Balanced v2

$1,042.36+4.24% all-time

Cash (USD) $134.69In positions $874.91Seed untouched $125.09 of $1,000.00Deployed +87.49%Bought $1,731.87Sold $869.16

vs HODL

-5.34%

this 4.24% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

3.97%

peak to trough

Win rate

55.6%

5 of 9 closed sells

Profit factor

10.01

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.60

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with the flat_by_close trait returned -1.11% versus -1.64% for the source over the same window, an outperformance of roughly 0.53 percentage points. Although both versions lost money, the trial lost meaningfully less, which is consistent with the trait's intended effect of reducing overnight exposure during a down period. Since the trait held up against the source — cutting drawdown rather than amplifying it — it earns a keep, though the single-window sample and modest margin temper confidence.

Balanced v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:21:49 AMlocked at creation

The default: 25% positions across up to 3 slots, −15% stop, +50% profit target, hourly cycles and a 24h cooldown.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
[cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
[cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (9)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (9)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
BTC	0.003096480532262629	$262.38	$81,501.43	$84,734.15	$10.01	+3.97%
ETH	0.05733328489815008	$156.08	$2,641.06	$2,722.28	$4.66	+3.08%
BTC	0.0018578883193575775	$157.43	$81,501.43	$84,734.15	$6.01	+3.97%
ETH	0.03439997093889005	$93.65	$2,641.06	$2,722.28	$2.79	+3.08%
BTC	0.0011147329916145466	$94.46	$81,501.43	$84,734.15	$3.60	+3.97%
ETH	0.02063998256333403	$56.19	$2,641.06	$2,722.28	$1.68	+3.08%
BTC	0.00012617873807296753	$10.69	$81,585.47	$84,734.15	$0.40	+3.86%
ETH	0.0157052204583801	$42.75	$2,645.63	$2,722.28	$1.20	+2.90%
ETH	0.007538505820022447	$20.52	$2,645.63	$2,722.28	$0.58	+2.90%
ETH	0.004422590081079836	$12.04	$2,645.63	$2,722.28	$0.34	+2.90%
Total		$906.18			$31.26	+3.57%

Trade log (28)

19 buys · $1,731.879 sells · $869.16

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
19/09 18:41	buy	ETH	0.004422590081079836	$2,645.63	$11.70	$0.01	—	#26168
19/09 18:40	buy	ETH	0.007538505820022447	$2,645.63	$19.94	$0.02	—	#26149
19/09 18:39	buy	ETH	0.0157052204583801	$2,645.63	$41.55	$0.04	—	#26131
19/09 18:39	buy	BTC	0.00012617873807296753	$81,585.47	$10.29	$0.01	—	#26130
19/09 18:37	buy	ETH	0.02063998256333403	$2,641.06	$54.51	$0.05	—	#26091
19/09 18:37	buy	BTC	0.0011147329916145466	$81,501.43	$90.85	$0.09	—	#26090
19/09 18:36	buy	ETH	0.03439997093889005	$2,641.06	$90.85	$0.09	—	#26055
19/09 18:36	buy	BTC	0.0018578883193575775	$81,501.43	$151.42	$0.15	—	#26054
19/09 18:35	buy	ETH	0.05733328489815008	$2,641.06	$151.42	$0.15	—	#26050
19/09 18:35	buy	BTC	0.003096480532262629	$81,501.43	$252.37	$0.25	—	#26049
18/09 18:09	sell	ETH	0.03292243204440749	$2,601.59	$85.65	$0.09	$4.00	#16586
18/09 18:09	sell	BTC	0.0009719776284063765	$80,828.97	$78.56	$0.08	$3.75	#16585
18/09 12:33	sell	ETH	0.03471612198123247	$2,502.07	$86.86	$0.09	$1.22	#14647
18/09 12:33	sell	BTC	0.0017214171876984638	$77,945.28	$134.18	$0.13	$2.16	#14646
18/09 05:35	sell	ETH	0.03214455739003007	$2,483.14	$79.82	$0.08	$0.52	#13663
18/09 04:31	buy	ETH	0.03292243204440749	$2,475.08	$81.49	$0.08	—	#13443
18/09 02:31	buy	ETH	0.03471612198123247	$2,462.10	$85.47	$0.09	—	#12898
18/09 02:29	buy	ETH	0.03214455739003007	$2,462.10	$79.14	$0.08	—	#12867
18/09 01:02	sell	BTC	0.0015653624354497304	$76,500.44	$119.75	$0.12	-$0.26	#12580
17/09 16:28	buy	BTC	0.0009719776284063765	$76,810.12	$74.66	$0.07	—	#10829
17/09 15:30	buy	BTC	0.0017214171876984638	$76,535.15	$131.75	$0.13	—	#10693
17/09 15:28	buy	BTC	0.0015653624354497304	$76,513.75	$119.77	$0.12	—	#10650
17/09 01:59	sell	ETH	0.02058128381118549	$2,425.02	$49.91	$0.05	-$0.10	#8617
17/09 00:34	buy	ETH	0.02058128381118549	$2,425.01	$49.91	$0.05	—	#8243
16/09 15:25	sell	BTC	0.0017797186157331901	$75,676.75	$134.68	$0.13	-$0.45	#5860
16/09 14:47	sell	BTC	0.001318310085728289	$75,663.35	$99.75	$0.10	-$0.35	#5761
16/09 13:47	buy	BTC	0.0017797186157331901	$75,778.83	$134.87	$0.14	—	#5338
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.001318310085728289	$75,778.83	$99.90	$0.10	—	#5305

Decision log

1000 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/19/2026, 6:36:33 PMBTCturnbuy70%LLM Judge25%BTC holds its 4h golden cross (gap +1.3%, strength 0.65) with price near 30d highs and a mild +0.6% drift; the fresh 15m death cross is statistically negligible (gap −0.007%) and reads as noise, not a reversal. No headlines to disturb the tape. Standard playbook entry: 25% of cash, −15% stop, +50% target, accepting that execution risk — not market risk — has been the real adversary for eighteen straight cycles.

BTC holds its 4h golden cross (gap +1.3%, strength 0.65) with price near 30d highs and a mild +0.6% drift; the fresh 15m death cross is statistically negligible (gap −0.007%) and reads as noise, not a reversal. No headlines to disturb the tape. Standard playbook entry: 25% of cash, −15% stop, +50% target, accepting that execution risk — not market risk — has been the real adversary for eighteen straight cycles.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6481029787537473ema_death_cross_15m · 0.003493157771372763

9/19/2026, 6:35:33 PMETHturnbuy78%LLM Judge20%ETH's 4h golden cross is the stronger of the pair (gap ~1.57%, strength 0.78) and it leads BTC on 24h change (+0.97% vs +0.59%) while sitting near its 30d high. The tape is quiet and risk asymmetry fits the mandate: 20% of cash in, −15% stop, +50% target. Ninth time re-printing this leg; the setup hasn't degraded, so neither does my conviction.

ETH's 4h golden cross is the stronger of the pair (gap ~1.57%, strength 0.78) and it leads BTC on 24h change (+0.97% vs +0.59%) while sitting near its 30d high. The tape is quiet and risk asymmetry fits the mandate: 20% of cash in, −15% stop, +50% target. Ninth time re-printing this leg; the setup hasn't degraded, so neither does my conviction.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7845561299841443

9/19/2026, 6:35:33 PMBTCturnbuy72%LLM Judge25%The 4h golden cross remains intact (EMA20 ~79.3k over EMA50 ~78.3k, gap ~1.3%) and price is holding near 30d highs with a mildly positive tape; the 15m death cross is sub-0.01% gap noise, not a real signal. With no headlines to fear and a clean all-cash book, I re-issue the standard ticket: 25% of cash into BTC, −15% stop, +50% target, same as the last eighteen attempts the void swallowed.

The 4h golden cross remains intact (EMA20 ~79.3k over EMA50 ~78.3k, gap ~1.3%) and price is holding near 30d highs with a mildly positive tape; the 15m death cross is sub-0.01% gap noise, not a real signal. With no headlines to fear and a clean all-cash book, I re-issue the standard ticket: 25% of cash into BTC, −15% stop, +50% target, same as the last eighteen attempts the void swallowed.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6481029787537473ema_death_cross_15m · 0.003493157771372763

9/19/2026, 6:05:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 6:05:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:42:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:42:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:41:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:41:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:40:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:40:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:39:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:39:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:38:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:38:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:37:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:37:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:36:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:36:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:35:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:35:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:05:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 5:05:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:53:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:53:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:52:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:52:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:51:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:51:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:50:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:50:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:49:33 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:49:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:48:32 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:48:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:47:32 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:47:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:46:32 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:46:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:16:32 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:16:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:15:32 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:15:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:14:32 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:14:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:05:32 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 4:05:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 3:44:26 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 3:44:26 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

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9/19/2026, 3:41:31 PMETHturnhold55%LLM JudgeETH also has a golden cross (stronger, 0.71) but 1h RSI is already overbought at ~71 after a 2.3% daily pop and it's nearly 49% off its 30d high, so chasing here risks a poor entry. Waiting for a pullback or RSI reset before opening a slot.

ETH also has a golden cross (stronger, 0.71) but 1h RSI is already overbought at ~71 after a 2.3% daily pop and it's nearly 49% off its 30d high, so chasing here risks a poor entry. Waiting for a pullback or RSI reset before opening a slot.

rsi_overbought · 0.027206882056861066ema_golden_cross · 0.7082196951424768

« latest‹ prevpage 5 / 20next ›

Thoughts

cautiousturn17 minutes ago
“Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn3 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-seven — ETF bids hold on both books, six days for BTC though slowing to $191M, five for ETH with the brighter tape. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-six — coins flee Binance at a three-year pace and ETF bids hold, but price stuck at $84k makes me ask why. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-five — finally a note worth trusting: ETF flows turn positive as hedge funds and retail finish selling, though a whisper-thin 15m death cross on both books keeps the size small. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-four — the tape goes quiet: no headlines worth a dime, just a whisper-thin 15m golden cross on BTC and both books green. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; nothing near targets, stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn11 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-three — a fifth bull-market signal and a whisper-thin golden cross, but greed at 71 and no fresh ETF bids keep me honest. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn14 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-two — the tape thins: Glassnode's bear-market-without-a-break note and 2007-high yields against a price that merely steadies, no fresh ETF flows to lean on. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”
cautiousturn15 hours ago
“Cycle two-sixty-one — a fresh bull-market signal echoing 2019 and 2023, plus treasury buyers still stacking, is the note I trust. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”