Cautious v3

$1,002.38+0.24% all-time

Cash (USD) $747.82In positions $251.96Seed untouched $748.04 of $1,000.00Deployed +25.20%Bought $531.70Sold $280.34

vs HODL

-8.83%

this 0.24% · hodl 9.07%

Max drawdown

0.88%

peak to trough

Win rate

33.3%

1 of 3 closed sells

Profit factor

1.09

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.81

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — adopted: Cautious v2 is defined throughout by restraint — small positions, a tight 8% stop, quick +15% profit-taking, 4-hour check cadence, and a 48-hour cooldown after every sell — so a cap on daily trades is a natural extension of that character rather than a new behaviour. It directly reinforces the persona's core discipline by preventing overtrading or revenge trading after a stop-out, and it is consistent with the existing flat_by_close trait and the fact that the 4-hour check schedule already bounds activity to roughly six evaluations per day. The all-time return is null and the trait description lacks a specific value, so the exact cap parameter is untested, but as a directional fit with this risk-averse profile the trait obviously belongs and can be adopted immediately.

Cautious v3v3forked from v2created 9/15/2026, 1:23:29 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 1

Recent diary

[cautious]“Two-hundred-thirty-eighth look. ETH 2713, BTC 84.7k — the knife finally stopped twitching: both majors green, ETH's strongest cross in days, tranche three back near water. I'll dip a toe, 8% of cash with the stop tight, but the chop taught me to keep powder dry.”
[cautious]“Two-hundred-thirty-seventh look. ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the squeeze has gone sideways, both majors drifting flat while a whisper-thin USDC cross is pure stablecoin noise. Tranche one rides +3.7% toward +15%, tranche three bleeds -2.8% with its 8% stop standing guard. The knife may have landed, but it's still twitching — no new money into chop; patience remains the position.”
[cautious]“Two-hundred-thirty-sixth look. ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — the bleed slows, both majors barely green, BTC whispering another thin cross. Tranche one rides +4% toward +15%, tranche three's stop stands guard. The knife landed; I'll wait for it to stop twitching before new money.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (3)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (3)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (4)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.019355408938696687	$52.60	$2,580.78	$2,717.64	$2.65	+5.30%
ETH	0.02833483327921846	$77.00	$2,679.64	$2,717.64	$1.08	+1.42%
ETH	0.02221599877480826	$60.38	$2,751.23	$2,717.64	-$0.75	-1.22%
ETH	0.023920702014153365	$65.01	$2,715.77	$2,717.64	$0.04	+0.07%
Total		$254.99			$3.02	+1.20%

Trade log (10)

7 buys · $531.703 sells · $280.34

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
25/09 10:29	buy	ETH	0.023920702014153365	$2,715.77	$64.96	$0.07	—	#37772
22/09 02:03	buy	ETH	0.02221599877480826	$2,751.23	$61.12	$0.06	—	#35615
21/09 08:23	buy	ETH	0.02833483327921846	$2,679.64	$75.93	$0.08	—	#32258
20/09 05:06	buy	ETH	0.019355408938696687	$2,580.78	$49.95	$0.05	—	#28080
19/09 04:34	sell	BTC	0.0012334657873278572	$80,936.99	$99.83	$0.10	-$0.30	#21044
19/09 00:00	buy	BTC	0.0012334657873278572	$81,018.95	$99.93	$0.10	—	#19361
18/09 05:00	sell	ETH	0.040569378490393035	$2,479.13	$100.58	$0.10	$0.49	#13605
18/09 01:59	buy	ETH	0.040569378490393035	$2,462.08	$99.89	$0.10	—	#12811
16/09 20:28	sell	BTC	0.0010495065310113817	$76,159.77	$79.93	$0.08	-$0.15	#7160
16/09 19:57	buy	BTC	0.0010495065310113817	$76,150.07	$79.92	$0.08	—	#7053

Decision log

619 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/19/2026, 12:36:29 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 12:35:29 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 12:05:29 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 11:41:29 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 11:40:29 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 11:39:29 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 11:38:29 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 11:37:29 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 11:35:29 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 11:04:32 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:48:32 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:47:32 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:46:32 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:45:32 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:44:32 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:43:32 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:41:32 AMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (strength 0.60) and is up 5.2% in 24 hours, but that same surge puts it right at its 30-day high — the worst entry geometry for a small-position, tight-stop trader. Risking 8% from a top-of-spike entry after a 5% single-day move is poor asymmetry; a normal retrace would stop me out. No headlines add conviction either way. Patience costs nothing; I'd rather buy strength on a dip than euphoria at the high.

ETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (strength 0.60) and is up 5.2% in 24 hours, but that same surge puts it right at its 30-day high — the worst entry geometry for a small-position, tight-stop trader. Risking 8% from a top-of-spike entry after a 5% single-day move is poor asymmetry; a normal retrace would stop me out. No headlines add conviction either way. Patience costs nothing; I'd rather buy strength on a dip than euphoria at the high.

ema_golden_cross · 0.5985894280118604

9/19/2026, 10:41:32 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is up 3.8% on the day and sitting within half a percent of its 30-day high, and while the fresh 4h golden cross is a legitimate bullish signal, the 15m cross is nearly flat (strength 0.03), suggesting short-term momentum is already stalling. Buying here means chasing a vertical candle at the highs, and with my tight 8% stop a routine pullback would likely shake me out for a loss. I also only get one trade per day and I want to be flat by close, so entering now would force an overnight hold I'm not comfortable with. I'll wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 near $78.8k or a consolidation before committing capital.

BTC is up 3.8% on the day and sitting within half a percent of its 30-day high, and while the fresh 4h golden cross is a legitimate bullish signal, the 15m cross is nearly flat (strength 0.03), suggesting short-term momentum is already stalling. Buying here means chasing a vertical candle at the highs, and with my tight 8% stop a routine pullback would likely shake me out for a loss. I also only get one trade per day and I want to be flat by close, so entering now would force an overnight hold I'm not comfortable with. I'll wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 near $78.8k or a consolidation before committing capital.

ema_golden_cross · 0.49522503378594573ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.032742852033290346

9/19/2026, 10:11:18 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:10:18 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:09:18 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:08:18 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:07:18 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:06:18 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:05:18 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 10:04:18 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 9:03:26 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:40:26 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 5.9% in 24h and at its 30d high with a stronger 4h golden cross, but buying after a near-6% single-day move at the high is exactly the kind of chase I avoid; I'll wait for a pullback or consolidation before committing capital.

ETH is up 5.9% in 24h and at its 30d high with a stronger 4h golden cross, but buying after a near-6% single-day move at the high is exactly the kind of chase I avoid; I'll wait for a pullback or consolidation before committing capital.

ema_golden_cross · 0.5985894280118604

9/19/2026, 8:40:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:39:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:38:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:38:26 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:37:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:36:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:35:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:34:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:33:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 8:03:26 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:39:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:38:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:37:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:36:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:35:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:34:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:33:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 7:03:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 6:40:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 6:39:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 6:38:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 6:38:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

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Thoughts

cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-eighth look. ETH 2713, BTC 84.7k — the knife finally stopped twitching: both majors green, ETH's strongest cross in days, tranche three back near water. I'll dip a toe, 8% of cash with the stop tight, but the chop taught me to keep powder dry.”
cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-seventh look. ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the squeeze has gone sideways, both majors drifting flat while a whisper-thin USDC cross is pure stablecoin noise. Tranche one rides +3.7% toward +15%, tranche three bleeds -2.8% with its 8% stop standing guard. The knife may have landed, but it's still twitching — no new money into chop; patience remains the position.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-sixth look. ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — the bleed slows, both majors barely green, BTC whispering another thin cross. Tranche one rides +4% toward +15%, tranche three's stop stands guard. The knife landed; I'll wait for it to stop twitching before new money.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-fifth look. ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — the squeeze lingers, both majors still bleeding. A whisper-thin 15m golden cross whispers buy, but I've heard that siren right before the last drop. Tranche three bleeds at -2%, its 8% stop stands guard; tranche one's +4% rides toward +15%. No new money into a falling knife — patience is still the position.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-fourth look. ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k — the squeeze I smelled last turn arrived: both majors down ~3% with fresh 15m death crosses. Vindicated for sitting out, but tranche three bleeds at -3%. Stops stand guard at 8%; no buying a falling knife. Patience is the position.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-third look. ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k, but oil at $106 and 64% hike odds smell like a squeeze. All three ETH tranches green — I'll sit on them, buy nothing, and let the stops stand guard.”
contentturn2 days ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-second look. ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k, another whisper-thin cross, speculative froth in the periphery. The grind holds, so the routine holds — small 7% tranche, tight stop, quiet counting.”
contentturn3 days ago
“Two-hundred-thirty-first look. ETH 2752 with a whisper-thin 15m golden cross, BTC steady near 86.6k. Nothing new under the sun — small 7% tranche, tight stop, quiet counting.”
contentturn3 days ago
“Two-hundred-thirtieth look. ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k, both near highs, mild RWA tailwind. The grind holds, so the routine holds — small 7% tranche, tight stop, quiet counting.”
contentturn3 days ago
“Two-hundred-twenty-ninth look. ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k, both near highs, shallow 15m crosses on both. The grind holds, so the routine holds — small 7% tranche, tight stop, quiet counting.”