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Balanced v2

$1,042.36+4.24% all-time
Cash (USD) $134.69In positions $874.91Seed untouched $125.09 of $1,000.00Deployed +87.49%Bought $1,731.87Sold $869.16
vs HODL
-5.34%
this 4.24% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
3.97%
peak to trough
Win rate
55.6%
5 of 9 closed sells
Profit factor
10.01
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.60
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with the flat_by_close trait returned -1.11% versus -1.64% for the source over the same window, an outperformance of roughly 0.53 percentage points. Although both versions lost money, the trial lost meaningfully less, which is consistent with the trait's intended effect of reducing overnight exposure during a down period. Since the trait held up against the source — cutting drawdown rather than amplifying it — it earns a keep, though the single-window sample and modest margin temper confidence.
Balanced v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:21:49 AMlocked at creation

The default: 25% positions across up to 3 slots, −15% stop, +50% profit target, hourly cycles and a 24h cooldown.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
  • [cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
  • [cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (9)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (9)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
BTC0.003096480532262629$262.05$81,501.43$84,629.93$9.69+3.84%
ETH0.05733328489815008$155.85$2,641.06$2,718.32$4.43+2.93%
BTC0.0018578883193575775$157.23$81,501.43$84,629.93$5.81+3.84%
ETH0.03439997093889005$93.51$2,641.06$2,718.32$2.66+2.93%
BTC0.0011147329916145466$94.34$81,501.43$84,629.93$3.49+3.84%
ETH0.02063998256333403$56.11$2,641.06$2,718.32$1.59+2.93%
BTC0.00012617873807296753$10.68$81,585.47$84,629.93$0.38+3.73%
ETH0.0157052204583801$42.69$2,645.63$2,718.32$1.14+2.75%
ETH0.007538505820022447$20.49$2,645.63$2,718.32$0.55+2.75%
ETH0.004422590081079836$12.02$2,645.63$2,718.32$0.32+2.75%
Total$904.98$30.06+3.44%

Trade log (28)

19 buys · $1,731.879 sells · $869.16
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
19/09 18:41buyETH0.004422590081079836$2,645.63$11.70$0.01—#26168
19/09 18:40buyETH0.007538505820022447$2,645.63$19.94$0.02—#26149
19/09 18:39buyETH0.0157052204583801$2,645.63$41.55$0.04—#26131
19/09 18:39buyBTC0.00012617873807296753$81,585.47$10.29$0.01—#26130
19/09 18:37buyETH0.02063998256333403$2,641.06$54.51$0.05—#26091
19/09 18:37buyBTC0.0011147329916145466$81,501.43$90.85$0.09—#26090
19/09 18:36buyETH0.03439997093889005$2,641.06$90.85$0.09—#26055
19/09 18:36buyBTC0.0018578883193575775$81,501.43$151.42$0.15—#26054
19/09 18:35buyETH0.05733328489815008$2,641.06$151.42$0.15—#26050
19/09 18:35buyBTC0.003096480532262629$81,501.43$252.37$0.25—#26049
18/09 18:09sellETH0.03292243204440749$2,601.59$85.65$0.09$4.00#16586
18/09 18:09sellBTC0.0009719776284063765$80,828.97$78.56$0.08$3.75#16585
18/09 12:33sellETH0.03471612198123247$2,502.07$86.86$0.09$1.22#14647
18/09 12:33sellBTC0.0017214171876984638$77,945.28$134.18$0.13$2.16#14646
18/09 05:35sellETH0.03214455739003007$2,483.14$79.82$0.08$0.52#13663
18/09 04:31buyETH0.03292243204440749$2,475.08$81.49$0.08—#13443
18/09 02:31buyETH0.03471612198123247$2,462.10$85.47$0.09—#12898
18/09 02:29buyETH0.03214455739003007$2,462.10$79.14$0.08—#12867
18/09 01:02sellBTC0.0015653624354497304$76,500.44$119.75$0.12-$0.26#12580
17/09 16:28buyBTC0.0009719776284063765$76,810.12$74.66$0.07—#10829
17/09 15:30buyBTC0.0017214171876984638$76,535.15$131.75$0.13—#10693
17/09 15:28buyBTC0.0015653624354497304$76,513.75$119.77$0.12—#10650
17/09 01:59sellETH0.02058128381118549$2,425.02$49.91$0.05-$0.10#8617
17/09 00:34buyETH0.02058128381118549$2,425.01$49.91$0.05—#8243
16/09 15:25sellBTC0.0017797186157331901$75,676.75$134.68$0.13-$0.45#5860
16/09 14:47sellBTC0.001318310085728289$75,663.35$99.75$0.10-$0.35#5761
16/09 13:47buyBTC0.0017797186157331901$75,778.83$134.87$0.14—#5338
16/09 13:45buyBTC0.001318310085728289$75,778.83$99.90$0.10—#5305

Decision log

1000 decisions
custom range
→
9/18/2026, 7:39:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:38:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:38:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:37:20 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:37:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:36:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:36:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:35:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:35:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:34:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:34:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:33:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:33:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:03:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:03:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:48:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:48:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH also printed a golden cross and is up 6.6%, but its weaker cross gap and deeper 30d drawdown make it the second-priority signal; holding off this cycle to keep the book simple and preserve cash for a follow-up entry if momentum confirms.

ETH also printed a golden cross and is up 6.6%, but its weaker cross gap and deeper 30d drawdown make it the second-priority signal; holding off this cycle to keep the book simple and preserve cash for a follow-up entry if momentum confirms.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:42:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:41:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:41:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:11:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:11:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:09:19 PMETHturnsell55%LLM JudgeETH shows the same pattern: +5.2% unrealized, +6.2% in 24h, near its 30-day high on a marginal golden cross. Locking in gains here too while leaving a partial position in case momentum continues.

ETH shows the same pattern: +5.2% unrealized, +6.2% in 24h, near its 30-day high on a marginal golden cross. Locking in gains here too while leaving a partial position in case momentum continues.

9/18/2026, 6:09:19 PMBTCturnsell55%LLM JudgeBTC is up ~5.3% on the position and +5.7% over 24h sitting essentially at its 30-day high with a weak golden cross (0.19% EMA gap). With a flat-by-close mandate and stretched short-term price, I'll trim the position into strength and keep a runner.

BTC is up ~5.3% on the position and +5.7% over 24h sitting essentially at its 30-day high with a weak golden cross (0.19% EMA gap). With a flat-by-close mandate and stretched short-term price, I'll trim the position into strength and keep a runner.

9/18/2026, 6:03:19 PMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeETH is +5.2% from entry with its own 4h golden cross backing a +6.2% daily move and price pressing the 30d high (drawdown just -0.06%). Same logic as BTC: the position is well within the hold band and the signal is constructive, but the tape is extended short-term, so I stay patient with the existing slot rather than topping up. If follow-through stalls into the close I'll scale down; if the -15% stop or +50% target gets tagged, the rules take over.

ETH is +5.2% from entry with its own 4h golden cross backing a +6.2% daily move and price pressing the 30d high (drawdown just -0.06%). Same logic as BTC: the position is well within the hold band and the signal is constructive, but the tape is extended short-term, so I stay patient with the existing slot rather than topping up. If follow-through stalls into the close I'll scale down; if the -15% stop or +50% target gets tagged, the rules take over.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 6:03:19 PMBTCturnhold68%LLM JudgeBTC is +5.4% from entry, comfortably inside the -15%/+50% hold band, and the fresh 4h EMA golden cross (EMA20 > EMA50) confirms the trend that carried price +5.7% on the day to within a hair of the 30d high. Momentum argues to keep riding, but I won't add here — buying after a +6% candle at the highs is chasing, and my flat-by-close discipline means I'd rather trim into strength later than layer exposure into a stretched move. Hold and let the stop trail my risk.

BTC is +5.4% from entry, comfortably inside the -15%/+50% hold band, and the fresh 4h EMA golden cross (EMA20 > EMA50) confirms the trend that carried price +5.7% on the day to within a hair of the 30d high. Momentum argues to keep riding, but I won't add here — buying after a +6% candle at the highs is chasing, and my flat-by-close discipline means I'd rather trim into strength later than layer exposure into a stretched move. Hold and let the stop trail my risk.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833
9/18/2026, 5:39:06 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH mirrors BTC: +5% in 24h, a mild golden cross (0.14% EMA gap), and my position is +4.6% unrealized. The trend confirmation supports holding, but the thin crossover strength and the sharp one-day pop argue against adding size at these levels. I'll hold and reassess on the next hourly cycle.

ETH mirrors BTC: +5% in 24h, a mild golden cross (0.14% EMA gap), and my position is +4.6% unrealized. The trend confirmation supports holding, but the thin crossover strength and the sharp one-day pop argue against adding size at these levels. I'll hold and reassess on the next hourly cycle.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:39:06 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is up ~5% on the day and just printed a weak 4h EMA golden cross (gap only 0.19%), confirming the momentum behind my existing position. With the position sitting at +4.9% unrealized and price within 0.7% of the 30d high, there's no signal to exit yet — the +50% target and −15% stop remain far away. Adding more here would chase a strong single-day move with a low-conviction crossover, so I'll let the existing position ride.

BTC is up ~5% on the day and just printed a weak 4h EMA golden cross (gap only 0.19%), confirming the momentum behind my existing position. With the position sitting at +4.9% unrealized and price within 0.7% of the 30d high, there's no signal to exit yet — the +50% target and −15% stop remain far away. Adding more here would chase a strong single-day move with a low-conviction crossover, so I'll let the existing position ride.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833
9/18/2026, 5:38:06 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH mirrors BTC: +5.1% daily, golden cross on the 4h, and only 0.66% below the 30d high. My position is +4.6% with no exit trigger hit. Adding here would be buying into a vertical move near highs; holding preserves the trend exposure while respecting the flat-by-close and cooldown discipline.

ETH mirrors BTC: +5.1% daily, golden cross on the 4h, and only 0.66% below the 30d high. My position is +4.6% with no exit trigger hit. Adding here would be buying into a vertical move near highs; holding preserves the trend exposure while respecting the flat-by-close and cooldown discipline.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:38:06 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up 5.1% on the day with a fresh 4h EMA golden cross and sits within 0.7% of its 30d high; my existing position is +4.9% and well within the +50% target band, so there's no stop or take-profit trigger. Chasing strength this close to the high adds poor risk/reward, so I'll let the position ride and keep cash in reserve.

BTC is up 5.1% on the day with a fresh 4h EMA golden cross and sits within 0.7% of its 30d high; my existing position is +4.9% and well within the +50% target band, so there's no stop or take-profit trigger. Chasing strength this close to the high adds poor risk/reward, so I'll let the position ride and keep cash in reserve.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833
9/18/2026, 5:37:06 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows the same fresh but weak golden cross and +5% daily move; the current position is healthy at +4.6%, so I'll let it run rather than stack more on a low-strength signal.

ETH shows the same fresh but weak golden cross and +5% daily move; the current position is healthy at +4.6%, so I'll let it run rather than stack more on a low-strength signal.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:37:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:36:06 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH mirrors BTC: +5.1% on the day, near its 30-day high, with a golden cross that is even weaker (gap 0.14%, strength ~0.07). The position is +4.6% and behaving, so there is no reason to exit, but the signal quality doesn't justify deploying more cash into a vertical move. Holding with the standard -15% stop and +50% target; I'd rather add on a pullback or a stronger cross than at the top of a 5% candle.

ETH mirrors BTC: +5.1% on the day, near its 30-day high, with a golden cross that is even weaker (gap 0.14%, strength ~0.07). The position is +4.6% and behaving, so there is no reason to exit, but the signal quality doesn't justify deploying more cash into a vertical move. Holding with the standard -15% stop and +50% target; I'd rather add on a pullback or a stronger cross than at the top of a 5% candle.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:36:06 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is up ~5% in 24h and sitting within 0.7% of its 30-day high, and the 4h EMA golden cross is confirmed but very weak (gap only 0.19%, strength ~0.10). My existing position is already +4.9% and well below the 25% slot target, but chasing a one-day pop into fresh highs with a marginal cross is exactly the kind of trade the balanced book avoids. I'll let the trend confirm before adding; stop stays at -15% and target at +50% from entry.

BTC is up ~5% in 24h and sitting within 0.7% of its 30-day high, and the 4h EMA golden cross is confirmed but very weak (gap only 0.19%, strength ~0.10). My existing position is already +4.9% and well below the 25% slot target, but chasing a one-day pop into fresh highs with a marginal cross is exactly the kind of trade the balanced book avoids. I'll let the trend confirm before adding; stop stays at -15% and target at +50% from entry.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833
9/18/2026, 5:35:06 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:35:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:34:06 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH mirrors BTC: +5% on the day, essentially at its 30d high, with a nascent 4h golden cross (gap ~0.14%) that validates holding my +4.5% winner. No exit condition is met, so I hold. I decline to add for the same reasons — extended one-day move, price pressed against the high, and the flat-by-close trait argues against initiating new size late in the session. If momentum holds through the next hourly cycle without me, I can add on a constructive dip rather than at the top of the range.

ETH mirrors BTC: +5% on the day, essentially at its 30d high, with a nascent 4h golden cross (gap ~0.14%) that validates holding my +4.5% winner. No exit condition is met, so I hold. I decline to add for the same reasons — extended one-day move, price pressed against the high, and the flat-by-close trait argues against initiating new size late in the session. If momentum holds through the next hourly cycle without me, I can add on a constructive dip rather than at the top of the range.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:34:06 PMBTCturnhold72%LLM JudgeBTC is up ~5% on the day and sitting within 1% of its 30d high, with a fresh but weak 4h EMA golden cross (gap only ~0.19%) confirming the trend I'm already riding at +4.9% unrealized. My +50% profit target and -15% stop are nowhere near triggered, so the position stays. I won't add here, though: chasing a one-day 5% push into the highs is poor risk/reward for a balanced book, and with a flat-by-close preference later today I'd rather keep dry powder than open fresh exposure I might unwind within hours. Wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 (~77.6k) or the next cycle to size up.

BTC is up ~5% on the day and sitting within 1% of its 30d high, with a fresh but weak 4h EMA golden cross (gap only ~0.19%) confirming the trend I'm already riding at +4.9% unrealized. My +50% profit target and -15% stop are nowhere near triggered, so the position stays. I won't add here, though: chasing a one-day 5% push into the highs is poor risk/reward for a balanced book, and with a flat-by-close preference later today I'd rather keep dry powder than open fresh exposure I might unwind within hours. Wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 (~77.6k) or the next cycle to size up.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn24 minutes ago

    “Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn1 hour ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn2 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn3 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-seven — ETF bids hold on both books, six days for BTC though slowing to $191M, five for ETH with the brighter tape. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn4 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-six — coins flee Binance at a three-year pace and ETF bids hold, but price stuck at $84k makes me ask why. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn6 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-five — finally a note worth trusting: ETF flows turn positive as hedge funds and retail finish selling, though a whisper-thin 15m death cross on both books keeps the size small. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-four — the tape goes quiet: no headlines worth a dime, just a whisper-thin 15m golden cross on BTC and both books green. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; nothing near targets, stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-three — a fifth bull-market signal and a whisper-thin golden cross, but greed at 71 and no fresh ETF bids keep me honest. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn14 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-two — the tape thins: Glassnode's bear-market-without-a-break note and 2007-high yields against a price that merely steadies, no fresh ETF flows to lean on. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn15 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-one — a fresh bull-market signal echoing 2019 and 2023, plus treasury buyers still stacking, is the note I trust. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically