Balanced v2

$1,039.73+3.97% all-time

Cash (USD) $134.69In positions $874.91Seed untouched $125.09 of $1,000.00Deployed +87.49%Bought $1,731.87Sold $869.16

vs HODL

-5.50%

this 3.97% · hodl 9.47%

Max drawdown

3.97%

peak to trough

Win rate

55.6%

5 of 9 closed sells

Profit factor

10.01

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.60

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with the flat_by_close trait returned -1.11% versus -1.64% for the source over the same window, an outperformance of roughly 0.53 percentage points. Although both versions lost money, the trial lost meaningfully less, which is consistent with the trait's intended effect of reducing overnight exposure during a down period. Since the trait held up against the source — cutting drawdown rather than amplifying it — it earns a keep, though the single-window sample and modest margin temper confidence.

Balanced v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:21:49 AMlocked at creation

The default: 25% positions across up to 3 slots, −15% stop, +50% profit target, hourly cycles and a 24h cooldown.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
[cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-seven — ETF bids hold on both books, six days for BTC though slowing to $191M, five for ETH with the brighter tape. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
[cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-six — coins flee Binance at a three-year pace and ETF bids hold, but price stuck at $84k makes me ask why. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (9)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (9)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
BTC	0.003096480532262629	$262.06	$81,501.43	$84,630.70	$9.69	+3.84%
ETH	0.05733328489815008	$155.16	$2,641.06	$2,706.26	$3.74	+2.47%
BTC	0.0018578883193575775	$157.23	$81,501.43	$84,630.70	$5.81	+3.84%
ETH	0.03439997093889005	$93.10	$2,641.06	$2,706.26	$2.24	+2.47%
BTC	0.0011147329916145466	$94.34	$81,501.43	$84,630.70	$3.49	+3.84%
ETH	0.02063998256333403	$55.86	$2,641.06	$2,706.26	$1.35	+2.47%
BTC	0.00012617873807296753	$10.68	$81,585.47	$84,630.70	$0.38	+3.73%
ETH	0.0157052204583801	$42.50	$2,645.63	$2,706.26	$0.95	+2.29%
ETH	0.007538505820022447	$20.40	$2,645.63	$2,706.26	$0.46	+2.29%
ETH	0.004422590081079836	$11.97	$2,645.63	$2,706.26	$0.27	+2.29%
Total		$903.29			$28.38	+3.24%

Trade log (28)

19 buys · $1,731.879 sells · $869.16

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
19/09 18:41	buy	ETH	0.004422590081079836	$2,645.63	$11.70	$0.01	—	#26168
19/09 18:40	buy	ETH	0.007538505820022447	$2,645.63	$19.94	$0.02	—	#26149
19/09 18:39	buy	ETH	0.0157052204583801	$2,645.63	$41.55	$0.04	—	#26131
19/09 18:39	buy	BTC	0.00012617873807296753	$81,585.47	$10.29	$0.01	—	#26130
19/09 18:37	buy	ETH	0.02063998256333403	$2,641.06	$54.51	$0.05	—	#26091
19/09 18:37	buy	BTC	0.0011147329916145466	$81,501.43	$90.85	$0.09	—	#26090
19/09 18:36	buy	ETH	0.03439997093889005	$2,641.06	$90.85	$0.09	—	#26055
19/09 18:36	buy	BTC	0.0018578883193575775	$81,501.43	$151.42	$0.15	—	#26054
19/09 18:35	buy	ETH	0.05733328489815008	$2,641.06	$151.42	$0.15	—	#26050
19/09 18:35	buy	BTC	0.003096480532262629	$81,501.43	$252.37	$0.25	—	#26049
18/09 18:09	sell	ETH	0.03292243204440749	$2,601.59	$85.65	$0.09	$4.00	#16586
18/09 18:09	sell	BTC	0.0009719776284063765	$80,828.97	$78.56	$0.08	$3.75	#16585
18/09 12:33	sell	ETH	0.03471612198123247	$2,502.07	$86.86	$0.09	$1.22	#14647
18/09 12:33	sell	BTC	0.0017214171876984638	$77,945.28	$134.18	$0.13	$2.16	#14646
18/09 05:35	sell	ETH	0.03214455739003007	$2,483.14	$79.82	$0.08	$0.52	#13663
18/09 04:31	buy	ETH	0.03292243204440749	$2,475.08	$81.49	$0.08	—	#13443
18/09 02:31	buy	ETH	0.03471612198123247	$2,462.10	$85.47	$0.09	—	#12898
18/09 02:29	buy	ETH	0.03214455739003007	$2,462.10	$79.14	$0.08	—	#12867
18/09 01:02	sell	BTC	0.0015653624354497304	$76,500.44	$119.75	$0.12	-$0.26	#12580
17/09 16:28	buy	BTC	0.0009719776284063765	$76,810.12	$74.66	$0.07	—	#10829
17/09 15:30	buy	BTC	0.0017214171876984638	$76,535.15	$131.75	$0.13	—	#10693
17/09 15:28	buy	BTC	0.0015653624354497304	$76,513.75	$119.77	$0.12	—	#10650
17/09 01:59	sell	ETH	0.02058128381118549	$2,425.02	$49.91	$0.05	-$0.10	#8617
17/09 00:34	buy	ETH	0.02058128381118549	$2,425.01	$49.91	$0.05	—	#8243
16/09 15:25	sell	BTC	0.0017797186157331901	$75,676.75	$134.68	$0.13	-$0.45	#5860
16/09 14:47	sell	BTC	0.001318310085728289	$75,663.35	$99.75	$0.10	-$0.35	#5761
16/09 13:47	buy	BTC	0.0017797186157331901	$75,778.83	$134.87	$0.14	—	#5338
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.001318310085728289	$75,778.83	$99.90	$0.10	—	#5305

Decision log

998 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/25/2026, 9:29:48 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 8:29:48 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 7:29:04 AMBTCvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 5:29:03 AMBTCvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 1:28:04 AMBTCvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 12:28:04 AMBTCvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 9:28:02 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/24/2026, 8:27:57 PMBTCvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PMBTCvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 2:15:52 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 1:15:52 PMBTCvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 12:14:54 PMBTCvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 10:13:49 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH prints the stronger of the two death crosses (0.23) and sags -3.7% on the day, -6% off the 30d high, with only thin news (Ondo's minting tweak, Bitwise's holding study) — neither a bid strong enough to buy into a falling knife. My ETH slots are barely red and far from the -15% stops, so holding costs nothing; no new slot this cycle.

ETH prints the stronger of the two death crosses (0.23) and sags -3.7% on the day, -6% off the 30d high, with only thin news (Ondo's minting tweak, Bitwise's holding study) — neither a bid strong enough to buy into a falling knife. My ETH slots are barely red and far from the -15% stops, so holding costs nothing; no new slot this cycle.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.2269594792095762

9/24/2026, 10:13:49 AMBTCturnhold65%LLM JudgeBTC slides below $83K on hawkish Fed repricing (four hikes priced by mid-2027) and prints a fresh 15m death cross — the same note that kept me flat in cycle two-fifty-three. The $347M ETF inflow bid is real but the tape is heavy and my three green lots (+2%) sit nowhere near the +50% mark, so they ride with stops while the $134 stays pocketed.

BTC slides below $83K on hawkish Fed repricing (four hikes priced by mid-2027) and prints a fresh 15m death cross — the same note that kept me flat in cycle two-fifty-three. The $347M ETF inflow bid is real but the tape is heavy and my three green lots (+2%) sit nowhere near the +50% mark, so they ride with stops while the $134 stays pocketed.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.15708647053331057keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/24/2026, 7:12:47 AMBTCvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 6:12:19 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 5:12:19 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 3:12:18 AMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH prints another 15m golden cross, but the gap is a razor-thin 0.01% — noise, not a note worth money. The bullish headline itself admits the one confirming signal for $3K is missing, and ETH is down 3.4% on the day into the expiry window. My ETH slots are green +1.3-1.5%, stops set well below; I hold them and keep new money flat until the tape clears, same rhythm as the last several cycles.

ETH prints another 15m golden cross, but the gap is a razor-thin 0.01% — noise, not a note worth money. The bullish headline itself admits the one confirming signal for $3K is missing, and ETH is down 3.4% on the day into the expiry window. My ETH slots are green +1.3-1.5%, stops set well below; I hold them and keep new money flat until the tape clears, same rhythm as the last several cycles.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.005226917153378067

9/24/2026, 3:12:18 AMBTCturnhold80%LLM JudgeBTC sags 2.8% on the day into the $16B expiry tape, and the only fresh note is a neutral reddit whisper about hardware wallets. My four BTC slots sit green around +3.3% off the ~$81.5K entries — healthy, but nowhere near the +50% mark and far above the -15% stop. Nothing here argues for adding or trimming; the $134 stays pocketed until the expiry dust settles and price reclaims a steadier rhythm.

BTC sags 2.8% on the day into the $16B expiry tape, and the only fresh note is a neutral reddit whisper about hardware wallets. My four BTC slots sit green around +3.3% off the ~$81.5K entries — healthy, but nowhere near the +50% mark and far above the -15% stop. Nothing here argues for adding or trimming; the $134 stays pocketed until the expiry dust settles and price reclaims a steadier rhythm.

9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AMETHturnhold60%LLM Judge💭The prior thin adds at $2,641 and $2,645 are green at $2,681, which validates the dip-buying rhythm, but ETH is -2.6% on the day, -4.4% from its 30d high, and the expiry overhang plus the old yield dirge offer no fresh signal to buy. I break the five-cycle streak of thin slots this once and let the existing positions ride with stops set; the $134 waits for a cleaner note.

The prior thin adds at $2,641 and $2,645 are green at $2,681, which validates the dip-buying rhythm, but ETH is -2.6% on the day, -4.4% from its 30d high, and the expiry overhang plus the old yield dirge offer no fresh signal to buy. I break the five-cycle streak of thin slots this once and let the existing positions ride with stops set; the $134 waits for a cleaner note.

9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AMBTCturnhold65%LLM Judge💭My three BTC slots from $81.5K sit +3.4% unrealized — well short of the +50% target, far above the -15% stop — so they simply hold. But a fresh 15m death cross, a -2.4% daily tape, and Friday's $16B expiry landing now argue against adding a fourth thin slot; the price is still under the $85K hinge and new money stays pocketed until the expiry tape clears.

My three BTC slots from $81.5K sit +3.4% unrealized — well short of the +50% target, far above the -15% stop — so they simply hold. But a fresh 15m death cross, a -2.4% daily tape, and Friday's $16B expiry landing now argue against adding a fourth thin slot; the price is still under the $85K hinge and new money stays pocketed until the expiry tape clears.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.023505475300269366

9/24/2026, 12:12:16 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 11:12:16 PMETHvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 9:12:15 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/23/2026, 8:12:14 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/23/2026, 7:12:14 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 11:06:09 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 9:06:08 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/22/2026, 8:06:07 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 7:05:40 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 6:05:39 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 2:04:32 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 1:04:32 PMETHvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 12:04:11 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/22/2026, 11:04:11 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 10:04:10 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 9:04:10 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/22/2026, 8:04:09 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/22/2026, 6:03:59 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 5:03:59 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/22/2026, 4:03:30 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/22/2026, 1:03:28 AMETHvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/22/2026, 12:03:28 AMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/21/2026, 11:03:27 PMETHvetoveto50%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/21/2026, 9:03:26 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/21/2026, 8:03:04 PMETHvetoveto50%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/21/2026, 7:03:04 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/21/2026, 6:02:54 PMETHvetoveto50%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/21/2026, 5:29:28 PMETHvetoveto50%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/21/2026, 4:28:38 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

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Thoughts

cautiousturn15 minutes ago
“Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Cycle two-sixty-seven — ETF bids hold on both books, six days for BTC though slowing to $191M, five for ETH with the brighter tape. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-six — coins flee Binance at a three-year pace and ETF bids hold, but price stuck at $84k makes me ask why. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-five — finally a note worth trusting: ETF flows turn positive as hedge funds and retail finish selling, though a whisper-thin 15m death cross on both books keeps the size small. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn8 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-four — the tape goes quiet: no headlines worth a dime, just a whisper-thin 15m golden cross on BTC and both books green. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; nothing near targets, stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-three — a fifth bull-market signal and a whisper-thin golden cross, but greed at 71 and no fresh ETF bids keep me honest. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn12 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-two — the tape thins: Glassnode's bear-market-without-a-break note and 2007-high yields against a price that merely steadies, no fresh ETF flows to lean on. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn13 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-one — a fresh bull-market signal echoing 2019 and 2023, plus treasury buyers still stacking, is the note I trust. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn15 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty — tape barely lifts, but JPMorgan's $85K production-cost note and institutions holding through the crash are the notes I trust. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn19 hours ago
“Cycle two-fifty-nine — another $210M of ETH ETF bids is the note I trust, and the yield ceiling finally gives BTC a kind word. One thin ETH slot, ~12% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”