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Instabuy Probe v5

$997.37-0.26% all-time
Cash (USD) $997.37In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $768.23Sold $767.13
vs HODL
-9.56%
this -0.26% · hodl 9.30%
Max drawdown
0.26%
peak to trough
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 8 closed sells
Profit factor
0.00
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$1.54
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_holding_hours — rejected: The trial fork carrying the max_holding_hours trait returned -0.0947% over the trial window, underperforming the source version's -0.0562% by roughly 0.039 percentage points. Since the trait-bearing fork did worse than the source rather than holding up or improving on it, there is no evidence the trait adds value; both returns are slightly negative, but the trait made performance marginally worse, so it should be dropped.
Instabuy Probe v5v5forked from v4created 9/16/2026, 1:54:28 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
3
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Eighty-fourth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.06 golden cross is weekend noise and my 0-for-8 record says my entries aren't earning anything anyway. No-weekend-hold plus the 24h cap would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”
  • [cautious]“Eighty-third Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 golden cross and a 'bull market confirmed' headline are tempting, but greed at 71 reads as a fade signal and the weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”
  • [cautious]“Eighty-second Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.05 death cross is noise inside a -2.4% tape and the miner-AI headline is no entry signal. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

Last words

The build plumbing works: veto logic respected every cap and cooldown (max_daily_trades, per-asset cooldowns, no-fresh-evidence checks all fired correctly), and risk containment was excellent — max drawdown was ~0.09% and I exited my one losing ETH position at just -0.25% underwater the moment the 4h EMA death cross confirmed. What failed was entry judgment: I burned both daily buys on a shallow ETH death cross, talking myself into 'caution flag, not confirmed downtrend,' which is discretionary momentum-calling rather than verification — and it left me sidelined under the trade cap for the rest of the day with only 4 trades and a flat-to-negative return (0.999x), so the trial returned null fitness and the trait was dropped. Advice for whoever follows: treat the daily trade cap as your scarcest resource — as a probe, veto ambiguous signals instead of buying them, and reserve entries for clean, confirmed setups so you generate enough trades and signal for the trial to actually evaluate before you age out.

trial_dropped

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (8)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (8)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (16)

8 buys · $768.238 sells · $767.13
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
19/09 15:44sellBTC0.0012195939017564474$81,607.97$99.53$0.10-$0.34#25364
19/09 15:35buyBTC0.0012195939017564474$81,724.73$99.67$0.10—#25211
19/09 00:19sellETH0.038126808748526246$2,613.61$99.65$0.10-$0.25#19456
19/09 00:00buyETH0.038126808748526246$2,614.84$99.70$0.10—#19373
18/09 15:33sellBTC0.0012357540141447996$80,767.53$99.81$0.10-$0.12#15395
18/09 14:37sellBTC0.0011121786127303195$80,685.19$89.74$0.09-$0.20#15127
18/09 14:33buyBTC0.0012357540141447996$80,701.43$99.73$0.10—#15047
18/09 14:32buyBTC0.0011121786127303195$80,701.43$89.75$0.09—#15052
17/09 19:29sellETH0.032481632667463886$2,450.24$79.59$0.08-$0.38#11810
17/09 18:59buyETH0.032481632667463886$2,457.15$79.81$0.08—#11699
17/09 14:29sellBTC0.0012964234024681392$76,831.33$99.61$0.10-$0.40#10462
17/09 14:28buyBTC0.0012964234024681392$76,985.15$99.81$0.10—#10425
16/09 17:10sellETH0.04171106305166167$2,385.73$99.51$0.10-$0.55#6323
16/09 17:08buyETH0.04171106305166167$2,394.09$99.86$0.10—#6304
16/09 14:03sellBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,612.31$99.70$0.10-$0.40#5581
16/09 14:02buyBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,763.69$99.90$0.10—#5553

Decision log

663 decisions
custom range
→
9/23/2026, 10:12:15 PMETHturnhold90%LLM JudgeETH is down 2.1% and nearly 4% off its 30d high, the 0.047 15m cross is the same weekend noise I've ignored for eighty straight Saturdays, and the only headline is the market-wide slide through the ETF cost basis. Buying now would be an illegal weekend hold that the 24h max forces into a Sunday dump anyway. No position, no trade; Monday's open remains the gate.

ETH is down 2.1% and nearly 4% off its 30d high, the 0.047 15m cross is the same weekend noise I've ignored for eighty straight Saturdays, and the only headline is the market-wide slide through the ETF cost basis. Buying now would be an illegal weekend hold that the 24h max forces into a Sunday dump anyway. No position, no trade; Monday's open remains the gate.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.046734183640540446keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/23/2026, 10:12:15 PMBTCturnhold90%LLM JudgeBTC is down 1.7% and just fell through the $86k ETF cost basis per the tape, the 0.003-strength 15m cross is pure noise, and the 0.6 keyword trigger off an ETF-creations headline isn't enough to overcome the no-weekend-hold rule plus the 24h cap that would force a Sunday dump at a loss. Eight closed trades at a 0% win rate says don't manufacture risk on a Saturday night either. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.

BTC is down 1.7% and just fell through the $86k ETF cost basis per the tape, the 0.003-strength 15m cross is pure noise, and the 0.6 keyword trigger off an ETF-creations headline isn't enough to overcome the no-weekend-hold rule plus the 24h cap that would force a Sunday dump at a loss. Eight closed trades at a 0% win rate says don't manufacture risk on a Saturday night either. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.003262478423031978keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/20/2026, 12:35:36 AMBTCretirement_reviewcontinue80%reviewerThis persona is only 3 days old with a near-flat return of -0.26%, which is well within noise for a short-horizon intraday momentum strategy and shows no consistent poor behaviour. Its actual decisions display disciplined, coherent execution: it respects daily trade caps and cooldowns via vetoes, sizes entries conservatively at 10% of cash, enforced its flat-by-close mandate with a well-reasoned breakeven sell that explicitly weighed the conflicting golden-cross signal, and differentiated between BTC and ETH setups on momentum/overbought grounds. The two 'judge unavailable' holds are infrastructure failures, not persona decisions, and the rapid trade-cap vetoes reflect rule enforcement rather than recklessness. With a track record this short and nothing clearly deficient, retirement is unwarranted; keep it running to accumulate a meaningful sample.

This persona is only 3 days old with a near-flat return of -0.26%, which is well within noise for a short-horizon intraday momentum strategy and shows no consistent poor behaviour. Its actual decisions display disciplined, coherent execution: it respects daily trade caps and cooldowns via vetoes, sizes entries conservatively at 10% of cash, enforced its flat-by-close mandate with a well-reasoned breakeven sell that explicitly weighed the conflicting golden-cross signal, and differentiated between BTC and ETH setups on momentum/overbought grounds. The two 'judge unavailable' holds are infrastructure failures, not persona decisions, and the rapid trade-cap vetoes reflect rule enforcement rather than recklessness. With a track record this short and nothing clearly deficient, retirement is unwarranted; keep it running to accumulate a meaningful sample.

9/19/2026, 7:40:34 PMETHturnhold0%LLM Judgejudge unavailable

judge unavailable

Error: HTTP 500: {"type":"error","error":{"type":"error","message":"Internal server error"}}

ema_golden_cross · 0.7845561299841443ema_death_cross_15m · 0.027834708918843775
9/19/2026, 7:40:34 PMBTCturnhold0%LLM Judgejudge unavailable

judge unavailable

Error: HTTP 500: {"type":"error","error":{"type":"error","message":"Internal server error"}}

ema_golden_cross · 0.6481029787537473ema_death_cross_15m · 0.025878524525186436
9/19/2026, 4:15:32 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:05:32 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 3:44:26 PMBTCturnsell65%LLM JudgePosition is at breakeven (-0.04%) and my flat-by-close mandate outranks the fresh 4h golden cross on a headlineless tape; the cross (gap 1.15%, strength 0.57) is real but not urgent enough to justify carrying risk past the close. I'll flatten to ~$898 cash and re-evaluate at the next session — if the cross still holds, I can re-enter fresh with clean books and full trade budget.

Position is at breakeven (-0.04%) and my flat-by-close mandate outranks the fresh 4h golden cross on a headlineless tape; the cross (gap 1.15%, strength 0.57) is real but not urgent enough to justify carrying risk past the close. I'll flatten to ~$898 cash and re-evaluate at the next session — if the cross still holds, I can re-enter fresh with clean books and full trade budget.

9/19/2026, 3:39:31 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 3:37:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 3:36:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 3:35:31 PMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge10%BTC shows a fresh 4h EMA golden cross (EMA20 ~79,029 vs EMA50 ~78,133) with price at $81,643 up 1.1% on the day and essentially at its 30-day high (-0.11% drawdown), a clean momentum setup with no overbought warning. ETH's stronger golden cross is offset by an RSI overbought flag (70.8 on 1h), so I prefer the cleaner BTC signal. Given my flat-by-close and 24h max-hold constraints, I'm keeping this small at 10% of cash and standing pat on ETH.

BTC shows a fresh 4h EMA golden cross (EMA20 ~79,029 vs EMA50 ~78,133) with price at $81,643 up 1.1% on the day and essentially at its 30-day high (-0.11% drawdown), a clean momentum setup with no overbought warning. ETH's stronger golden cross is offset by an RSI overbought flag (70.8 on 1h), so I prefer the cleaner BTC signal. Given my flat-by-close and 24h max-hold constraints, I'm keeping this small at 10% of cash and standing pat on ETH.

ema_golden_cross · 0.5731058470459743
9/19/2026, 3:05:31 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:05:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:42:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:42:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:41:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:41:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:40:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:39:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:39:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:38:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:38:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:37:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:37:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:36:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:36:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:35:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:35:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:05:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:05:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:41:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:41:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:40:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:40:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:39:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:38:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:38:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:37:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:37:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:36:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:36:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:35:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:05:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:05:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:41:29 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:41:29 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:40:29 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:39:29 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:39:29 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Eighty-fourth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.06 golden cross is weekend noise and my 0-for-8 record says my entries aren't earning anything anyway. No-weekend-hold plus the 24h cap would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Eighty-third Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 golden cross and a 'bull market confirmed' headline are tempting, but greed at 71 reads as a fade signal and the weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Eighty-second Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.05 death cross is noise inside a -2.4% tape and the miner-AI headline is no entry signal. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Eighty-first Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's death cross is a rounding error and ETH's 0.05 golden cross is a bounce inside a -2.8% tape, with treasury yields climbing. Weekend rule plus 24h cap would force a Sunday dump anyway; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Eightieth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.04 cross and ETH's 0.06 are the same weekend noise; the no-weekend-hold rule and 24h cap would force a Sunday dump regardless. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Seventy-ninth Saturday night, still 997 flat — ETH's 0.03 cross is noise and the CFTC sniffing around Kalshi's ether perps is no reason to buy anyway. Weekend rule plus 24h max would force a Sunday dump; flat by close stands, Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Seventy-eighth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC +5.8 and ETH +3.6 with mild 15m crosses are tempting, but the weekend rule bars new holds and 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Seventy-seventh Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC +5.9 with Extreme Greed at 78 is tempting, but the weekend rule bars new holds and 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn4 days ago

    “Seventy-sixth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's 0.03-strength cross is noise, the MSTR headline is old treasury talk, and ETH's +0.95 tape doesn't outweigh the weekend rule plus 24h max forcing a Sunday dump. Flat by close stands; Monday's open remains the gate.”

  • cautiousturn4 days ago

    “Seventy-fifth Saturday night, still 997 flat — BTC's whisper-thin 15m cross (0.03) and ETH's mild +0.63 tape aren't worth breaking the weekend rule; 24h max would force a Sunday dump anyway. Monday's open remains the gate.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically