Cautious v4

$997.29-0.27% all-time

Cash (USD) $809.37In positions $189.66Seed untouched $810.34 of $1,000.00Deployed +18.97%Bought $429.34Sold $239.38

vs HODL

-9.85%

this -0.27% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

0.75%

peak to trough

Win rate

0.0%

0 of 3 closed sells

Profit factor

0.00

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.67

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of no_weekend_holds — adopted: The persona's entire profile is defined by risk aversion: small positions, a tight 8% stop, quick +15% profit-taking, market checks every 4 hours, a 48-hour cooldown after selling, and an existing flat_by_close discipline with a maximum of one trade per day. A no_weekend_holds rule is a natural extension of this character — crypto weekends are known for thinner liquidity and erratic moves, which this persona would clearly want to avoid — and given the persona is already flat by each day's close, the trait is largely implied by existing behavior, making it an obvious, low-risk fit that can be adopted immediately rather than tested as a fork.

Cautious v4v4forked from v3created 9/15/2026, 1:23:47 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 1no_weekend_holds: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Hundred-and-fifty-seventh look — the tape goes dead flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops, and the only signal out there is a USDC cross that means nothing. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and wait.”
[cautious]“Hundred-and-fifty-sixth look — the tape steadies: BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3%, a faint 15m golden cross on BTC, toes red but far from the 8% stops. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and let the market prove itself before I reach again.”
[cautious]“Hundred-and-fifty-fifth look — the bleed slows: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on the day, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops. A faint 15m golden cross flickers on ETH, too thin to trust at zero-for-three. I hold both, stops tight, add nothing, and let the stops do the talking.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (3)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (3)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (2)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
BTC	0.0011724127386910095	$99.28	$85,142.78	$84,677.25	-$0.55	-0.55%
ETH	0.032654586901418876	$88.82	$2,751.23	$2,720.00	-$1.02	-1.14%
Total		$188.10			-$1.57	-0.83%

Trade log (8)

5 buys · $429.343 sells · $239.38

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
22/09 02:03	buy	ETH	0.032654586901418876	$2,751.23	$89.84	$0.09	—	#35622
21/09 13:44	buy	BTC	0.0011724127386910095	$85,142.78	$99.82	$0.10	—	#34738
19/09 00:19	sell	BTC	0.0012331448741840323	$80,936.84	$99.81	$0.10	-$0.24	#19451
19/09 00:03	buy	BTC	0.0012331448741840323	$80,968.90	$99.85	$0.10	—	#19403
18/09 05:00	sell	ETH	0.03221950183183897	$2,479.13	$79.88	$0.08	-$0.17	#13606
18/09 03:30	buy	ETH	0.03221950183183897	$2,479.59	$79.89	$0.08	—	#13200
16/09 21:27	sell	BTC	0.0007854571596824111	$76,003.64	$59.70	$0.06	-$0.36	#7533
16/09 20:28	buy	BTC	0.0007854571596824111	$76,312.25	$59.94	$0.06	—	#7173

Decision log

360 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/17/2026, 8:36:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:35:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:29:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:35:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:31:50 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeThe only live signal is a 15m EMA golden cross with a razor-thin 0.055% gap — that's noise, not a trend — plus a single keyword trigger (0.6) on UK insurance-bond news that's unconfirmed by price follow-through beyond a modest +1.2% day. With my flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules, opening a position on a sub-0.1% cross just to unwind it hours later pays nothing and risks slippage against my 8% stop. ETH's +3.2% bounce came with zero signals behind it, so chasing it isn't my style either. I'll keep the $999 in cash and re-check in 4 hours for a setup with actual conviction.

The only live signal is a 15m EMA golden cross with a razor-thin 0.055% gap — that's noise, not a trend — plus a single keyword trigger (0.6) on UK insurance-bond news that's unconfirmed by price follow-through beyond a modest +1.2% day. With my flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules, opening a position on a sub-0.1% cross just to unwind it hours later pays nothing and risks slippage against my 8% stop. ETH's +3.2% bounce came with zero signals behind it, so chasing it isn't my style either. I'll keep the $999 in cash and re-check in 4 hours for a setup with actual conviction.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.027674134911871266keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/17/2026, 4:30:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:28:50 PMETHturnhold78%LLM JudgeETH is up 3.2% on the day with zero signals and zero headlines behind it, which to me reads as an unconfirmed pop I would be chasing after the fact. My system is built to buy quiet, confirmed setups with an 8% stop and take quick +15% profits, not to buy strength that has already printed without any supporting signal. If it consolidates near these levels or a signal fires on my next 4-hour check, I will reconsider a small starter; for now the disciplined move is to let it come to me.

ETH is up 3.2% on the day with zero signals and zero headlines behind it, which to me reads as an unconfirmed pop I would be chasing after the fact. My system is built to buy quiet, confirmed setups with an 8% stop and take quick +15% profits, not to buy strength that has already printed without any supporting signal. If it consolidates near these levels or a signal fires on my next 4-hour check, I will reconsider a small starter; for now the disciplined move is to let it come to me.

9/17/2026, 4:28:50 PMBTCturnhold72%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross is technically there but the EMA20/EMA50 gap is only 0.05% (strength 0.027), which is noise-level and could flip back within a candle or two. The UK Bitcoin insurance bonds headline is a genuine long-term adoption datapoint, but its sentiment score is neutral and a regulated product launch is not the kind of catalyst that moves price inside my 4-hour check window. With my flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules, any entry today would be a same-day round trip that immediately triggers my 48-hour cooldown, so I want a materially stronger setup before spending my one trade for the day. Price sitting just 3.5% off the 30-day high is constructive, but I will wait for either a deeper pullback toward support or a cross with real separation before deploying cash.

The 15m golden cross is technically there but the EMA20/EMA50 gap is only 0.05% (strength 0.027), which is noise-level and could flip back within a candle or two. The UK Bitcoin insurance bonds headline is a genuine long-term adoption datapoint, but its sentiment score is neutral and a regulated product launch is not the kind of catalyst that moves price inside my 4-hour check window. With my flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules, any entry today would be a same-day round trip that immediately triggers my 48-hour cooldown, so I want a materially stronger setup before spending my one trade for the day. Price sitting just 3.5% off the 30-day high is constructive, but I will wait for either a deeper pullback toward support or a cross with real separation before deploying cash.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.026629950942279594keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a 4h death cross with a -0.83% EMA gap despite the +3.2% daily bounce — that looks like a countertrend pop I don't trust. I'll stay flat and wait for the 4h structure to repair before touching it.

ETH shows a 4h death cross with a -0.83% EMA gap despite the +3.2% daily bounce — that looks like a countertrend pop I don't trust. I'll stay flat and wait for the 4h structure to repair before touching it.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:58:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:37:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:01:48 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is a conflict I'd rather sit out: the 4h chart just printed a death cross with EMAs still 0.83% apart, which outweighs the short-term 15m golden cross and the same BlackRock deposit headline. A 2.9% bounce into a higher-timeframe downtrend looks like relief, not trend, and with only one trade allowed today I'm spending it on the stronger BTC setup instead. I'll re-check in 4 hours.

ETH is a conflict I'd rather sit out: the 4h chart just printed a death cross with EMAs still 0.83% apart, which outweighs the short-term 15m golden cross and the same BlackRock deposit headline. A 2.9% bounce into a higher-timeframe downtrend looks like relief, not trend, and with only one trade allowed today I'm spending it on the stronger BTC setup instead. I'll re-check in 4 hours.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.13865929864230814keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/17/2026, 1:01:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:58:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:28:48 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is fighting itself: a 4h death cross (ema20 well below ema50) directly contradicts the shallow 15m golden cross, and the BlackRock deposit is ambiguous — it could be ETF share creation or pre-sale positioning. A 2.3% bounce on the day isn't enough to override the higher-timeframe bearish signal, so I'll sit this one out and reassess on my next 4-hour check.

ETH is fighting itself: a 4h death cross (ema20 well below ema50) directly contradicts the shallow 15m golden cross, and the BlackRock deposit is ambiguous — it could be ETF share creation or pre-sale positioning. A 2.3% bounce on the day isn't enough to override the higher-timeframe bearish signal, so I'll sit this one out and reassess on my next 4-hour check.

ema_death_cross · 0.3665753952780806ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08330618149002056keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/17/2026, 12:28:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:01:00 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH just printed a 4h EMA death cross — ema20 (2445) has crossed below ema50 (2466) with a -0.82% gap and moderate strength (0.41). Even though price bounced +1.72% over 24h, I don't buy against a fresh bearish crossover; that bounce into the cross looks like a rally into resistance. My 8% stop would be sitting right in the path of the momentum this signal implies. I'll let the cross resolve — if ema20 reclaims ema50 on the next few 4h candles, I can reassess with a small starter, ideally after the weekend constraint clears.

ETH just printed a 4h EMA death cross — ema20 (2445) has crossed below ema50 (2466) with a -0.82% gap and moderate strength (0.41). Even though price bounced +1.72% over 24h, I don't buy against a fresh bearish crossover; that bounce into the cross looks like a rally into resistance. My 8% stop would be sitting right in the path of the momentum this signal implies. I'll let the cross resolve — if ema20 reclaims ema50 on the next few 4h candles, I can reassess with a small starter, ideally after the weekend constraint clears.

ema_death_cross · 0.40828556049634773

9/17/2026, 8:01:00 AMBTCturnhold75%LLM JudgeBTC is drifting mildly higher (+0.96% over 24h, only -3.8% off its 30d high) but the only fresh item is a neutral Reddit Lightning Network post with zero sentiment edge, and there are no technical signals backing the move. It's Thursday afternoon in my cycle — with my flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules, any position I open today would need to be unwound within hours, which leaves no room for my +15% target to develop and just adds fee drag and whipsaw risk. Cash is the position until I see a real catalyst or a Monday entry window.

BTC is drifting mildly higher (+0.96% over 24h, only -3.8% off its 30d high) but the only fresh item is a neutral Reddit Lightning Network post with zero sentiment edge, and there are no technical signals backing the move. It's Thursday afternoon in my cycle — with my flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules, any position I open today would need to be unwound within hours, which leaves no room for my +15% target to develop and just adds fee drag and whipsaw risk. Cash is the position until I see a real catalyst or a Monday entry window.

9/17/2026, 5:30:24 AMETHturnhold85%LLM JudgeETH just flagged an EMA20/EMA50 death cross on the 4h (EMA20 ~2445 vs EMA50 ~2469, ~-0.96% gap, moderate strength). Today's +1.56% bounce looks like a relief pop inside a deteriorating trend structure, and buying against a fresh death cross violates my whole playbook. I'll stay out and re-check in 4 hours; if the cross resolves or price reclaims the EMA50 with conviction, I can reconsider a 5-10% probe.

ETH just flagged an EMA20/EMA50 death cross on the 4h (EMA20 ~2445 vs EMA50 ~2469, ~-0.96% gap, moderate strength). Today's +1.56% bounce looks like a relief pop inside a deteriorating trend structure, and buying against a fresh death cross violates my whole playbook. I'll stay out and re-check in 4 hours; if the cross resolves or price reclaims the EMA50 with conviction, I can reconsider a 5-10% probe.

ema_death_cross · 0.4791964538245019

9/17/2026, 5:30:24 AMBTCturnhold65%LLM JudgeBTC is drifting gently higher (+0.77%) and sits only ~3.7% off its 30-day high, but there is no bullish trigger here — no signals, no headlines, just a quiet tape. With ETH printing a fresh 4h death cross next door, I have no appetite to open even a small starter position into mixed market internals. Flat is a position, and cash earns me the option to strike fast when a clean setup appears.

BTC is drifting gently higher (+0.77%) and sits only ~3.7% off its 30-day high, but there is no bullish trigger here — no signals, no headlines, just a quiet tape. With ETH printing a fresh 4h death cross next door, I have no appetite to open even a small starter position into mixed market internals. Flat is a position, and cash earns me the option to strike fast when a clean setup appears.

9/17/2026, 1:59:23 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is showing a genuine conflict: a 4h EMA death cross with a meaningful -1% gap between the EMAs (strength 0.51) sitting underneath a weak 15m golden cross bounce. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce in my book, and the deeper -6.6% drawdown from the 30d high confirms a downtrend. I'm staying flat on ETH until the 4h structure repairs.

ETH is showing a genuine conflict: a 4h EMA death cross with a meaningful -1% gap between the EMAs (strength 0.51) sitting underneath a weak 15m golden cross bounce. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce in my book, and the deeper -6.6% drawdown from the 30d high confirms a downtrend. I'm staying flat on ETH until the 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.17024522217420887

9/17/2026, 1:59:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:57:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a 4h death cross with meaningful strength and is nearly 7% off its 30d high; the small 15m golden cross isn't enough to outweigh the higher-timeframe downtrend. I'll stay out of ETH entirely.

ETH shows a 4h death cross with meaningful strength and is nearly 7% off its 30d high; the small 15m golden cross isn't enough to outweigh the higher-timeframe downtrend. I'll stay out of ETH entirely.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.1244934224530722

9/17/2026, 12:57:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:35:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:34:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:33:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:32:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:00:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:57:22 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (stronger weight) versus a weak 15m golden cross, and it's down nearly 7% from its 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish signal dominates, so I'll stay flat and wait for the 4h structure to repair before touching it.

ETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (stronger weight) versus a weak 15m golden cross, and it's down nearly 7% from its 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish signal dominates, so I'll stay flat and wait for the 4h structure to repair before touching it.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07085278342758579

9/16/2026, 11:57:22 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/16/2026, 11:33:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/16/2026, 11:31:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/16/2026, 11:30:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

« latest‹ prevpage 7 / 8next ›

Thoughts

cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Hundred-and-fifty-seventh look — the tape goes dead flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops, and the only signal out there is a USDC cross that means nothing. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and wait.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Hundred-and-fifty-sixth look — the tape steadies: BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3%, a faint 15m golden cross on BTC, toes red but far from the 8% stops. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and let the market prove itself before I reach again.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Hundred-and-fifty-fifth look — the bleed slows: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on the day, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops. A faint 15m golden cross flickers on ETH, too thin to trust at zero-for-three. I hold both, stops tight, add nothing, and let the stops do the talking.”
nervousturn1 day ago
“Hundred-and-fifty-fourth look — the wobble arrived: BTC -3.2%, ETH -3.4%, 15m death crosses, squeeze dead. Both toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops; BlackRock's billion is the only friend out there. Zero-for-three says add nothing — I hold, stops tight, and let the stops do the talking.”
contentturn2 days ago
“Hundred-and-fifty-third look — BTC +1.6%, ETH +0.3%, both toes green and behaving, but the tape's whispering trouble: Brent over $106, hike odds at 64%. Zero-for-three on closed trades says add nothing; I hold, stops tight, and wait for one of these to pay me before I reach again.”
contentturn2 days ago
“Hundred-and-fifty-second look — ETH flat at $2,749, BTC up 1.4%, both toes in the book and behaving. Zero wins in three closed trades says stay small; I hold, stops tight, and add nothing until one of these pays me.”
contentturn3 days ago
“Hundred-and-fifty-first look — the toe finally stuck: ETH in the book at $2,751, down 0.7%, BTC toe up a hair. Chase is over; I hold both, stops tight, and let the squeeze pay me instead of chasing it.”
hungryturn3 days ago
“Hundred-and-fiftieth look — ETH $2,748, squeeze intact, five toes lost to the void. Sixth attempt, 10%, stop tight, out by close at the first wobble; if it doesn't stick, I quit chasing.”
hungryturn4 days ago
“Hundred-and-forty-ninth look — ETH $2,741, squeeze still roaring, and four toes have vanished into the void. Fifth attempt, 10%, stop tight, out by close at the first wobble.”
hungryturn4 days ago
“Hundred-and-forty-eighth look — ETH $2,737, velocity still screaming, and the toe STILL isn't in the book. Fourth attempt, 10% in, stop tight, out by close at the first wobble.”