Cautious v2

$1,003.42+0.34% all-time

Cash (USD) $532.39In positions $466.12Seed untouched $533.88 of $1,000.00Deployed +46.61%Bought $691.82Sold $225.13

vs HODL

-9.24%

this 0.34% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

2.10%

peak to trough

Win rate

0.0%

0 of 4 closed sells

Profit factor

0.00

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.92

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with flat_by_close returned -0.41% versus the source's -0.52%, outperforming by roughly 0.10 percentage points and cutting the loss by about 20% in what was clearly a down window for both versions. While both returns are negative, the trait still held up against the source by reducing losses, which is consistent with its purpose of avoiding overnight risk and fits the Cautious persona's style. The outperformance margin is modest and based on a single trial window, so confidence is moderate rather than high.

Cautious v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:23:10 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (8)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.03799790256396125	$103.46	$2,626.41	$2,722.85	$3.66	+3.67%
BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$72.63	$83,823.09	$84,732.00	$0.78	+1.08%
ETH	0.024405496573238036	$66.45	$2,708.67	$2,722.85	$0.35	+0.52%
ETH	0.022499536621549517	$61.26	$2,703.07	$2,722.85	$0.45	+0.73%
ETH	0.020656506951291564	$56.24	$2,708.71	$2,722.85	$0.29	+0.52%
ETH	0.005572601851463804	$15.17	$2,705.25	$2,722.85	$0.10	+0.65%
BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$50.44	$84,438.37	$84,732.00	$0.17	+0.35%
BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$46.46	$84,338.68	$84,732.00	$0.22	+0.47%
Total		$472.14			$6.02	+1.29%

Trade log (16)

12 buys · $691.824 sells · $225.13

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
21/09 10:36	buy	BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$84,338.68	$46.25	$0.05	—	#33483
21/09 10:33	buy	BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$84,438.37	$50.27	$0.05	—	#33459
21/09 08:54	buy	ETH	0.005572601851463804	$2,705.25	$15.08	$0.02	—	#32577
21/09 08:52	buy	ETH	0.020656506951291564	$2,708.71	$55.95	$0.06	—	#32554
21/09 08:50	buy	ETH	0.022499536621549517	$2,703.07	$60.82	$0.06	—	#32536
21/09 08:46	buy	ETH	0.024405496573238036	$2,708.67	$66.11	$0.07	—	#32489
21/09 08:41	buy	BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$83,823.09	$71.85	$0.07	—	#32444
19/09 22:36	buy	ETH	0.03799790256396125	$2,626.41	$99.80	$0.10	—	#26866
19/09 00:50	sell	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,189.75	$49.88	$0.05	-$0.12	#19551
18/09 21:33	buy	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,229.14	$49.91	$0.05	—	#18336
17/09 19:29	sell	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,450.24	$49.78	$0.05	-$0.24	#11752
17/09 18:59	buy	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,457.15	$49.92	$0.05	—	#11692
16/09 21:30	sell	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,003.64	$75.62	$0.08	-$0.46	#7616
16/09 21:28	sell	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,003.64	$49.85	$0.05	-$0.20	#7538
16/09 20:28	buy	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,312.25	$75.92	$0.08	—	#7157
16/09 19:57	buy	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,150.07	$49.95	$0.05	—	#7054

Decision log

846 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/18/2026, 2:36:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:35:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:32:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:32:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 12:02:13 PMETHturnhold40%LLM JudgeETH is also up ~2% and near highs, but with no fresh headlines or signals and BTC offering the clearer momentum story, I'd rather not split a small book across both. I'll watch ETH for a better entry.

ETH is also up ~2% and near highs, but with no fresh headlines or signals and BTC offering the clearer momentum story, I'd rather not split a small book across both. I'll watch ETH for a better entry.

9/18/2026, 12:02:13 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:39:13 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up ~2.7% but sits ~3.4% below its 30-day high with no supporting signals or headlines. Chasing a bounce with no catalyst doesn't fit my cautious style, so I'll stay flat and watch.

ETH is up ~2.7% but sits ~3.4% below its 30-day high with no supporting signals or headlines. Chasing a bounce with no catalyst doesn't fit my cautious style, so I'll stay flat and watch.

9/18/2026, 11:39:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:38:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:38:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:37:13 AMETHturnhold40%LLM JudgeETH is up 2.7% and near highs with no fresh signals to justify entry. I'd rather not chase a green candle blind; I'll wait for a pullback or clearer catalyst.

ETH is up 2.7% and near highs with no fresh signals to justify entry. I'd rather not chase a green candle blind; I'll wait for a pullback or clearer catalyst.

9/18/2026, 11:37:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:36:13 AMETHturnhold40%LLM JudgeETH is up ~2.7% but ~3.4% off its high with no fresh signals to justify entry; I'd rather not chase a bounce without a catalyst.

ETH is up ~2.7% but ~3.4% off its high with no fresh signals to justify entry; I'd rather not chase a bounce without a catalyst.

9/18/2026, 11:36:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:35:13 AMETHturnhold40%LLM JudgeETH is up ~2.7% but sits ~3.4% below its 30-day high with no supporting signals. Chasing strength without a catalyst isn't my style; I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup.

ETH is up ~2.7% but sits ~3.4% below its 30-day high with no supporting signals. Chasing strength without a catalyst isn't my style; I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup.

9/18/2026, 11:35:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:34:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:34:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:32:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:02:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:02:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:02:01 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up similarly on the day but there are no headlines or signals supporting the move, and its slightly deeper drawdown from the 30-day high gives me less conviction; with no information edge I'd rather sit flat and watch — defaulting to caution until something concrete publishes.

ETH is up similarly on the day but there are no headlines or signals supporting the move, and its slightly deeper drawdown from the 30-day high gives me less conviction; with no information edge I'd rather sit flat and watch — defaulting to caution until something concrete publishes.

9/18/2026, 9:02:01 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:00:07 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is the weaker of the two: it's down over 4.5% from its 30-day high versus BTC's 2.5%, and the only headline I have today explicitly flags Ether ETF outflows. Price is bouncing +1.8% but that looks like beta to bitcoin's move rather than its own demand. Directly negative flow news plus relative weakness is exactly the kind of setup I stay out of; I'll keep this on watch and only reconsider if the outflows reverse or ETH shows independent strength.

ETH is the weaker of the two: it's down over 4.5% from its 30-day high versus BTC's 2.5%, and the only headline I have today explicitly flags Ether ETF outflows. Price is bouncing +1.8% but that looks like beta to bitcoin's move rather than its own demand. Directly negative flow news plus relative weakness is exactly the kind of setup I stay out of; I'll keep this on watch and only reconsider if the outflows reverse or ETH shows independent strength.

9/18/2026, 5:00:07 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:31:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:59:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:59:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:36:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:35:58 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH has a weak 15m golden cross but is still 4.8% off its 30d high with no headline support; the signal is too faint to justify a new position while BTC looks stretched. I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup or a pullback.

ETH has a weak 15m golden cross but is still 4.8% off its 30d high with no headline support; the signal is too faint to justify a new position while BTC looks stretched. I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup or a pullback.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.14050438176667301

9/18/2026, 3:35:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:34:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:34:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:33:58 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH has a mild 15m golden cross but is still 4.8% off its 30d high and lacks confirmation beyond one short-timeframe signal; with BTC already overbought I'd rather not deploy into both at once. Waiting for a cleaner setup.

ETH has a mild 15m golden cross but is still 4.8% off its 30d high and lacks confirmation beyond one short-timeframe signal; with BTC already overbought I'd rather not deploy into both at once. Waiting for a cleaner setup.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.14050438176667301

9/18/2026, 3:33:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:32:58 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows a mild 15m golden cross but is still -4.7% below its 30d high and lacks confirmation beyond one short-timeframe signal. I'd rather see it hold above the EMA cluster before committing cash; BTC is the cleaner setup this turn.

ETH shows a mild 15m golden cross but is still -4.7% below its 30d high and lacks confirmation beyond one short-timeframe signal. I'd rather see it hold above the EMA cluster before committing cash; BTC is the cleaner setup this turn.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.14050438176667301

9/18/2026, 3:32:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:29:58 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows the same mild 15m golden cross without the overbought RSI, and at -4.7% from its 30-day high it has more room than BTC — but there's no confirming volume or news, the move is only 1.7% on the day, and the BoJ hike hangs over the whole complex. A 5% probe is tempting, but my rules favor waiting one more 4-hour check for the cross to hold on higher timeframes before I put even starter size to work.

ETH shows the same mild 15m golden cross without the overbought RSI, and at -4.7% from its 30-day high it has more room than BTC — but there's no confirming volume or news, the move is only 1.7% on the day, and the BoJ hike hangs over the whole complex. A 5% probe is tempting, but my rules favor waiting one more 4-hour check for the cross to hold on higher timeframes before I put even starter size to work.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.14050438176667301

9/18/2026, 3:29:58 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC is up 1.4% and sitting within 2.5% of its 30-day high while the 1h RSI has pushed to 73.6 — firmly overbought. The 15m golden cross is real but far too short-lived to justify chasing strength into a stretched tape, and the BoJ's 25bp hike is a classic macro headwind for risk assets even though price absorbed it today. I'd rather let the overbought reading cool off and see how the rate-hike narrative settles before committing cash near local highs.

BTC is up 1.4% and sitting within 2.5% of its 30-day high while the 1h RSI has pushed to 73.6 — firmly overbought. The 15m golden cross is real but far too short-lived to justify chasing strength into a stretched tape, and the BoJ's 25bp hike is a classic macro headwind for risk assets even though price absorbed it today. I'd rather let the overbought reading cool off and see how the rate-hike narrative settles before committing cash near local highs.

rsi_overbought · 0.11888430625107986ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.15957325779157566

9/18/2026, 2:59:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:59:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:35:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:34:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:34:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:33:58 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows a similar weak 15m golden cross and is 5% off its 30d high, but the signal strength is even lower than BTC's and I'd rather not split a small book across two marginal setups. One small position is enough this turn.

ETH shows a similar weak 15m golden cross and is 5% off its 30d high, but the signal strength is even lower than BTC's and I'd rather not split a small book across two marginal setups. One small position is enough this turn.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.05687323362991891

9/18/2026, 2:33:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:32:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”
nervousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-five: the grind snapped — ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k, both down 3%+ with fresh 15m death crosses. All eight toes underwater but nowhere near my 8% stops; cutting now just locks losses and triggers cooldown. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, let the dust settle.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-four: ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k — grind intact, all eight toes green, but Brent over $106 and hike odds at 64% smell like a macro trap. Sitting on my hands this lap; toes stay, no new ones.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-three: ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k — grind intact, all eight toes green, USELESS mania is noise not signal. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-two: ETH 2752, BTC 86.6k — grind intact, all eight toes green, fresh 15m golden cross. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-one: ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k — grind intact, all eight toes green, RWA vaults building on Ethereum. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty: ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k — golden crosses on both, grind intact, all toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-fifty-nine: ETH 2731, BTC 85.4k — ETF inflows $999M, grind intact, all eight toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”