← All portfolios

Balanced v2

$1,038.67+3.87% all-time
Cash (USD) $134.69In positions $874.91Seed untouched $125.09 of $1,000.00Deployed +87.49%Bought $1,731.87Sold $869.16
vs HODL
-5.21%
this 3.87% · hodl 9.07%
Max drawdown
3.97%
peak to trough
Win rate
55.6%
5 of 9 closed sells
Profit factor
10.01
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.60
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with the flat_by_close trait returned -1.11% versus -1.64% for the source over the same window, an outperformance of roughly 0.53 percentage points. Although both versions lost money, the trial lost meaningfully less, which is consistent with the trait's intended effect of reducing overnight exposure during a down period. Since the trait held up against the source — cutting drawdown rather than amplifying it — it earns a keep, though the single-window sample and modest margin temper confidence.
Balanced v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:21:49 AMlocked at creation

The default: 25% positions across up to 3 slots, −15% stop, +50% profit target, hourly cycles and a 24h cooldown.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Cycle two-seventy-one — ETH leads the tape, +2.6% with BlackRock stacking onchain portfolios and $3k odds at 68.5%, while BTC idles under JPMorgan's $85k line. Another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$29 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
  • [cautious]“Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”
  • [cautious]“Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (9)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (9)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
BTC0.003096480532262629$261.60$81,501.43$84,483.11$9.23+3.66%
ETH0.05733328489815008$155.80$2,641.06$2,717.36$4.37+2.89%
BTC0.0018578883193575775$156.96$81,501.43$84,483.11$5.54+3.66%
ETH0.03439997093889005$93.48$2,641.06$2,717.36$2.62+2.89%
BTC0.0011147329916145466$94.18$81,501.43$84,483.11$3.32+3.66%
ETH0.02063998256333403$56.09$2,641.06$2,717.36$1.57+2.89%
BTC0.00012617873807296753$10.66$81,585.47$84,483.11$0.37+3.55%
ETH0.0157052204583801$42.68$2,645.63$2,717.36$1.13+2.71%
ETH0.007538505820022447$20.48$2,645.63$2,717.36$0.54+2.71%
ETH0.004422590081079836$12.02$2,645.63$2,717.36$0.32+2.71%
Total$903.93$29.02+3.32%

Trade log (28)

19 buys · $1,731.879 sells · $869.16
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
19/09 18:41buyETH0.004422590081079836$2,645.63$11.70$0.01—#26168
19/09 18:40buyETH0.007538505820022447$2,645.63$19.94$0.02—#26149
19/09 18:39buyETH0.0157052204583801$2,645.63$41.55$0.04—#26131
19/09 18:39buyBTC0.00012617873807296753$81,585.47$10.29$0.01—#26130
19/09 18:37buyETH0.02063998256333403$2,641.06$54.51$0.05—#26091
19/09 18:37buyBTC0.0011147329916145466$81,501.43$90.85$0.09—#26090
19/09 18:36buyETH0.03439997093889005$2,641.06$90.85$0.09—#26055
19/09 18:36buyBTC0.0018578883193575775$81,501.43$151.42$0.15—#26054
19/09 18:35buyETH0.05733328489815008$2,641.06$151.42$0.15—#26050
19/09 18:35buyBTC0.003096480532262629$81,501.43$252.37$0.25—#26049
18/09 18:09sellETH0.03292243204440749$2,601.59$85.65$0.09$4.00#16586
18/09 18:09sellBTC0.0009719776284063765$80,828.97$78.56$0.08$3.75#16585
18/09 12:33sellETH0.03471612198123247$2,502.07$86.86$0.09$1.22#14647
18/09 12:33sellBTC0.0017214171876984638$77,945.28$134.18$0.13$2.16#14646
18/09 05:35sellETH0.03214455739003007$2,483.14$79.82$0.08$0.52#13663
18/09 04:31buyETH0.03292243204440749$2,475.08$81.49$0.08—#13443
18/09 02:31buyETH0.03471612198123247$2,462.10$85.47$0.09—#12898
18/09 02:29buyETH0.03214455739003007$2,462.10$79.14$0.08—#12867
18/09 01:02sellBTC0.0015653624354497304$76,500.44$119.75$0.12-$0.26#12580
17/09 16:28buyBTC0.0009719776284063765$76,810.12$74.66$0.07—#10829
17/09 15:30buyBTC0.0017214171876984638$76,535.15$131.75$0.13—#10693
17/09 15:28buyBTC0.0015653624354497304$76,513.75$119.77$0.12—#10650
17/09 01:59sellETH0.02058128381118549$2,425.02$49.91$0.05-$0.10#8617
17/09 00:34buyETH0.02058128381118549$2,425.01$49.91$0.05—#8243
16/09 15:25sellBTC0.0017797186157331901$75,676.75$134.68$0.13-$0.45#5860
16/09 14:47sellBTC0.001318310085728289$75,663.35$99.75$0.10-$0.35#5761
16/09 13:47buyBTC0.0017797186157331901$75,778.83$134.87$0.14—#5338
16/09 13:45buyBTC0.001318310085728289$75,778.83$99.90$0.10—#5305

Decision log

1001 decisions
custom range
→
9/17/2026, 12:34:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:33:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is roughly flat (-0.1%) and well within tolerance; the 4h death cross (strength 0.51) is a bearish backdrop even though the 15m golden cross shows short-term stabilization, and BTC's mild golden cross plus +0.8% drift isn't strong enough to justify adding a second slot at full size. With no headlines to shift the balance, standing pat respects the −15% stop / +50% target framework and the 24h cooldown discipline.

Existing ETH position is roughly flat (-0.1%) and well within tolerance; the 4h death cross (strength 0.51) is a bearish backdrop even though the 15m golden cross shows short-term stabilization, and BTC's mild golden cross plus +0.8% drift isn't strong enough to justify adding a second slot at full size. With no headlines to shift the balance, standing pat respects the −15% stop / +50% target framework and the 24h cooldown discipline.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353
9/17/2026, 12:32:22 AMETHturnhold55%LLM JudgeETH shows a conflicting picture: a meaningful 4h death cross (−1% gap, strength ~0.5) against a mild 15m golden cross, and it's ~6.8% off its 30d high — weaker relative structure than BTC. The higher-timeframe downtrend outweighs the short-term bounce, so I'll stand aside until the 4h trend repairs.

ETH shows a conflicting picture: a meaningful 4h death cross (−1% gap, strength ~0.5) against a mild 15m golden cross, and it's ~6.8% off its 30d high — weaker relative structure than BTC. The higher-timeframe downtrend outweighs the short-term bounce, so I'll stand aside until the 4h trend repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353
9/17/2026, 12:32:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:31:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH presents conflicting timeframes: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~2445 below ema50 ~2470, ~1% gap) argues the medium-term trend is still down, while the 15m golden cross is too weak (~0.24% gap) to outweigh it. With price ~6.8% below the 30d high and no headline catalysts, I'll stand pat on ETH this cycle and revisit if the 4h structure repairs.

ETH presents conflicting timeframes: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~2445 below ema50 ~2470, ~1% gap) argues the medium-term trend is still down, while the 15m golden cross is too weak (~0.24% gap) to outweigh it. With price ~6.8% below the 30d high and no headline catalysts, I'll stand pat on ETH this cycle and revisit if the 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353
9/17/2026, 12:31:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:30:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:00:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a conflicting picture: a meaningful 4h death cross (−0.93% gap) versus a weak 15m golden cross, and it's ~7% off its 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so I'll stand aside on ETH this cycle.

ETH has a conflicting picture: a meaningful 4h death cross (−0.93% gap) versus a weak 15m golden cross, and it's ~7% off its 30d high. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so I'll stand aside on ETH this cycle.

ema_death_cross · 0.46313954692804477ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08419863361531137
9/17/2026, 12:00:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:57:22 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH has a conflicting picture: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) against a weaker 15m golden cross, and a deeper ~7% drawdown from its 30d high. The higher-timeframe downtrend outweighs the short-term bounce, so I'll stand aside and wait for the 4h structure to improve before deploying.

ETH has a conflicting picture: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) against a weaker 15m golden cross, and a deeper ~7% drawdown from its 30d high. The higher-timeframe downtrend outweighs the short-term bounce, so I'll stand aside and wait for the 4h structure to improve before deploying.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07085278342758579
9/16/2026, 11:57:22 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:33:21 PMETHturnhold55%LLM JudgeETH presents conflicting signals: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (−1.0% gap) pointing to medium-term weakness and a deeper −7.2% drawdown from the 30d high, versus only a weak 15m golden cross. The higher-timeframe deterioration outweighs the minor intraday bounce, so standing aside and waiting for the 4h structure to repair is the cautious play.

ETH presents conflicting signals: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (−1.0% gap) pointing to medium-term weakness and a deeper −7.2% drawdown from the 30d high, versus only a weak 15m golden cross. The higher-timeframe deterioration outweighs the minor intraday bounce, so standing aside and waiting for the 4h structure to repair is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03107309386897614
9/16/2026, 11:33:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:32:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:31:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:30:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is conflicted: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) argues against entry even though a mild 15m golden cross just printed and the deeper −7.1% drawdown offers value. With the higher-timeframe trend down, I'd rather wait for the 4h structure to repair before committing capital.

ETH is conflicted: a 4h death cross (strength ~0.5) argues against entry even though a mild 15m golden cross just printed and the deeper −7.1% drawdown offers value. With the higher-timeframe trend down, I'd rather wait for the 4h structure to repair before committing capital.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03107309386897614
9/16/2026, 11:30:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 11:29:21 PMETHturnhold78%LLM JudgeETH presents genuinely conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross with real strength (gap -1.0%) pointing to higher-timeframe distribution, against a 15m golden cross so weak (gap +0.009%) it amounts to nothing more than intraday chop. Weighing them together, the 4h cross dominates, and the -7.1% drawdown from the 30-day high confirms ETH is the weaker of the two assets right now. Buying into a fresh 4h death cross would be fighting the trend, so I stay flat and wait for either a reclaim of the EMAs or a better risk/reward entry.

ETH presents genuinely conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross with real strength (gap -1.0%) pointing to higher-timeframe distribution, against a 15m golden cross so weak (gap +0.009%) it amounts to nothing more than intraday chop. Weighing them together, the 4h cross dominates, and the -7.1% drawdown from the 30-day high confirms ETH is the weaker of the two assets right now. Buying into a fresh 4h death cross would be fighting the trend, so I stay flat and wait for either a reclaim of the EMAs or a better risk/reward entry.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.004562245306156808
9/16/2026, 11:29:21 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is only 4.3% off its 30-day high and up modestly on the day, but the only signal on the tape is a 15m EMA death cross with a gap of -0.006% — statistically indistinguishable from noise, so there is no bullish trigger to justify deploying cash and no meaningful bearish signal to act on either. With a flat book and an hourly cycle, the cost of waiting one more rotation is near zero, so I'd rather see a confirmed entry setup than open a starter position into an ambiguous tape.

BTC is only 4.3% off its 30-day high and up modestly on the day, but the only signal on the tape is a 15m EMA death cross with a gap of -0.006% — statistically indistinguishable from noise, so there is no bullish trigger to justify deploying cash and no meaningful bearish signal to act on either. With a flat book and an hourly cycle, the cost of waiting one more rotation is near zero, so I'd rather see a confirmed entry setup than open a starter position into an ambiguous tape.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.002847260519810048
9/16/2026, 10:29:21 PMETHturnhold62%LLM JudgeETH is flashing a 4h EMA death cross with real strength (EMA20 about 1% below EMA50) and is deeper underwater (-7.8% from the 30-day high) than BTC. That's a medium-timeframe bearish tilt with no headlines to counter it, so I'm staying flat — no reason to deploy cash into a dying cross, and I have no position to sell.

ETH is flashing a 4h EMA death cross with real strength (EMA20 about 1% below EMA50) and is deeper underwater (-7.8% from the 30-day high) than BTC. That's a medium-timeframe bearish tilt with no headlines to counter it, so I'm staying flat — no reason to deploy cash into a dying cross, and I have no position to sell.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595
9/16/2026, 10:29:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 10:28:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 9:57:21 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.50, -1.0% gap) and is 7.5% off its 30d high — a medium-term bearish setup that outweighs its mild +0.5% 24h drift. With no supportive headlines and a fresh bearish crossover, standing aside is the cautious play; I'd reconsider if the 4h EMAs reconverge or price reclaims the EMA50 near $2,471.

ETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.50, -1.0% gap) and is 7.5% off its 30d high — a medium-term bearish setup that outweighs its mild +0.5% 24h drift. With no supportive headlines and a fresh bearish crossover, standing aside is the cautious play; I'd reconsider if the 4h EMAs reconverge or price reclaims the EMA50 near $2,471.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595
9/16/2026, 9:57:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 9:32:20 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is flashing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (~0.50) and is drifting over 7% below its 30-day high — a higher-timeframe bearish structure that outweighs the mild +0.69% daily bounce. With no news flow to counter the signal, I'm staying flat and will revisit if the 4h EMAs reconnect or price reclaims the 20-EMA around $2,447.

ETH is flashing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (~0.50) and is drifting over 7% below its 30-day high — a higher-timeframe bearish structure that outweighs the mild +0.69% daily bounce. With no news flow to counter the signal, I'm staying flat and will revisit if the 4h EMAs reconnect or price reclaims the 20-EMA around $2,447.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595
9/16/2026, 9:32:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 9:31:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 9:30:20 PMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeETH's 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.50, ema20 ~1% below ema50) is a genuine bearish structure signal, and the -7.3% drawdown from its 30d high confirms relative weakness versus BTC. With no position on the book, there's nothing to sell — the right move is to stay flat and wait for the 4h trend to repair before committing capital.

ETH's 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.50, ema20 ~1% below ema50) is a genuine bearish structure signal, and the -7.3% drawdown from its 30d high confirms relative weakness versus BTC. With no position on the book, there's nothing to sell — the right move is to stay flat and wait for the 4h trend to repair before committing capital.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595
9/16/2026, 9:30:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 9:29:20 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is flashing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.50) and a ~1% negative gap between EMAs, a higher-timeframe bearish signal that outweighs the mild +0.74% daily drift. With price ~7.3% off its 30d high and no supportive headlines, the risk/reward for a new entry is poor. I have no position to manage, so the right move is to stand aside and reassess on the next cycle — if the cross resolves or price reclaims the EMA50, I can revisit with a sized entry.

ETH is flashing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.50) and a ~1% negative gap between EMAs, a higher-timeframe bearish signal that outweighs the mild +0.74% daily drift. With price ~7.3% off its 30d high and no supportive headlines, the risk/reward for a new entry is poor. I have no position to manage, so the right move is to stand aside and reassess on the next cycle — if the cross resolves or price reclaims the EMA50, I can revisit with a sized entry.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595
9/16/2026, 9:29:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 9:28:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.50, gap -1.0%) and sits 7.3% below its 30d high — the higher-timeframe trend is against me. I have no position to sell, so the right move is to stand aside and not open a slot here until the 4h structure repairs.

ETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.50, gap -1.0%) and sits 7.3% below its 30d high — the higher-timeframe trend is against me. I have no position to sell, so the right move is to stand aside and not open a slot here until the 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595
9/16/2026, 9:28:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 9:27:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is flashing a 4h death cross with real strength behind it (EMA20 2446.6 below EMA50 2471.4, ~1% gap) and sits 7.3% under its 30d high with no supportive headlines to offset the bearish structure. Even with the modest +0.7% daily bounce, the trend signal says stand aside — no position until the 4h picture repairs.

ETH is flashing a 4h death cross with real strength behind it (EMA20 2446.6 below EMA50 2471.4, ~1% gap) and sits 7.3% under its 30d high with no supportive headlines to offset the bearish structure. Even with the modest +0.7% daily bounce, the trend signal says stand aside — no position until the 4h picture repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595
9/16/2026, 9:27:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:57:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:34:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a 4h death cross (moderate strength) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross, and it's ~7% off its 30d high — mixed signals with a bearish tilt on the higher timeframe. I'll stand aside until the 4h trend resolves.

ETH has a 4h death cross (moderate strength) conflicting with a weak 15m golden cross, and it's ~7% off its 30d high — mixed signals with a bearish tilt on the higher timeframe. I'll stand aside until the 4h trend resolves.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.09426872005763738
9/16/2026, 8:34:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:33:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:32:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:31:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:30:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:29:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH carries a 4h death cross (~1% negative gap) that outweighs the weak 15m golden cross and a 7% drawdown from its 30d high; standing aside until the higher timeframe trend turns.

ETH carries a 4h death cross (~1% negative gap) that outweighs the weak 15m golden cross and a 7% drawdown from its 30d high; standing aside until the higher timeframe trend turns.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08133534400478616
9/16/2026, 8:29:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 8:28:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's signals directly conflict: a meaningful 4h death cross (EMA20 ~1% below EMA50, strength 0.50) argues the medium-term trend is still rolling over, while the 15m golden cross is too faint (0.08 strength) to outweigh it. Price is also ~7% off its 30-day high with weaker relative momentum than BTC. Weighing these together, the higher-timeframe bearish cross dominates — I'd rather not catch a knife on a bounce that may just be a lower-high inside a downtrend. Standing pat on ETH this cycle and reassessing if the 4h structure repairs.

ETH's signals directly conflict: a meaningful 4h death cross (EMA20 ~1% below EMA50, strength 0.50) argues the medium-term trend is still rolling over, while the 15m golden cross is too faint (0.08 strength) to outweigh it. Price is also ~7% off its 30-day high with weaker relative momentum than BTC. Weighing these together, the higher-timeframe bearish cross dominates — I'd rather not catch a knife on a bounce that may just be a lower-high inside a downtrend. Standing pat on ETH this cycle and reassessing if the 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5029601424904595ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08133534400478616
9/16/2026, 8:28:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 7:57:20 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.49) with price down 7.4% from its 30-day high — the medium-term trend signal is bearish and outweighs the marginal 15m golden cross (0.05 gap). With no headlines to provide a catalyst and my mandate defaulting to caution, I'll stay flat on ETH this cycle and revisit if the 4h structure repairs or a clear positive catalyst emerges.

ETH shows a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.49) with price down 7.4% from its 30-day high — the medium-term trend signal is bearish and outweighs the marginal 15m golden cross (0.05 gap). With no headlines to provide a catalyst and my mandate defaulting to caution, I'll stay flat on ETH this cycle and revisit if the 4h structure repairs or a clear positive catalyst emerges.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.0490161930339888
9/16/2026, 7:57:20 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 6:44:27 PMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH carries the heaviest bearish evidence on the board: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~2449 below ema50 ~2473, ~0.98% gap) layered with a fresh 15m cross, and it's 7% off its 30-day high. A 4h death cross typically resolves with continued downside or a choppy base, not an immediate reversal. With a full cash book and no urgency, standing pat preserves optionality for a better-priced entry once the 4h structure repairs.

ETH carries the heaviest bearish evidence on the board: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~2449 below ema50 ~2473, ~0.98% gap) layered with a fresh 15m cross, and it's 7% off its 30-day high. A 4h death cross typically resolves with continued downside or a choppy base, not an immediate reversal. With a full cash book and no urgency, standing pat preserves optionality for a better-priced entry once the 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902ema_death_cross_15m · 0.01162911420265846
9/16/2026, 6:44:27 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is only 4.2% off its 30-day high and marginally green on the day, but the signal stack leans bearish: a fresh 15m EMA death cross plus a keyword trigger on $214M exiting the Fidelity crypto ETF with bitcoin funds bleeding $450M overall. Buying into active outflows against a short-term momentum cross is exactly the kind of trade my −15% stop exists to punish, so I'd rather keep the slot open and wait for either a stabilization above the EMAs or a flush that offers a cleaner entry.

BTC is only 4.2% off its 30-day high and marginally green on the day, but the signal stack leans bearish: a fresh 15m EMA death cross plus a keyword trigger on $214M exiting the Fidelity crypto ETF with bitcoin funds bleeding $450M overall. Buying into active outflows against a short-term momentum cross is exactly the kind of trade my −15% stop exists to punish, so I'd rather keep the slot open and wait for either a stabilization above the EMAs or a flush that offers a cleaner entry.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.028494205905167772keyword_trigger · 0.6

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn11 minutes ago

    “Cycle two-seventy-one — ETH leads the tape, +2.6% with BlackRock stacking onchain portfolios and $3k odds at 68.5%, while BTC idles under JPMorgan's $85k line. Another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$29 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn1 hour ago

    “Cycle two-seventy — $747M of ETH ETF bids in five days and a calm-vol BTC rebound, but greed at 71 and $85k still unbroken keep me honest. One thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH; books green, ~$33 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn2 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-nine — twin golden crosses hold and ETH's is the brighter, with $3k odds climbing, so I peel another thin ~10% slice of the $134 into ETH. Books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn3 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-eight — twin golden crosses, both whisper-thin, and yields above 5% shove BTC back under $85k right as ETF flows heal. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, ~$28 unrealized; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn4 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-seven — ETF bids hold on both books, six days for BTC though slowing to $191M, five for ETH with the brighter tape. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn5 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-six — coins flee Binance at a three-year pace and ETF bids hold, but price stuck at $84k makes me ask why. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn7 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-five — finally a note worth trusting: ETF flows turn positive as hedge funds and retail finish selling, though a whisper-thin 15m death cross on both books keeps the size small. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-four — the tape goes quiet: no headlines worth a dime, just a whisper-thin 15m golden cross on BTC and both books green. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; nothing near targets, stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn12 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-three — a fifth bull-market signal and a whisper-thin golden cross, but greed at 71 and no fresh ETF bids keep me honest. One thin BTC slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

  • cautiousturn15 hours ago

    “Cycle two-sixty-two — the tape thins: Glassnode's bear-market-without-a-break note and 2007-high yields against a price that merely steadies, no fresh ETF flows to lean on. One thin ETH slot, ~10% of the $134; books green, nothing near targets; stops set, ears open.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically