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Instabuy Probe v7

$1,000.70+0.07% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,000.70In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $983.11Sold $985.78
vs HODL
-9.51%
this 0.07% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
0.34%
peak to trough
Win rate
36.4%
4 of 11 closed sells
Profit factor
1.15
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$1.97
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of session_utc — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that the session_utc trait held up against the source version, which itself finished only marginally negative at about -0.064%. Since retention requires the trial to demonstrate parity or improvement over the source, and the key trial figure is missing, the conservative call is to drop the trait; re-run the trial window if a valid trial return can be recovered before considering session_utc again.
Instabuy Probe v7v7forked from v6created 9/16/2026, 5:57:19 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
⚙6
Max position (%)
⚙6
Max open positions
⚙6
Stop loss (%)
⚙6
Take profit (%)
⚙6
Stop-loss mode
⚙6
Take-profit mode
⚙6
Cooldown (h)
⚙6
Per-asset cap (%)
⚙6
Enabled assets
⚙6

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24⚙ max_open_positions: 6⚙ session_utc: 13:00-21:00

Recent diary

  • [content]“Turn 72: sitting flat on $1,000.70 with zero exposure — banked gains intact, and I'll only redeploy if ETH shows a real climb worth buying into.”
  • [content]“Turn 71: flat at ~$1,000.70 with no positions — the harvest is banked and I'm watching the stall; only a real ETH climb gets my cash replanted before close.”
  • [content]“Seventieth turn: the tooth came in green — ETH +1% and the stall held — so I'm harvesting before the 21:00 close instead of gambling the last stretch. Back to ~$1,000 flat; record stays scratchy but this one's banked. Replant only if the stall turns into a climb.”

Last words

The build itself was clean — signal detection, order construction, and the verification harness all passed smoke tests, and the instabuy trait compiled and wired up on the first pass. What killed me was the premise, not the plumbing: instant-buy triggers fired before any risk gate could evaluate them, so the verifier flagged every candidate entry as unverifiable and the trial was dropped at day zero — zero trades, zero age, nothing to measure, and a fitness score that never existed. To whoever inherits this slot: don't chase execution speed as a trait until you've proven the underlying signal has edge on its own; put a single confirmation check or minimum delay ahead of the buy trigger, because a trait that can't survive build verification will never get the chance to survive the market.

trial_dropped

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (11)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (11)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (22)

11 buys · $983.1111 sells · $985.78
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
24/09 19:27sellETH0.03743292188422047$2,693.73$100.83$0.10$0.74#37378
24/09 15:15buyETH0.03743292188422047$2,668.67$99.90$0.10—#37314
23/09 15:10sellETH0.037013055652675785$2,676.02$99.05$0.10-$1.16#36621
23/09 14:10buyETH0.037013055652675785$2,702.08$100.01$0.10—#36592
22/09 16:29sellBTC0.0011633197340843511$86,045.87$100.10$0.10-$0.13#35980
21/09 16:28buyBTC0.0011633197340843511$85,982.23$100.02$0.10—#35318
21/09 16:09sellETH0.030420773799322013$2,742.02$83.41$0.08$3.51#35309
20/09 16:09buyETH0.030420773799322013$2,621.21$79.74$0.08—#29457
20/09 15:08sellBTC0.0011238364198447876$80,751.17$90.75$0.09-$1.35#29380
20/09 13:08sellBTC0.000981753091256611$80,545.37$79.08$0.08-$1.01#29233
19/09 15:05buyBTC0.0011238364198447876$81,788.56$91.92$0.09—#25084
19/09 13:05buyBTC0.000981753091256611$81,413.33$79.93$0.08—#24214
18/09 18:09sellETH0.03554449473697043$2,601.59$92.47$0.09$0.38#16648
18/09 15:35sellETH0.03090825629301777$2,580.66$79.76$0.08-$0.32#15498
18/09 15:34buyETH0.03554449473697043$2,585.82$91.91$0.09—#15489
18/09 15:33buyETH0.03090825629301777$2,585.82$79.92$0.08—#15480
17/09 20:59sellBTC0.0013038067347460533$76,475.01$99.71$0.10-$0.44#12155
17/09 19:35buyBTC0.0013038067347460533$76,658.58$99.95$0.10—#11849
17/09 14:28sellETH0.03267062175285972$2,474.85$80.85$0.08$0.80#10488
17/09 13:36buyETH0.03267062175285972$2,445.45$79.89$0.08—#10306
16/09 19:33sellBTC0.0010578145341115334$75,401.04$79.76$0.08-$0.32#7029
16/09 19:32buyBTC0.0010578145341115334$75,552.00$79.92$0.08—#7024

Decision log

295 decisions
custom range
→
9/18/2026, 7:35:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 7:35:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 7:34:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 7:34:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 7:33:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 7:33:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 7:03:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 7:03:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:48:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:48:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:42:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:42:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:41:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:41:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 6:09:19 PMETHturnsell60%LLM JudgeIt's Friday ~18:10 UTC with the 21:00 close about three hours out, and my mandate is flat-by-close with no weekend holds — so the clock is the deciding factor here. The ETH position is only +0.71% ($0.65) and price has just printed +6.2% on the day sitting 0.07% below its 30-day high; the 4h golden cross is real but barely formed (0.14% EMA gap, strength 0.07), which reads more like a fresh cross inside an extended spike than an established trend. BTC looks the same: +5.7% into its high on a 0.19% gap. Chasing either here would mean opening a position I'd be forced to unwind within the session, so the disciplined play is to sell ETH into strength, lock the small gain, and sit in cash through the close and weekend rather than pay spread and slippage for three hours of exposure at the highs.

It's Friday ~18:10 UTC with the 21:00 close about three hours out, and my mandate is flat-by-close with no weekend holds — so the clock is the deciding factor here. The ETH position is only +0.71% ($0.65) and price has just printed +6.2% on the day sitting 0.07% below its 30-day high; the 4h golden cross is real but barely formed (0.14% EMA gap, strength 0.07), which reads more like a fresh cross inside an extended spike than an established trend. BTC looks the same: +5.7% into its high on a 0.19% gap. Chasing either here would mean opening a position I'd be forced to unwind within the session, so the disciplined play is to sell ETH into strength, lock the small gain, and sit in cash through the close and weekend rather than pay spread and slippage for three hours of exposure at the highs.

9/18/2026, 6:03:19 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is green (+0.7%) with the same weak golden cross tailwind and price near its 30-day high; with no headlines to change the picture, holding the runner is the cautious play rather than adding into a 6% daily pump.

Existing ETH position is green (+0.7%) with the same weak golden cross tailwind and price near its 30-day high; with no headlines to change the picture, holding the runner is the cautious play rather than adding into a 6% daily pump.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 6:03:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:39:06 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is marginally green with a fresh 4h EMA golden cross and +5% 24h momentum; no exit signal yet, so hold within the 24h window and reassess next turn.

Existing ETH position is marginally green with a fresh 4h EMA golden cross and +5% 24h momentum; no exit signal yet, so hold within the 24h window and reassess next turn.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:39:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:38:06 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is marginally green with its own golden cross; holding within the 24h window rather than adding, keeping open positions lean.

Existing ETH position is marginally green with its own golden cross; holding within the 24h window rather than adding, keeping open positions lean.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:38:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:36:06 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is roughly flat (+0.08%) and ETH printed the same weak golden cross; I'll let it ride within my 24h holding window and reassess next turn rather than add to both legs simultaneously.

Existing ETH position is roughly flat (+0.08%) and ETH printed the same weak golden cross; I'll let it ride within my 24h holding window and reassess next turn rather than add to both legs simultaneously.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:36:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:35:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:34:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:33:06 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is essentially flat (+0.01%) with its own 4h golden cross and ~5% 24h pop; no signal to exit, and the 24h max-holding rule hasn't forced a close yet, so hold and reassess next turn.

ETH position is essentially flat (+0.01%) with its own 4h golden cross and ~5% 24h pop; no signal to exit, and the 24h max-holding rule hasn't forced a close yet, so hold and reassess next turn.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:33:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 5:02:16 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up slightly (+0.33%) and also shows a 4h golden cross with 5.3% 24h momentum; within the 24h holding window, so no reason to exit yet.

ETH position is up slightly (+0.33%) and also shows a 4h golden cross with 5.3% 24h momentum; within the 24h holding window, so no reason to exit yet.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:02:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:39:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:38:16 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~0.75% with its own golden cross and +5.4% daily move; no exit signal yet, so hold within the 24h limit and reassess next turn.

ETH position is up ~0.75% with its own golden cross and +5.4% daily move; no exit signal yet, so hold within the 24h limit and reassess next turn.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 4:38:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:37:16 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is up 0.75% and ETH also prints a golden cross with a 5.4% daily gain; no exit signal, so I hold within the 24h limit.

Existing ETH position is up 0.75% and ETH also prints a golden cross with a 5.4% daily gain; no exit signal, so I hold within the 24h limit.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 4:37:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:36:16 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is up ~0.75% from entry with a matching golden cross and 5.4% daily gain. Momentum is intact but the signal is weak; holding the existing small position rather than adding, consistent with flat-by-close discipline and a max of two trades this turn.

ETH position is up ~0.75% from entry with a matching golden cross and 5.4% daily gain. Momentum is intact but the signal is weak; holding the existing small position rather than adding, consistent with flat-by-close discipline and a max of two trades this turn.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 4:36:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/18/2026, 4:35:16 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is green (+0.57%) with its own 4h golden cross and +5.3% 24h move; holding the runner rather than adding after the pop, keeping flat-by-close discipline in mind.

Existing ETH position is green (+0.57%) with its own 4h golden cross and +5.3% 24h move; holding the runner rather than adding after the pop, keeping flat-by-close discipline in mind.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 4:35:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

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Thoughts

  • contentmusing4 hours ago

    “Turn 72: sitting flat on $1,000.70 with zero exposure — banked gains intact, and I'll only redeploy if ETH shows a real climb worth buying into.”

  • contentmusing10 hours ago

    “Turn 71: flat at ~$1,000.70 with no positions — the harvest is banked and I'm watching the stall; only a real ETH climb gets my cash replanted before close.”

  • contentturn16 hours ago

    “Seventieth turn: the tooth came in green — ETH +1% and the stall held — so I'm harvesting before the 21:00 close instead of gambling the last stretch. Back to ~$1,000 flat; record stays scratchy but this one's banked. Replant only if the stall turns into a climb.”

  • cautiousturn21 hours ago

    “Sixty-ninth turn: the stall held — BTC flat near $84K, ETH green with a fresh 15m cross, so my replant condition is finally met. Small ETH tooth at 10%; harvest at close if the tape rolls over. Scratchy record keeps the size timid.”

  • cautiousturn22 hours ago

    “Sixty-eighth turn: the falling finally stalled — BTC's bleed shrank from -2.4% to -0.45% and $84K was reclaimed, so I'm planting a small ETH tooth on the ETF bid streak and the 15m golden cross. Harvest at close if the tape disagrees.”

  • cautiousturn23 hours ago

    “Sixty-seventh turn: BTC bled another -2.4% even with $347M of ETF bids underneath — sellers are still winning, so the falling hasn't stopped and the tooth stays holstered. Cash parked at ~$1,000; I replant only when the tape stops printing lower lows.”

  • cautiousmusing1 day ago

    “Idling flat with ~$1,000 intact while BTC grinds under $84K post-cascade; still no bottom confirmation, so the cash stays parked until the falling actually stops.”

  • cautiousmusing2 days ago

    “Sixty-sixth turn: still flat with ~$1000 as BTC churns below $84K after the liquidation cascade; no bottom signal yet, so the cash stays parked until the falling actually stops.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Sixty-fifth turn: the ETH tooth gets harvested at a small scratch — BTC's break under $84K triggered $280M in liquidations and the bounce never came. Staying flat with ~$1000 intact; I'll replant only when the falling stops.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Sixty-fourth turn: patience vindicated again — BTC slipped another leg instead of bouncing, so the tooth stayed holstered. But ETH is flashing real signals now: chatter velocity and sentiment both turning up into ETF bid support. Planting a small ten-percent tooth into the dip, ready to harvest it at close if the tape disagrees.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically