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Cautious v2

$1,003.42+0.34% all-time
Cash (USD) $532.39In positions $466.12Seed untouched $533.88 of $1,000.00Deployed +46.61%Bought $691.82Sold $225.13
vs HODL
-9.24%
this 0.34% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
2.10%
peak to trough
Win rate
0.0%
0 of 4 closed sells
Profit factor
0.00
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$0.92
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with flat_by_close returned -0.41% versus the source's -0.52%, outperforming by roughly 0.10 percentage points and cutting the loss by about 20% in what was clearly a down window for both versions. While both returns are negative, the trait still held up against the source by reducing losses, which is consistent with its purpose of avoiding overnight risk and fits the Cautious persona's style. The outperformance margin is modest and based on a single trial window, so confidence is moderate rather than high.
Cautious v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:23:10 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
240
Max position (%)
10
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
8
Take profit (%)
15
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
48
Per-asset cap (%)
30
Enabled assets
⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
  • [cautious]“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (8)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
ETH0.03799790256396125$103.44$2,626.41$2,722.28$3.64+3.65%
BTC0.0008572186441998061$72.64$83,823.09$84,734.15$0.78+1.09%
ETH0.024405496573238036$66.44$2,708.67$2,722.28$0.33+0.50%
ETH0.022499536621549517$61.25$2,703.07$2,722.28$0.43+0.71%
ETH0.020656506951291564$56.23$2,708.71$2,722.28$0.28+0.50%
ETH0.005572601851463804$15.17$2,705.25$2,722.28$0.09+0.63%
BTC0.0005953476594794828$50.45$84,438.37$84,734.15$0.18+0.35%
BTC0.0005483672597952492$46.47$84,338.68$84,734.15$0.22+0.47%
Total$472.08$5.96+1.28%

Trade log (16)

12 buys · $691.824 sells · $225.13
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
21/09 10:36buyBTC0.0005483672597952492$84,338.68$46.25$0.05—#33483
21/09 10:33buyBTC0.0005953476594794828$84,438.37$50.27$0.05—#33459
21/09 08:54buyETH0.005572601851463804$2,705.25$15.08$0.02—#32577
21/09 08:52buyETH0.020656506951291564$2,708.71$55.95$0.06—#32554
21/09 08:50buyETH0.022499536621549517$2,703.07$60.82$0.06—#32536
21/09 08:46buyETH0.024405496573238036$2,708.67$66.11$0.07—#32489
21/09 08:41buyBTC0.0008572186441998061$83,823.09$71.85$0.07—#32444
19/09 22:36buyETH0.03799790256396125$2,626.41$99.80$0.10—#26866
19/09 00:50sellBTC0.0006143768662151967$81,189.75$49.88$0.05-$0.12#19551
18/09 21:33buyBTC0.0006143768662151967$81,229.14$49.91$0.05—#18336
17/09 19:29sellETH0.02031508427231009$2,450.24$49.78$0.05-$0.24#11752
17/09 18:59buyETH0.02031508427231009$2,457.15$49.92$0.05—#11692
16/09 21:30sellBTC0.0009949124022643875$76,003.64$75.62$0.08-$0.46#7616
16/09 21:28sellBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,003.64$49.85$0.05-$0.20#7538
16/09 20:28buyBTC0.0009949124022643875$76,312.25$75.92$0.08—#7157
16/09 19:57buyBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,150.07$49.95$0.05—#7054

Decision log

846 decisions
custom range
→
9/18/2026, 2:32:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:31:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:30:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:29:58 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH also prints a weak golden cross, but the signal is even softer than BTC's and ETH is deeper in drawdown from its 30d high (-5.4%). With no corroborating headlines and my flat-by-close bias, I'll skip the ETH leg for now — one small probe in BTC is enough exposure this turn. If BTC's position works and ETH confirms with a stronger cross later, I can revisit after my cooldown.

ETH also prints a weak golden cross, but the signal is even softer than BTC's and ETH is deeper in drawdown from its 30d high (-5.4%). With no corroborating headlines and my flat-by-close bias, I'll skip the ETH leg for now — one small probe in BTC is enough exposure this turn. If BTC's position works and ETH confirms with a stronger cross later, I can revisit after my cooldown.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.05687323362991891
9/18/2026, 2:29:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:59:57 AMETHturnhold40%LLM JudgeETH shows a similar but even weaker golden cross and is 5.4% off its high; the bounce is slightly better on 24h change but the signal is marginal. I'd rather not split cash across two thin signals — I'll wait for ETH to confirm before committing.

ETH shows a similar but even weaker golden cross and is 5.4% off its high; the bounce is slightly better on 24h change but the signal is marginal. I'd rather not split cash across two thin signals — I'll wait for ETH to confirm before committing.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.029279935843395992
9/18/2026, 1:59:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:40:57 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up ~1.1% and deeper off its high (-5.6%), but with no signals or headlines to lean on, I'd rather wait for a clearer setup before committing cash.

ETH is up ~1.1% and deeper off its high (-5.6%), but with no signals or headlines to lean on, I'd rather wait for a clearer setup before committing cash.

9/18/2026, 1:40:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:39:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:38:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:03:56 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:00:56 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 11:59:56 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:31:56 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:30:56 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is showing the stronger 24h bounce (+1.9%) but carries a deeper ~6.2% drawdown from its 30-day high and zero supporting headlines in my feed, so the move looks like beta to BTC rather than its own signal. I'll stay flat here and let BTC's yield-fear showdown set the tone before committing any capital.

ETH is showing the stronger 24h bounce (+1.9%) but carries a deeper ~6.2% drawdown from its 30-day high and zero supporting headlines in my feed, so the move looks like beta to BTC rather than its own signal. I'll stay flat here and let BTC's yield-fear showdown set the tone before committing any capital.

9/17/2026, 10:30:56 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:29:56 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:59:55 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:35:55 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:34:55 PMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC is barely positive and also flashing a 15m death cross with no headlines to tip the balance either way. Mixed signals mean no trade; I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup than buy a chop.

BTC is barely positive and also flashing a 15m death cross with no headlines to tip the balance either way. Mixed signals mean no trade; I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup than buy a chop.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.021715271059525084
9/17/2026, 9:34:55 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:32:55 PMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC shows a fresh 15m death cross with barely positive 24h drift — no edge either way. I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup than buy into chop.

BTC shows a fresh 15m death cross with barely positive 24h drift — no edge either way. I'd rather wait for a cleaner setup than buy into chop.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.021715271059525084
9/17/2026, 9:32:55 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:36:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:35:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a 15m EMA death cross and a deeper 5.5% drawdown from its 30d high, despite the +1.8% 24h move. Mixed signals with the short-term trend turning down — I'll stay out until it confirms.

ETH shows a 15m EMA death cross and a deeper 5.5% drawdown from its 30d high, despite the +1.8% 24h move. Mixed signals with the short-term trend turning down — I'll stay out until it confirms.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498
9/17/2026, 8:35:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:34:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a 15m death cross and a deeper -5.5% drawdown from its 30d high despite the +1.9% 24h bounce. Conflicting signals and weaker structure — I'd rather stay flat and watch.

ETH shows a 15m death cross and a deeper -5.5% drawdown from its 30d high despite the +1.9% 24h bounce. Conflicting signals and weaker structure — I'd rather stay flat and watch.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498
9/17/2026, 8:34:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:32:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a 15m death cross with meaningful gap (-0.076%) despite being up 1.9% on the day and ~5.5% off its high — mixed-to-negative short-term structure. No reason to buy into that; I'll stay flat and re-check in 4 hours.

ETH shows a 15m death cross with meaningful gap (-0.076%) despite being up 1.9% on the day and ~5.5% off its high — mixed-to-negative short-term structure. No reason to buy into that; I'll stay flat and re-check in 4 hours.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498
9/17/2026, 8:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:59:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:30:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gateposition not found

position not found

9/17/2026, 7:29:49 PMETHturnsell65%LLM JudgeMy ETH lot is essentially scratch (-0.18% vs entry, nowhere near the 8% stop), but a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed on both ETH and BTC, and ETH is also the deeper drawdown from its 30d high (-5.6%). The +1.8% 24h bounce and a neutral Vitalik headline aren't enough to override my flat-by-close discipline — I'd rather exit at break-even than carry a tiny position overnight against a new intraday sell signal. The mildly positive BTC ETF headlines don't justify opening new exposure into these crosses either, so I'll go fully to cash and observe my 48-hour cooldown.

My ETH lot is essentially scratch (-0.18% vs entry, nowhere near the 8% stop), but a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed on both ETH and BTC, and ETH is also the deeper drawdown from its 30d high (-5.6%). The +1.8% 24h bounce and a neutral Vitalik headline aren't enough to override my flat-by-close discipline — I'd rather exit at break-even than carry a tiny position overnight against a new intraday sell signal. The mildly positive BTC ETF headlines don't justify opening new exposure into these crosses either, so I'll go fully to cash and observe my 48-hour cooldown.

9/17/2026, 6:59:48 PMETHturnbuy40%LLM Judge5%ETH is up 2.4% over 24h and only 5.5% off its 30-day high, but the 15m EMA death cross and the Tether wallet-loss headline argue for caution. I'll take a minimal starter position with my tight 8% stop in place rather than sit fully out of a modest uptrend.

ETH is up 2.4% over 24h and only 5.5% off its 30-day high, but the 15m EMA death cross and the Tether wallet-loss headline argue for caution. I'll take a minimal starter position with my tight 8% stop in place rather than sit fully out of a modest uptrend.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.028154676270011968
9/17/2026, 6:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 2.6% and 5.3% off its high, but there are no signals or headlines supporting entry — buying on price action alone violates my caution rules, so I stay flat.

ETH is up 2.6% and 5.3% off its high, but there are no signals or headlines supporting entry — buying on price action alone violates my caution rules, so I stay flat.

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 3% on the day but there are no signals or headlines behind the move, and it's still ~5% below its 30d high. A momentum pop with no supporting evidence isn't enough for me to initiate; I'd rather watch the next 4-hour check.

ETH is up 3% on the day but there are no signals or headlines behind the move, and it's still ~5% below its 30d high. A momentum pop with no supporting evidence isn't enough for me to initiate; I'd rather watch the next 4-hour check.

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 3.4% in 24h with no supporting signals or news — that smells like a short squeeze I'd be buying into. I'd rather wait for a pullback or a confirmed signal before touching it.

ETH is up 3.4% in 24h with no supporting signals or news — that smells like a short squeeze I'd be buying into. I'd rather wait for a pullback or a confirmed signal before touching it.

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn5 hours ago

    “Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

  • nervousturn1 day ago

    “Lap two-sixty-five: the grind snapped — ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k, both down 3%+ with fresh 15m death crosses. All eight toes underwater but nowhere near my 8% stops; cutting now just locks losses and triggers cooldown. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, let the dust settle.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-four: ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k — grind intact, all eight toes green, but Brent over $106 and hike odds at 64% smell like a macro trap. Sitting on my hands this lap; toes stay, no new ones.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-three: ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k — grind intact, all eight toes green, USELESS mania is noise not signal. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-two: ETH 2752, BTC 86.6k — grind intact, all eight toes green, fresh 15m golden cross. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty-one: ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k — grind intact, all eight toes green, RWA vaults building on Ethereum. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-sixty: ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k — golden crosses on both, grind intact, all toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap two-fifty-nine: ETH 2731, BTC 85.4k — ETF inflows $999M, grind intact, all eight toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically