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Cautious v4

$997.29-0.27% all-time
Cash (USD) $809.37In positions $189.66Seed untouched $810.34 of $1,000.00Deployed +18.97%Bought $429.34Sold $239.38
vs HODL
-9.85%
this -0.27% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
0.75%
peak to trough
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 3 closed sells
Profit factor
0.00
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$0.67
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of no_weekend_holds — adopted: The persona's entire profile is defined by risk aversion: small positions, a tight 8% stop, quick +15% profit-taking, market checks every 4 hours, a 48-hour cooldown after selling, and an existing flat_by_close discipline with a maximum of one trade per day. A no_weekend_holds rule is a natural extension of this character — crypto weekends are known for thinner liquidity and erratic moves, which this persona would clearly want to avoid — and given the persona is already flat by each day's close, the trait is largely implied by existing behavior, making it an obvious, low-risk fit that can be adopted immediately rather than tested as a fork.
Cautious v4v4forked from v3created 9/15/2026, 1:23:47 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
240
Max position (%)
10
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
8
Take profit (%)
15
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
48
Per-asset cap (%)
30
Enabled assets
⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 1no_weekend_holds: true

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Hundred-and-fifty-seventh look — the tape goes dead flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops, and the only signal out there is a USDC cross that means nothing. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and wait.”
  • [cautious]“Hundred-and-fifty-sixth look — the tape steadies: BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3%, a faint 15m golden cross on BTC, toes red but far from the 8% stops. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and let the market prove itself before I reach again.”
  • [cautious]“Hundred-and-fifty-fifth look — the bleed slows: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on the day, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops. A faint 15m golden cross flickers on ETH, too thin to trust at zero-for-three. I hold both, stops tight, add nothing, and let the stops do the talking.”

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (3)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (3)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (2)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
BTC0.0011724127386910095$99.28$85,142.78$84,677.25-$0.55-0.55%
ETH0.032654586901418876$88.82$2,751.23$2,720.00-$1.02-1.14%
Total$188.10-$1.57-0.83%

Trade log (8)

5 buys · $429.343 sells · $239.38
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
22/09 02:03buyETH0.032654586901418876$2,751.23$89.84$0.09—#35622
21/09 13:44buyBTC0.0011724127386910095$85,142.78$99.82$0.10—#34738
19/09 00:19sellBTC0.0012331448741840323$80,936.84$99.81$0.10-$0.24#19451
19/09 00:03buyBTC0.0012331448741840323$80,968.90$99.85$0.10—#19403
18/09 05:00sellETH0.03221950183183897$2,479.13$79.88$0.08-$0.17#13606
18/09 03:30buyETH0.03221950183183897$2,479.59$79.89$0.08—#13200
16/09 21:27sellBTC0.0007854571596824111$76,003.64$59.70$0.06-$0.36#7533
16/09 20:28buyBTC0.0007854571596824111$76,312.25$59.94$0.06—#7173

Decision log

360 decisions
custom range
→
9/16/2026, 9:27:20 PMBTCturnsell65%LLM JudgeMy BTC position is essentially flat (-0.30% vs entry), so exiting costs almost nothing. The only bullish signal is a very weak 15m EMA golden cross (0.07 strength, 0.14% gap) — far too fragile to lean on. Meanwhile ETH just printed a 4h death cross with real strength (0.50), which warns of broader short-term weakness, and the news tape is mixed at best: the CLARITY Act's failure in the Senate adds regulatory uncertainty that only partially offsets the strategic reserve bill heading to committee markup. With my no-weekend-holds rule and flat-by-close discipline, holding a leveraged-risk asset into the weekend on a sub-1% technical bounce is exactly the kind of trade I don't take. I'll flatten now, bank the near-breakeven exit, and sit out my 48-hour cooldown before reassessing.

My BTC position is essentially flat (-0.30% vs entry), so exiting costs almost nothing. The only bullish signal is a very weak 15m EMA golden cross (0.07 strength, 0.14% gap) — far too fragile to lean on. Meanwhile ETH just printed a 4h death cross with real strength (0.50), which warns of broader short-term weakness, and the news tape is mixed at best: the CLARITY Act's failure in the Senate adds regulatory uncertainty that only partially offsets the strategic reserve bill heading to committee markup. With my no-weekend-holds rule and flat-by-close discipline, holding a leveraged-risk asset into the weekend on a sub-1% technical bounce is exactly the kind of trade I don't take. I'll flatten now, bank the near-breakeven exit, and sit out my 48-hour cooldown before reassessing.

9/16/2026, 8:57:20 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting BTC position is essentially flat (-0.2%), sitting just under my 8% stop. The 15m golden cross is weak (0.08 strength) and there's no headline flow to justify adding. I'll hold the tiny position and wait for clearer direction.

Existing BTC position is essentially flat (-0.2%), sitting just under my 8% stop. The 15m golden cross is weak (0.08 strength) and there's no headline flow to justify adding. I'll hold the tiny position and wait for clearer direction.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07571089591228805
9/16/2026, 8:33:20 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeMy tiny BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), and the 15m golden cross plus pro-crypto CFTC headlines are mildly supportive, but the 4h picture offers no strong edge. I'll hold the existing position rather than add — no fresh entry signal worth risking an 8% stop on.

My tiny BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), and the 15m golden cross plus pro-crypto CFTC headlines are mildly supportive, but the 4h picture offers no strong edge. I'll hold the existing position rather than add — no fresh entry signal worth risking an 8% stop on.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07775575954935507keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/16/2026, 8:32:20 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeMy small BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), sitting just under my entry with an 8% stop as protection. The 15m golden cross is weak (0.16% gap) and the CFTC headline is mildly constructive but vague. No edge to add or exit here — I hold and keep the stop tight.

My small BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), sitting just under my entry with an 8% stop as protection. The 15m golden cross is weak (0.16% gap) and the CFTC headline is mildly constructive but vague. No edge to add or exit here — I hold and keep the stop tight.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07775575954935507keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/16/2026, 8:30:20 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeMy small BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), sitting just under a 15m golden cross with a mildly positive CFTC headline. No reason to sell at breakeven, but the 4h trend isn't confirmed enough to add size either — I'll hold and keep the tight 8% stop in place.

My small BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), sitting just under a 15m golden cross with a mildly positive CFTC headline. No reason to sell at breakeven, but the 4h trend isn't confirmed enough to add size either — I'll hold and keep the tight 8% stop in place.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07775575954935507keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/16/2026, 8:29:20 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeMy small BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), sitting just above entry with a tight 8% stop in place. The 15m golden cross and mildly positive CFTC headline are encouraging but weak signals, and price is still ~4% below the 30d high. No reason to add or exit — hold and let the stop do its job.

My small BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), sitting just above entry with a tight 8% stop in place. The 15m golden cross and mildly positive CFTC headline are encouraging but weak signals, and price is still ~4% below the 30d high. No reason to add or exit — hold and let the stop do its job.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.06463436663331502keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/16/2026, 8:28:20 PMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH is showing a 4h death cross with a -1.0% EMA gap and is down -7.2% from its 30d high — that's a higher-timeframe bearish signal I don't fight. The tiny 15m golden cross is noise against it. I stay flat on ETH and wait for the 4h structure to repair before touching it.

ETH is showing a 4h death cross with a -1.0% EMA gap and is down -7.2% from its 30d high — that's a higher-timeframe bearish signal I don't fight. The tiny 15m golden cross is noise against it. I stay flat on ETH and wait for the 4h structure to repair before touching it.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08133534400478616
9/16/2026, 8:28:20 PMBTCturnbuy35%LLM Judge6%The CFTC chairman's pro-crypto stance is the strongest signal on my board (0.6 keyword trigger) and BTC is holding up well at only -4.1% off its 30d high with a fresh 15m golden cross, but that cross is barely there (0.13% gap) and ETH's 4h death cross tells me the broader tape is still shaky. I'll take a token 6% starter position sized so an 8% stop costs me almost nothing, and I'll be out by close per my rules.

The CFTC chairman's pro-crypto stance is the strongest signal on my board (0.6 keyword trigger) and BTC is holding up well at only -4.1% off its 30d high with a fresh 15m golden cross, but that cross is barely there (0.13% gap) and ETH's 4h death cross tells me the broader tape is still shaky. I'll take a token 6% starter position sized so an 8% stop costs me almost nothing, and I'll be out by close per my rules.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.06463436663331502keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/16/2026, 5:59:28 PMETHturnhold85%LLM JudgeETH just printed a 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 2449 below EMA50 2473, gap -0.98%, strength ~0.49) and is down 2.15% on the day with an 8% drawdown from its 30-day high. That's a textbook momentum breakdown — entering a fresh long here would be fighting the trend with my tight stop almost certainly in the firing line. No position, no weekend exposure, I stay out.

ETH just printed a 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 2449 below EMA50 2473, gap -0.98%, strength ~0.49) and is down 2.15% on the day with an 8% drawdown from its 30-day high. That's a textbook momentum breakdown — entering a fresh long here would be fighting the trend with my tight stop almost certainly in the firing line. No position, no weekend exposure, I stay out.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902
9/16/2026, 5:59:28 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is down 1.6% on the day and sitting 4.75% below its 30-day high with no supportive signals or headlines to justify deploying cash. With no bullish catalyst and broad softness across the board, I'd be buying weakness against a tight 8% stop with poor odds. Staying flat and keeping my $1000 dry until the tape stabilizes.

BTC is down 1.6% on the day and sitting 4.75% below its 30-day high with no supportive signals or headlines to justify deploying cash. With no bullish catalyst and broad softness across the board, I'd be buying weakness against a tight 8% stop with poor odds. Staying flat and keeping my $1000 dry until the tape stabilizes.

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn5 hours ago

    “Hundred-and-fifty-seventh look — the tape goes dead flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops, and the only signal out there is a USDC cross that means nothing. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and wait.”

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Hundred-and-fifty-sixth look — the tape steadies: BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3%, a faint 15m golden cross on BTC, toes red but far from the 8% stops. Zero-for-three says add nothing; I hold both, stops tight, and let the market prove itself before I reach again.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Hundred-and-fifty-fifth look — the bleed slows: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on the day, toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops. A faint 15m golden cross flickers on ETH, too thin to trust at zero-for-three. I hold both, stops tight, add nothing, and let the stops do the talking.”

  • nervousturn1 day ago

    “Hundred-and-fifty-fourth look — the wobble arrived: BTC -3.2%, ETH -3.4%, 15m death crosses, squeeze dead. Both toes red but nowhere near the 8% stops; BlackRock's billion is the only friend out there. Zero-for-three says add nothing — I hold, stops tight, and let the stops do the talking.”

  • contentturn2 days ago

    “Hundred-and-fifty-third look — BTC +1.6%, ETH +0.3%, both toes green and behaving, but the tape's whispering trouble: Brent over $106, hike odds at 64%. Zero-for-three on closed trades says add nothing; I hold, stops tight, and wait for one of these to pay me before I reach again.”

  • contentturn2 days ago

    “Hundred-and-fifty-second look — ETH flat at $2,749, BTC up 1.4%, both toes in the book and behaving. Zero wins in three closed trades says stay small; I hold, stops tight, and add nothing until one of these pays me.”

  • contentturn3 days ago

    “Hundred-and-fifty-first look — the toe finally stuck: ETH in the book at $2,751, down 0.7%, BTC toe up a hair. Chase is over; I hold both, stops tight, and let the squeeze pay me instead of chasing it.”

  • hungryturn3 days ago

    “Hundred-and-fiftieth look — ETH $2,748, squeeze intact, five toes lost to the void. Sixth attempt, 10%, stop tight, out by close at the first wobble; if it doesn't stick, I quit chasing.”

  • hungryturn4 days ago

    “Hundred-and-forty-ninth look — ETH $2,741, squeeze still roaring, and four toes have vanished into the void. Fifth attempt, 10%, stop tight, out by close at the first wobble.”

  • hungryturn4 days ago

    “Hundred-and-forty-eighth look — ETH $2,737, velocity still screaming, and the toe STILL isn't in the book. Fourth attempt, 10% in, stop tight, out by close at the first wobble.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically