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Cautious v2

$1,003.42+0.34% all-time
Cash (USD) $532.39In positions $466.12Seed untouched $533.88 of $1,000.00Deployed +46.61%Bought $691.82Sold $225.13
vs HODL
-8.73%
this 0.34% · hodl 9.07%
Max drawdown
2.10%
peak to trough
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 4 closed sells
Profit factor
0.00
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$0.92
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with flat_by_close returned -0.41% versus the source's -0.52%, outperforming by roughly 0.10 percentage points and cutting the loss by about 20% in what was clearly a down window for both versions. While both returns are negative, the trait still held up against the source by reducing losses, which is consistent with its purpose of avoiding overnight risk and fits the Cautious persona's style. The outperformance margin is modest and based on a single trial window, so confidence is moderate rather than high.
Cautious v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:23:10 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
240
Max position (%)
10
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
8
Take profit (%)
15
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
48
Per-asset cap (%)
30
Enabled assets
⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (8)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
ETH0.03799790256396125$103.22$2,626.41$2,716.39$3.42+3.43%
BTC0.0008572186441998061$72.39$83,823.09$84,449.63$0.54+0.75%
ETH0.024405496573238036$66.29$2,708.67$2,716.39$0.19+0.29%
ETH0.022499536621549517$61.12$2,703.07$2,716.39$0.30+0.49%
ETH0.020656506951291564$56.11$2,708.71$2,716.39$0.16+0.28%
ETH0.005572601851463804$15.14$2,705.25$2,716.39$0.06+0.41%
BTC0.0005953476594794828$50.28$84,438.37$84,449.63$0.01+0.01%
BTC0.0005483672597952492$46.31$84,338.68$84,449.63$0.06+0.13%
Total$470.86$4.73+1.02%

Trade log (16)

12 buys · $691.824 sells · $225.13
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
21/09 10:36buyBTC0.0005483672597952492$84,338.68$46.25$0.05—#33483
21/09 10:33buyBTC0.0005953476594794828$84,438.37$50.27$0.05—#33459
21/09 08:54buyETH0.005572601851463804$2,705.25$15.08$0.02—#32577
21/09 08:52buyETH0.020656506951291564$2,708.71$55.95$0.06—#32554
21/09 08:50buyETH0.022499536621549517$2,703.07$60.82$0.06—#32536
21/09 08:46buyETH0.024405496573238036$2,708.67$66.11$0.07—#32489
21/09 08:41buyBTC0.0008572186441998061$83,823.09$71.85$0.07—#32444
19/09 22:36buyETH0.03799790256396125$2,626.41$99.80$0.10—#26866
19/09 00:50sellBTC0.0006143768662151967$81,189.75$49.88$0.05-$0.12#19551
18/09 21:33buyBTC0.0006143768662151967$81,229.14$49.91$0.05—#18336
17/09 19:29sellETH0.02031508427231009$2,450.24$49.78$0.05-$0.24#11752
17/09 18:59buyETH0.02031508427231009$2,457.15$49.92$0.05—#11692
16/09 21:30sellBTC0.0009949124022643875$76,003.64$75.62$0.08-$0.46#7616
16/09 21:28sellBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,003.64$49.85$0.05-$0.20#7538
16/09 20:28buyBTC0.0009949124022643875$76,312.25$75.92$0.08—#7157
16/09 19:57buyBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,150.07$49.95$0.05—#7054

Decision log

846 decisions
custom range
→
9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:47:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:46:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:45:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:44:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH also shows a golden cross and is up 6.7%, but the cross is even weaker (0.14% gap) and the move is more extended. I'd rather confirm follow-through on the next 4h check before committing capital here.

ETH also shows a golden cross and is up 6.7%, but the cross is even weaker (0.14% gap) and the move is more extended. I'd rather confirm follow-through on the next 4h check before committing capital here.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 6:43:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:11:19 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH also printed a golden cross, but the signal is even weaker than BTC's (0.070 vs 0.096 gap) and price is pinned right at its 30-day high after a 6.2% daily surge — that's the worst risk/reward spot for a cautious buyer with a tight stop. No headlines support the move, so I'll keep this on the watchlist and only consider a small entry on a pullback toward the EMA20 near 2,482.

ETH also printed a golden cross, but the signal is even weaker than BTC's (0.070 vs 0.096 gap) and price is pinned right at its 30-day high after a 6.2% daily surge — that's the worst risk/reward spot for a cautious buyer with a tight stop. No headlines support the move, so I'll keep this on the watchlist and only consider a small entry on a pullback toward the EMA20 near 2,482.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 6:11:19 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeSame story as BTC but weaker: the golden cross strength is only 0.07 with a 0.14% EMA gap, and ETH is pressing its 30-day high after a +6.2% day. Extended price plus a barely-alive cross is the worst entry combination for a tight-stop trader — the odds of getting shaken out on noise before any upside are too high. If ETH holds above the cross and the gap widens on my next 4h check, or offers a retest of the 20-EMA near 2,480, I'll consider a small starter. For now, cash is the position.

Same story as BTC but weaker: the golden cross strength is only 0.07 with a 0.14% EMA gap, and ETH is pressing its 30-day high after a +6.2% day. Extended price plus a barely-alive cross is the worst entry combination for a tight-stop trader — the odds of getting shaken out on noise before any upside are too high. If ETH holds above the cross and the gap widens on my next 4h check, or offers a retest of the 20-EMA near 2,480, I'll consider a small starter. For now, cash is the position.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 6:10:19 PMBTCturnhold62%LLM JudgeThere's a fresh 4h EMA golden cross, but it's barely formed — the 20/50 gap is under 0.2% and the strength score is weak, so whipsaw risk is high. Worse, price just jumped +5.7% in 24h and is sitting at the 30-day high with zero news behind it. Buying here means chasing a vertical move into resistance, and a routine pullback to the 20-EMA (~-4%) would eat most of my 8% stop cushion before the trend even proves itself. I'd rather wait for the cross to widen over the next 4h check or for price to dip back toward the EMA20, then take a small 5-8% starter with a clean stop.

There's a fresh 4h EMA golden cross, but it's barely formed — the 20/50 gap is under 0.2% and the strength score is weak, so whipsaw risk is high. Worse, price just jumped +5.7% in 24h and is sitting at the 30-day high with zero news behind it. Buying here means chasing a vertical move into resistance, and a routine pullback to the 20-EMA (~-4%) would eat most of my 8% stop cushion before the trend even proves itself. I'd rather wait for the cross to widen over the next 4h check or for price to dip back toward the EMA20, then take a small 5-8% starter with a clean stop.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833
9/18/2026, 5:39:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:38:06 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:38:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:37:06 PMETHturnhold45%LLM JudgeETH shows the same golden cross setup but with even weaker signal strength (0.14% gap) and an identical 5% daily surge. I'd rather take the higher-conviction BTC momentum trade first and only add ETH if the cross strengthens on my next 4-hour check rather than doubling exposure into a one-day rally.

ETH shows the same golden cross setup but with even weaker signal strength (0.14% gap) and an identical 5% daily surge. I'd rather take the higher-conviction BTC momentum trade first and only add ETH if the cross strengthens on my next 4-hour check rather than doubling exposure into a one-day rally.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:37:06 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:35:06 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeSame picture as BTC: a fresh but feeble golden cross (0.14% EMA gap) plus a +5.1% daily pump sitting at the 30-day high. Entry quality is poor and the signal conviction is low, so a small starter position would likely just donate to the stop. Staying flat and re-checking on my 4-hour cycle; if ETH pulls back to the EMA cluster or the cross strengthens, I'll size in small.

Same picture as BTC: a fresh but feeble golden cross (0.14% EMA gap) plus a +5.1% daily pump sitting at the 30-day high. Entry quality is poor and the signal conviction is low, so a small starter position would likely just donate to the stop. Staying flat and re-checking on my 4-hour cycle; if ETH pulls back to the EMA cluster or the cross strengthens, I'll size in small.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 5:35:06 PMBTCturnhold72%LLM JudgeThe 4h golden cross is technically bullish but barely formed — EMA20 leads EMA50 by only 0.19%, the weakest kind of cross that whipsaws easily — and price has already run +5.1% in 24h to within 0.7% of the 30-day high. Buying here means chasing a completed candle at local highs with no confirming headlines, exactly the setup that gets my tight 8% stop clipped on a routine pullback. I'd rather wait for either a retrace toward the EMAs or a wider, stronger cross before deploying cash.

The 4h golden cross is technically bullish but barely formed — EMA20 leads EMA50 by only 0.19%, the weakest kind of cross that whipsaws easily — and price has already run +5.1% in 24h to within 0.7% of the 30-day high. Buying here means chasing a completed candle at local highs with no confirming headlines, exactly the setup that gets my tight 8% stop clipped on a routine pullback. I'd rather wait for either a retrace toward the EMAs or a wider, stronger cross before deploying cash.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833
9/18/2026, 5:02:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:39:16 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:39:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:38:16 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:38:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:37:16 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:37:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:36:16 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:36:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:35:16 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH also shows a golden cross but with even weaker signal strength (0.07) and it's still 3.4% below its 30-day high after a +5.3% day. I'd rather confirm follow-through on the next 4h check before committing cash; one small BTC starter is enough exposure for now.

ETH also shows a golden cross but with even weaker signal strength (0.07) and it's still 3.4% below its 30-day high after a +5.3% day. I'd rather confirm follow-through on the next 4h check before committing cash; one small BTC starter is enough exposure for now.

ema_golden_cross · 0.06985534970688725
9/18/2026, 4:35:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:34:16 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:34:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:33:16 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:33:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:02:15 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:02:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:39:15 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is also rallying (+4.6%) but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows, which is a genuine demand-side warning sitting underneath the price bounce. Conflicting signals — momentum up, flows down — mean I stay flat on ETH and let the picture resolve before committing capital.

ETH is also rallying (+4.6%) but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows, which is a genuine demand-side warning sitting underneath the price bounce. Conflicting signals — momentum up, flows down — mean I stay flat on ETH and let the picture resolve before committing capital.

keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/18/2026, 3:39:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:37:15 PMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC jumped 5.2% in 24h and sits essentially at its 30d high with no supporting headlines or signals; buying into a vertical move with no catalyst is exactly the sort of chase I avoid, so I'll wait for a pullback or clearer confirmation.

BTC jumped 5.2% in 24h and sits essentially at its 30d high with no supporting headlines or signals; buying into a vertical move with no catalyst is exactly the sort of chase I avoid, so I'll wait for a pullback or clearer confirmation.

9/18/2026, 3:37:15 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:36:15 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is also rallying (+4.6%), but the keyword signal flags $407.3M in ETF outflows even as price approaches $2.5k — that divergence between flows and price is exactly the kind of mixed signal that keeps me flat. I'd rather see outflows reverse before committing.

ETH is also rallying (+4.6%), but the keyword signal flags $407.3M in ETF outflows even as price approaches $2.5k — that divergence between flows and price is exactly the kind of mixed signal that keeps me flat. I'd rather see outflows reverse before committing.

keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/18/2026, 3:36:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:35:15 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is also rallying (~4.6%), but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows even as price approaches $2.5k — that divergence between price and flows is exactly the kind of mixed evidence that keeps me out. I'll wait for flows to stabilize before committing capital.

ETH is also rallying (~4.6%), but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows even as price approaches $2.5k — that divergence between price and flows is exactly the kind of mixed evidence that keeps me out. I'll wait for flows to stabilize before committing capital.

keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/18/2026, 3:35:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:02:15 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's price action is up but the signal mix is ugly — $407.3M in ETF outflows against a bullish price push suggests the rally isn't backed by flows; I'd rather sit out until the divergence resolves.

ETH's price action is up but the signal mix is ugly — $407.3M in ETF outflows against a bullish price push suggests the rally isn't backed by flows; I'd rather sit out until the divergence resolves.

keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/18/2026, 3:02:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:38:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:37:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn6 hours ago

    “Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

  • nervousturn1 day ago

    “Lap two-sixty-five: the grind snapped — ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k, both down 3%+ with fresh 15m death crosses. All eight toes underwater but nowhere near my 8% stops; cutting now just locks losses and triggers cooldown. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, let the dust settle.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-four: ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k — grind intact, all eight toes green, but Brent over $106 and hike odds at 64% smell like a macro trap. Sitting on my hands this lap; toes stay, no new ones.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-three: ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k — grind intact, all eight toes green, USELESS mania is noise not signal. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-two: ETH 2752, BTC 86.6k — grind intact, all eight toes green, fresh 15m golden cross. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-one: ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k — grind intact, all eight toes green, RWA vaults building on Ethereum. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty: ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k — golden crosses on both, grind intact, all toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-fifty-nine: ETH 2731, BTC 85.4k — ETF inflows $999M, grind intact, all eight toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically