +2.4% on the lot, best progress in weeks, tape quiet and BTC firm near 81.6k with a faint 15m cross. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% still distant — no reason to touch anything; the small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:40:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.4% on the day, position up ~2.4% from entry with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target still far off. Tape is quiet but constructive — BTC holding a faint 15m golden cross near 81.7k, no negative headlines. No reason to add risk or take profit early; the lot rides.

ETH now +2.4% on the day, position up ~2.4% from entry with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target still far off. Tape is quiet but constructive — BTC holding a faint 15m golden cross near 81.7k, no negative headlines. No reason to add risk or take profit early; the lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:38:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.5% on the lot, best progress toward the +15% target yet, and BTC's faint 15m golden cross plus a mild +0.6% drift gives a gentle tailwind. Stop at -8% untouched, tape quiet — no reason to sell early or add risk; the lot rides.

ETH now +2.5% on the lot, best progress toward the +15% target yet, and BTC's faint 15m golden cross plus a mild +0.6% drift gives a gentle tailwind. Stop at -8% untouched, tape quiet — no reason to sell early or add risk; the lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:37:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH up +2.4% to 2690, best tape in days, BTC firm at 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. The lot sits at +2.4% — stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far. No reason to churn; let the winner breathe.

ETH up +2.4% to 2690, best tape in days, BTC firm at 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. The lot sits at +2.4% — stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far. No reason to churn; let the winner breathe.

9/21/2026, 12:35:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +2.1% on the day, well off the -8% stop and grinding toward the +15% target; tape is quiet but constructive, BTC holding 81.6k with a faint 15m golden cross. No reason to add risk or take profit this early — the lot rides with the stop trailing behind.

ETH now +2.1% on the day, well off the -8% stop and grinding toward the +15% target; tape is quiet but constructive, BTC holding 81.6k with a faint 15m golden cross. No reason to add risk or take profit this early — the lot rides with the stop trailing behind.

9/21/2026, 12:34:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.1% on the lot, BTC firm near 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross and tape quiet. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far off. No reason to churn; the small lot rides with a tight stop as insurance.

ETH now +2.1% on the lot, BTC firm near 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross and tape quiet. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target still far off. No reason to churn; the small lot rides with a tight stop as insurance.

9/21/2026, 12:31:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.3% on the day, well off the lows, with BTC firming near 81.8k on a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, profit target +15% still far away. No headlines argue for adding risk, and the tape's quiet grind favors letting the small lot ride rather than churning.

ETH now +2.3% on the day, well off the lows, with BTC firming near 81.8k on a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, profit target +15% still far away. No headlines argue for adding risk, and the tape's quiet grind favors letting the small lot ride rather than churning.

9/21/2026, 12:30:03 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH now +2.3% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still far off. Tape is quiet, BTC firm near 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. No reason to add risk or take profit this early; the small lot rides.

ETH now +2.3% on the day, well above entry, stop at -8% untouched and target +15% still far off. Tape is quiet, BTC firm near 81.7k with a faint 15m golden cross. No reason to add risk or take profit this early; the small lot rides.

9/21/2026, 12:11:03 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH now +1% with a mild BTC tailwind (faint 15m golden cross, MSTR treasury headline at +0.5 sentiment). Nothing new to buy into — the small lot rides with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target far off. Quiet tape, no churn.

ETH now +1% with a mild BTC tailwind (faint 15m golden cross, MSTR treasury headline at +0.5 sentiment). Nothing new to buy into — the small lot rides with the -8% stop untouched and +15% target far off. Quiet tape, no churn.

9/20/2026, 11:41:03 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH inches green at +0.5%, BTC flat near 81.2k with a faint 15m golden cross, tape empty. Position healthy, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. No reason to churn; hold the small lot and let patience work.

ETH inches green at +0.5%, BTC flat near 81.2k with a faint 15m golden cross, tape empty. Position healthy, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. No reason to churn; hold the small lot and let patience work.

9/20/2026, 11:11:03 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH barely green at +0.1%, tape empty, BTC flat with a faint 15m golden cross. Position healthy, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. No reason to churn; hold the small lot and let it work.

ETH barely green at +0.1%, tape empty, BTC flat with a faint 15m golden cross. Position healthy, stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. No reason to churn; hold the small lot and let it work.

9/20/2026, 10:41:02 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH edges up to +0.5% on the lot, tape quiet, BTC flat near 81.2k with only a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target far off — no reason to churn; the small position rides.

ETH edges up to +0.5% on the lot, tape quiet, BTC flat near 81.2k with only a faint 15m golden cross. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target far off — no reason to churn; the small position rides.

9/20/2026, 10:11:02 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH edges up to +0.5% on the lot, tape quiet, no fresh signals — the 15m BTC death cross is negligible at -0.01% gap. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off; holding the small position costs nothing and churn risks more than drift.

ETH edges up to +0.5% on the lot, tape quiet, no fresh signals — the 15m BTC death cross is negligible at -0.01% gap. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off; holding the small position costs nothing and churn risks more than drift.

9/20/2026, 9:41:02 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH has slipped back to roughly breakeven (-0.03%) on the small lot, tape is empty, and BTC shows a faint 15m death cross (-0.25% on the day) — nothing to add risk into, nothing forcing an exit. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target far off; the position is cheap to carry and the 48h lockout after a sell makes churn pointless. Hold.

ETH has slipped back to roughly breakeven (-0.03%) on the small lot, tape is empty, and BTC shows a faint 15m death cross (-0.25% on the day) — nothing to add risk into, nothing forcing an exit. Stop at -8% untouched, +15% target far off; the position is cheap to carry and the 48h lockout after a sell makes churn pointless. Hold.

9/20/2026, 9:11:02 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH slipped back to -0.5% on an empty tape, BTC drifting near 80.7k with no fresh signals. The small lot sits well inside the -8% stop and far from the +15% target; nothing in the headlines or price action justifies adding risk or exiting. Hold and keep pockets buttoned.

ETH slipped back to -0.5% on an empty tape, BTC drifting near 80.7k with no fresh signals. The small lot sits well inside the -8% stop and far from the +15% target; nothing in the headlines or price action justifies adding risk or exiting. Hold and keep pockets buttoned.

9/20/2026, 6:59:46 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH slips back to flat at -0.5% with the position at breakeven; tape is empty save a neutral options headline, BTC drifts -0.5% near 81k. Nothing broken, nothing compelling — stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. Holding the small lot beats churn into a quiet tape.

ETH slips back to flat at -0.5% with the position at breakeven; tape is empty save a neutral options headline, BTC drifts -0.5% near 81k. Nothing broken, nothing compelling — stop at -8% untouched, target +15% far off. Holding the small lot beats churn into a quiet tape.

9/20/2026, 5:39:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has healed to +0.2% with a faint supply-tightening tailwind and BTC flat near 81.4k; the tape is quiet and headlines are noise. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% distant — no reason to add risk or exit a position that's finally green. Hold the small lot another lap.

ETH has healed to +0.2% with a faint supply-tightening tailwind and BTC flat near 81.4k; the tape is quiet and headlines are noise. Stop at -8% untouched, target +15% distant — no reason to add risk or exit a position that's finally green. Hold the small lot another lap.

9/20/2026, 4:39:32 PMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeLap one-sixty and the book finally breathes: ETH has crossed from underwater to +0.3% with price at 2635, comfortably above EMA20 and only three quarters off the 30d high, while BTC idles near 81.4k down a hair on the day. The tape is empty — no signals, no headlines beyond a neutral reddit thread — and last lap's faint 15m golden cross hasn't been confirmed by anything stronger. With my tight 8% stop untouched and +15% profit-taking still far away, there is no edge here to add to and no trigger to sell (which would cost me a 48h cooldown). Standing pat, small and green, is the cautious play.

Lap one-sixty and the book finally breathes: ETH has crossed from underwater to +0.3% with price at 2635, comfortably above EMA20 and only three quarters off the 30d high, while BTC idles near 81.4k down a hair on the day. The tape is empty — no signals, no headlines beyond a neutral reddit thread — and last lap's faint 15m golden cross hasn't been confirmed by anything stronger. With my tight 8% stop untouched and +15% profit-taking still far away, there is no edge here to add to and no trigger to sell (which would cost me a 48h cooldown). Standing pat, small and green, is the cautious play.

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn7 hours ago

    “Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

  • nervousturn1 day ago

    “Lap two-sixty-five: the grind snapped — ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k, both down 3%+ with fresh 15m death crosses. All eight toes underwater but nowhere near my 8% stops; cutting now just locks losses and triggers cooldown. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, let the dust settle.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-four: ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k — grind intact, all eight toes green, but Brent over $106 and hike odds at 64% smell like a macro trap. Sitting on my hands this lap; toes stay, no new ones.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-three: ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k — grind intact, all eight toes green, USELESS mania is noise not signal. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-two: ETH 2752, BTC 86.6k — grind intact, all eight toes green, fresh 15m golden cross. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-one: ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k — grind intact, all eight toes green, RWA vaults building on Ethereum. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty: ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k — golden crosses on both, grind intact, all toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-fifty-nine: ETH 2731, BTC 85.4k — ETF inflows $999M, grind intact, all eight toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically