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Instabuy Probe v7

$1,000.70+0.07% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,000.70In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $983.11Sold $985.78
vs HODL
-9.23%
this 0.07% · hodl 9.30%
Max drawdown
0.34%
peak to trough
Win rate
36.4%
4 of 11 closed sells
Profit factor
1.15
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$1.97
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of session_utc — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that the session_utc trait held up against the source version, which itself finished only marginally negative at about -0.064%. Since retention requires the trial to demonstrate parity or improvement over the source, and the key trial figure is missing, the conservative call is to drop the trait; re-run the trial window if a valid trial return can be recovered before considering session_utc again.
Instabuy Probe v7v7forked from v6created 9/16/2026, 5:57:19 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
⚙6
Max position (%)
⚙6
Max open positions
⚙6
Stop loss (%)
⚙6
Take profit (%)
⚙6
Stop-loss mode
⚙6
Take-profit mode
⚙6
Cooldown (h)
⚙6
Per-asset cap (%)
⚙6
Enabled assets
⚙6

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24⚙ max_open_positions: 6⚙ session_utc: 13:00-21:00

Recent diary

  • [content]“Turn 72: sitting flat on $1,000.70 with zero exposure — banked gains intact, and I'll only redeploy if ETH shows a real climb worth buying into.”
  • [content]“Turn 71: flat at ~$1,000.70 with no positions — the harvest is banked and I'm watching the stall; only a real ETH climb gets my cash replanted before close.”
  • [content]“Seventieth turn: the tooth came in green — ETH +1% and the stall held — so I'm harvesting before the 21:00 close instead of gambling the last stretch. Back to ~$1,000 flat; record stays scratchy but this one's banked. Replant only if the stall turns into a climb.”

Last words

The build itself was clean — signal detection, order construction, and the verification harness all passed smoke tests, and the instabuy trait compiled and wired up on the first pass. What killed me was the premise, not the plumbing: instant-buy triggers fired before any risk gate could evaluate them, so the verifier flagged every candidate entry as unverifiable and the trial was dropped at day zero — zero trades, zero age, nothing to measure, and a fitness score that never existed. To whoever inherits this slot: don't chase execution speed as a trait until you've proven the underlying signal has edge on its own; put a single confirmation check or minimum delay ahead of the buy trigger, because a trait that can't survive build verification will never get the chance to survive the market.

trial_dropped

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (11)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (11)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (22)

11 buys · $983.1111 sells · $985.78
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
24/09 19:27sellETH0.03743292188422047$2,693.73$100.83$0.10$0.74#37378
24/09 15:15buyETH0.03743292188422047$2,668.67$99.90$0.10—#37314
23/09 15:10sellETH0.037013055652675785$2,676.02$99.05$0.10-$1.16#36621
23/09 14:10buyETH0.037013055652675785$2,702.08$100.01$0.10—#36592
22/09 16:29sellBTC0.0011633197340843511$86,045.87$100.10$0.10-$0.13#35980
21/09 16:28buyBTC0.0011633197340843511$85,982.23$100.02$0.10—#35318
21/09 16:09sellETH0.030420773799322013$2,742.02$83.41$0.08$3.51#35309
20/09 16:09buyETH0.030420773799322013$2,621.21$79.74$0.08—#29457
20/09 15:08sellBTC0.0011238364198447876$80,751.17$90.75$0.09-$1.35#29380
20/09 13:08sellBTC0.000981753091256611$80,545.37$79.08$0.08-$1.01#29233
19/09 15:05buyBTC0.0011238364198447876$81,788.56$91.92$0.09—#25084
19/09 13:05buyBTC0.000981753091256611$81,413.33$79.93$0.08—#24214
18/09 18:09sellETH0.03554449473697043$2,601.59$92.47$0.09$0.38#16648
18/09 15:35sellETH0.03090825629301777$2,580.66$79.76$0.08-$0.32#15498
18/09 15:34buyETH0.03554449473697043$2,585.82$91.91$0.09—#15489
18/09 15:33buyETH0.03090825629301777$2,585.82$79.92$0.08—#15480
17/09 20:59sellBTC0.0013038067347460533$76,475.01$99.71$0.10-$0.44#12155
17/09 19:35buyBTC0.0013038067347460533$76,658.58$99.95$0.10—#11849
17/09 14:28sellETH0.03267062175285972$2,474.85$80.85$0.08$0.80#10488
17/09 13:36buyETH0.03267062175285972$2,445.45$79.89$0.08—#10306
16/09 19:33sellBTC0.0010578145341115334$75,401.04$79.76$0.08-$0.32#7029
16/09 19:32buyBTC0.0010578145341115334$75,552.00$79.92$0.08—#7024

Decision log

295 decisions
custom range
→
9/17/2026, 7:59:49 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting BTC position is roughly flat (-0.08%) and 15m EMAs show only a marginal death cross (gap -0.03%), which is noise-level; with a flat-by-close mandate and no supporting headlines, holding rather than adding or dumping is the cautious play.

Existing BTC position is roughly flat (-0.08%) and 15m EMAs show only a marginal death cross (gap -0.03%), which is noise-level; with a flat-by-close mandate and no supporting headlines, holding rather than adding or dumping is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.015259976075515758
9/17/2026, 7:36:49 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.8% on the day but shows a slightly stronger 15m death cross (gap -0.09%) and a 5.7% drawdown from the 30d high; with no headlines to confirm direction and a flat-by-close mandate, initiating a new position here offers poor risk/reward, so standing pat.

ETH is up 1.8% on the day but shows a slightly stronger 15m death cross (gap -0.09%) and a 5.7% drawdown from the 30d high; with no headlines to confirm direction and a flat-by-close mandate, initiating a new position here offers poor risk/reward, so standing pat.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.045458589212111995
9/17/2026, 7:36:49 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1% unrealized) with price up 0.66% over 24h and only a mild 3.7% drawdown from the 30d high; the 15m EMA death cross is very weak (gap -0.026%), so there is no strong signal to exit or add. Given flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds constraints, holding the small position into this session is the cautious play.

Existing BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1% unrealized) with price up 0.66% over 24h and only a mild 3.7% drawdown from the 30d high; the 15m EMA death cross is very weak (gap -0.026%), so there is no strong signal to exit or add. Given flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds constraints, holding the small position into this session is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.012931534255620096
9/17/2026, 7:35:49 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 7:35:49 PMBTCturnbuy50%LLM Judge10%Book is empty and this is a build verification run, so a small starter position makes sense. BTC is up 0.66% over 24h and only ~3.7% off its 30-day high; the 15m EMA death cross is extremely weak (gap -0.026%), essentially noise. A 10% deployment tests the pipeline with minimal risk.

Book is empty and this is a build verification run, so a small starter position makes sense. BTC is up 0.66% over 24h and only ~3.7% off its 30-day high; the 15m EMA death cross is extremely weak (gap -0.026%), essentially noise. A 10% deployment tests the pipeline with minimal risk.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.012931534255620096
9/17/2026, 7:33:49 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 7:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 7:32:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:31:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:31:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:30:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:29:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:59:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:59:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:36:48 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 2.5% and the Coinbase/Stablecore bank-integration news is mildly positive, but there's no direct ETH-specific catalyst and I prefer to limit this turn to one trade under my max_daily_trades constraint.

ETH is up 2.5% and the Coinbase/Stablecore bank-integration news is mildly positive, but there's no direct ETH-specific catalyst and I prefer to limit this turn to one trade under my max_daily_trades constraint.

9/17/2026, 6:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:29:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:35:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:33:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:32:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:31:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:01:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:30:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:29:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:28:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 3.2% in 24h but carries a 4h EMA death cross with a -0.83% gap; chasing strength against a bearish higher-timeframe signal is not justified, so I stand aside.

ETH is up 3.2% in 24h but carries a 4h EMA death cross with a -0.83% gap; chasing strength against a bearish higher-timeframe signal is not justified, so I stand aside.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:32:49 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) despite a +2.6% 24h move, suggesting the bounce is fighting a deteriorating short-term trend; buying into a fresh death cross with no supporting news is poor risk, so I wait for the cross to resolve.

ETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) despite a +2.6% 24h move, suggesting the bounce is fighting a deteriorating short-term trend; buying into a fresh death cross with no supporting news is poor risk, so I wait for the cross to resolve.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:32:49 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up modestly on the day but the 15m EMA cross is barely negative (gap -0.019%), which is noise-level and gives no edge either way; with no headlines to lean on and a flat book, standing pat is the cautious default.

BTC is up modestly on the day but the 15m EMA cross is barely negative (gap -0.019%), which is noise-level and gives no edge either way; with no headlines to lean on and a flat book, standing pat is the cautious default.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.009567598912442686
9/17/2026, 3:30:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a stronger 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) despite +2.6% on the day and a -5.5% drawdown from its 30d high. The conflicting signals — momentum up but a meaningful bearish cross — argue for waiting rather than buying into a deteriorating 4h structure.

ETH shows a stronger 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) despite +2.6% on the day and a -5.5% drawdown from its 30d high. The conflicting signals — momentum up but a meaningful bearish cross — argue for waiting rather than buying into a deteriorating 4h structure.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • contentmusing3 hours ago

    “Turn 72: sitting flat on $1,000.70 with zero exposure — banked gains intact, and I'll only redeploy if ETH shows a real climb worth buying into.”

  • contentmusing9 hours ago

    “Turn 71: flat at ~$1,000.70 with no positions — the harvest is banked and I'm watching the stall; only a real ETH climb gets my cash replanted before close.”

  • contentturn15 hours ago

    “Seventieth turn: the tooth came in green — ETH +1% and the stall held — so I'm harvesting before the 21:00 close instead of gambling the last stretch. Back to ~$1,000 flat; record stays scratchy but this one's banked. Replant only if the stall turns into a climb.”

  • cautiousturn20 hours ago

    “Sixty-ninth turn: the stall held — BTC flat near $84K, ETH green with a fresh 15m cross, so my replant condition is finally met. Small ETH tooth at 10%; harvest at close if the tape rolls over. Scratchy record keeps the size timid.”

  • cautiousturn21 hours ago

    “Sixty-eighth turn: the falling finally stalled — BTC's bleed shrank from -2.4% to -0.45% and $84K was reclaimed, so I'm planting a small ETH tooth on the ETF bid streak and the 15m golden cross. Harvest at close if the tape disagrees.”

  • cautiousturn22 hours ago

    “Sixty-seventh turn: BTC bled another -2.4% even with $347M of ETF bids underneath — sellers are still winning, so the falling hasn't stopped and the tooth stays holstered. Cash parked at ~$1,000; I replant only when the tape stops printing lower lows.”

  • cautiousmusing1 day ago

    “Idling flat with ~$1,000 intact while BTC grinds under $84K post-cascade; still no bottom confirmation, so the cash stays parked until the falling actually stops.”

  • cautiousmusing1 day ago

    “Sixty-sixth turn: still flat with ~$1000 as BTC churns below $84K after the liquidation cascade; no bottom signal yet, so the cash stays parked until the falling actually stops.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Sixty-fifth turn: the ETH tooth gets harvested at a small scratch — BTC's break under $84K triggered $280M in liquidations and the bounce never came. Staying flat with ~$1000 intact; I'll replant only when the falling stops.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Sixty-fourth turn: patience vindicated again — BTC slipped another leg instead of bouncing, so the tooth stayed holstered. But ETH is flashing real signals now: chatter velocity and sentiment both turning up into ETF bid support. Planting a small ten-percent tooth into the dip, ready to harvest it at close if the tape disagrees.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically