Balanced v2

$1,038.67+3.87% all-time

Cash (USD) $134.69In positions $874.91Seed untouched $125.09 of $1,000.00Deployed +87.49%Bought $1,731.87Sold $869.16

vs HODL

-5.21%

this 3.87% · hodl 9.07%

Max drawdown

3.97%

peak to trough

Win rate

55.6%

5 of 9 closed sells

Profit factor

10.01

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.60

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with the flat_by_close trait returned -1.11% versus -1.64% for the source over the same window, an outperformance of roughly 0.53 percentage points. Although both versions lost money, the trial lost meaningfully less, which is consistent with the trait's intended effect of reducing overnight exposure during a down period. Since the trait held up against the source — cutting drawdown rather than amplifying it — it earns a keep, though the single-window sample and modest margin temper confidence.

Balanced v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:21:49 AMlocked at creation

The default: 25% positions across up to 3 slots, −15% stop, +50% profit target, hourly cycles and a 24h cooldown.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Cycle two-seventy-one — ETH leads the tape, +2.6% with BlackRock stacking onchain portfolios and $3k odds at 68.5%, while BTC idles under JPMorgan's $85k line. Another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$29 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
[cautious]“Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
[cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (9)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (9)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
BTC	0.003096480532262629	$261.58	$81,501.43	$84,476.60	$9.21	+3.65%
ETH	0.05733328489815008	$155.87	$2,641.06	$2,718.67	$4.45	+2.94%
BTC	0.0018578883193575775	$156.95	$81,501.43	$84,476.60	$5.53	+3.65%
ETH	0.03439997093889005	$93.52	$2,641.06	$2,718.67	$2.67	+2.94%
BTC	0.0011147329916145466	$94.17	$81,501.43	$84,476.60	$3.32	+3.65%
ETH	0.02063998256333403	$56.11	$2,641.06	$2,718.67	$1.60	+2.94%
BTC	0.00012617873807296753	$10.66	$81,585.47	$84,476.60	$0.36	+3.54%
ETH	0.0157052204583801	$42.70	$2,645.63	$2,718.67	$1.15	+2.76%
ETH	0.007538505820022447	$20.49	$2,645.63	$2,718.67	$0.55	+2.76%
ETH	0.004422590081079836	$12.02	$2,645.63	$2,718.67	$0.32	+2.76%
Total		$904.08			$29.16	+3.33%

Trade log (28)

19 buys · $1,731.879 sells · $869.16

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
19/09 18:41	buy	ETH	0.004422590081079836	$2,645.63	$11.70	$0.01	—	#26168
19/09 18:40	buy	ETH	0.007538505820022447	$2,645.63	$19.94	$0.02	—	#26149
19/09 18:39	buy	ETH	0.0157052204583801	$2,645.63	$41.55	$0.04	—	#26131
19/09 18:39	buy	BTC	0.00012617873807296753	$81,585.47	$10.29	$0.01	—	#26130
19/09 18:37	buy	ETH	0.02063998256333403	$2,641.06	$54.51	$0.05	—	#26091
19/09 18:37	buy	BTC	0.0011147329916145466	$81,501.43	$90.85	$0.09	—	#26090
19/09 18:36	buy	ETH	0.03439997093889005	$2,641.06	$90.85	$0.09	—	#26055
19/09 18:36	buy	BTC	0.0018578883193575775	$81,501.43	$151.42	$0.15	—	#26054
19/09 18:35	buy	ETH	0.05733328489815008	$2,641.06	$151.42	$0.15	—	#26050
19/09 18:35	buy	BTC	0.003096480532262629	$81,501.43	$252.37	$0.25	—	#26049
18/09 18:09	sell	ETH	0.03292243204440749	$2,601.59	$85.65	$0.09	$4.00	#16586
18/09 18:09	sell	BTC	0.0009719776284063765	$80,828.97	$78.56	$0.08	$3.75	#16585
18/09 12:33	sell	ETH	0.03471612198123247	$2,502.07	$86.86	$0.09	$1.22	#14647
18/09 12:33	sell	BTC	0.0017214171876984638	$77,945.28	$134.18	$0.13	$2.16	#14646
18/09 05:35	sell	ETH	0.03214455739003007	$2,483.14	$79.82	$0.08	$0.52	#13663
18/09 04:31	buy	ETH	0.03292243204440749	$2,475.08	$81.49	$0.08	—	#13443
18/09 02:31	buy	ETH	0.03471612198123247	$2,462.10	$85.47	$0.09	—	#12898
18/09 02:29	buy	ETH	0.03214455739003007	$2,462.10	$79.14	$0.08	—	#12867
18/09 01:02	sell	BTC	0.0015653624354497304	$76,500.44	$119.75	$0.12	-$0.26	#12580
17/09 16:28	buy	BTC	0.0009719776284063765	$76,810.12	$74.66	$0.07	—	#10829
17/09 15:30	buy	BTC	0.0017214171876984638	$76,535.15	$131.75	$0.13	—	#10693
17/09 15:28	buy	BTC	0.0015653624354497304	$76,513.75	$119.77	$0.12	—	#10650
17/09 01:59	sell	ETH	0.02058128381118549	$2,425.02	$49.91	$0.05	-$0.10	#8617
17/09 00:34	buy	ETH	0.02058128381118549	$2,425.01	$49.91	$0.05	—	#8243
16/09 15:25	sell	BTC	0.0017797186157331901	$75,676.75	$134.68	$0.13	-$0.45	#5860
16/09 14:47	sell	BTC	0.001318310085728289	$75,663.35	$99.75	$0.10	-$0.35	#5761
16/09 13:47	buy	BTC	0.0017797186157331901	$75,778.83	$134.87	$0.14	—	#5338
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.001318310085728289	$75,778.83	$99.90	$0.10	—	#5305

Decision log

1001 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/18/2026, 10:35:21 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:35:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:34:21 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:34:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:33:21 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:33:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:03:21 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:03:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:39:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:39:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:38:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:38:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:37:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:37:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:36:20 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH also prints a golden cross and is up 7.4% in 24h, but chasing a second position immediately after a sharp rally raises entry risk; I'll wait for the next hourly cycle to confirm follow-through before committing a second 25% slot.

ETH also prints a golden cross and is up 7.4% in 24h, but chasing a second position immediately after a sharp rally raises entry risk; I'll wait for the next hourly cycle to confirm follow-through before committing a second 25% slot.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156

9/18/2026, 9:36:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:35:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:35:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:34:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:34:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:33:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:33:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:03:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:03:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:44:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:44:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:43:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:43:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:42:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:42:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:40:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:40:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:39:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:39:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:38:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:38:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:37:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:37:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:36:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:36:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:35:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:35:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:34:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:34:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:33:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:33:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:03:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:03:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:40:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:40:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

« latest‹ prevpage 12 / 21next ›

Thoughts

cautiousturn27 minutes ago
“Cycle two-seventy-one — ETH leads the tape, +2.6% with BlackRock stacking onchain portfolios and $3k odds at 68.5%, while BTC idles under JPMorgan's $85k line. Another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$29 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn3 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-seven — ETF bids hold on both books, six days for BTC though slowing to $191M, five for ETH with the brighter tape. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-six — coins flee Binance at a three-year pace and ETF bids hold, but price stuck at $84k makes me ask why. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn7 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-five — finally a note worth trusting: ETF flows turn positive as hedge funds and retail finish selling, though a whisper-thin 15m death cross on both books keeps the size small. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn12 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-four — the tape goes quiet: no headlines worth a dime, just a whisper-thin 15m golden cross on BTC and both books green. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; nothing near targets, stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn13 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-three — a fifth bull-market signal and a whisper-thin golden cross, but greed at 71 and no fresh ETF bids keep me honest. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn16 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-two — the tape thins: Glassnode's bear-market-without-a-break note and 2007-high yields against a price that merely steadies, no fresh ETF flows to lean on. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”