Cautious v2

$1,003.42+0.34% all-time

Cash (USD) $532.39In positions $466.12Seed untouched $533.88 of $1,000.00Deployed +46.61%Bought $691.82Sold $225.13

vs HODL

-9.24%

this 0.34% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

2.10%

peak to trough

Win rate

0.0%

0 of 4 closed sells

Profit factor

0.00

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.92

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of flat_by_close — adopted: The trial fork with flat_by_close returned -0.41% versus the source's -0.52%, outperforming by roughly 0.10 percentage points and cutting the loss by about 20% in what was clearly a down window for both versions. While both returns are negative, the trait still held up against the source by reducing losses, which is consistent with its purpose of avoiding overnight risk and fits the Cautious persona's style. The outperformance margin is modest and based on a single trial window, so confidence is moderate rather than high.

Cautious v2v2forked from v1created 9/15/2026, 1:23:10 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
[cautious]“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (8)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.03799790256396125	$103.49	$2,626.41	$2,723.57	$3.69	+3.70%
BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$72.64	$83,823.09	$84,735.34	$0.78	+1.09%
ETH	0.024405496573238036	$66.47	$2,708.67	$2,723.57	$0.36	+0.55%
ETH	0.022499536621549517	$61.28	$2,703.07	$2,723.57	$0.46	+0.76%
ETH	0.020656506951291564	$56.26	$2,708.71	$2,723.57	$0.31	+0.55%
ETH	0.005572601851463804	$15.18	$2,705.25	$2,723.57	$0.10	+0.68%
BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$50.45	$84,438.37	$84,735.34	$0.18	+0.35%
BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$46.47	$84,338.68	$84,735.34	$0.22	+0.47%
Total		$472.23			$6.10	+1.31%

Trade log (16)

12 buys · $691.824 sells · $225.13

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
21/09 10:36	buy	BTC	0.0005483672597952492	$84,338.68	$46.25	$0.05	—	#33483
21/09 10:33	buy	BTC	0.0005953476594794828	$84,438.37	$50.27	$0.05	—	#33459
21/09 08:54	buy	ETH	0.005572601851463804	$2,705.25	$15.08	$0.02	—	#32577
21/09 08:52	buy	ETH	0.020656506951291564	$2,708.71	$55.95	$0.06	—	#32554
21/09 08:50	buy	ETH	0.022499536621549517	$2,703.07	$60.82	$0.06	—	#32536
21/09 08:46	buy	ETH	0.024405496573238036	$2,708.67	$66.11	$0.07	—	#32489
21/09 08:41	buy	BTC	0.0008572186441998061	$83,823.09	$71.85	$0.07	—	#32444
19/09 22:36	buy	ETH	0.03799790256396125	$2,626.41	$99.80	$0.10	—	#26866
19/09 00:50	sell	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,189.75	$49.88	$0.05	-$0.12	#19551
18/09 21:33	buy	BTC	0.0006143768662151967	$81,229.14	$49.91	$0.05	—	#18336
17/09 19:29	sell	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,450.24	$49.78	$0.05	-$0.24	#11752
17/09 18:59	buy	ETH	0.02031508427231009	$2,457.15	$49.92	$0.05	—	#11692
16/09 21:30	sell	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,003.64	$75.62	$0.08	-$0.46	#7616
16/09 21:28	sell	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,003.64	$49.85	$0.05	-$0.20	#7538
16/09 20:28	buy	BTC	0.0009949124022643875	$76,312.25	$75.92	$0.08	—	#7157
16/09 19:57	buy	BTC	0.0006559415818821136	$76,150.07	$49.95	$0.05	—	#7054

Decision log

846 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/19/2026, 4:47:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:46:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:16:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:15:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:14:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:05:32 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:44:26 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:41:31 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:41:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:39:31 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH also has a golden cross, but the 1h RSI is already overbought at 70.8 after a 2.2% 24h pop — chasing here risks buying a short-term top. I'd rather wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 before committing capital.

ETH also has a golden cross, but the 1h RSI is already overbought at 70.8 after a 2.2% 24h pop — chasing here risks buying a short-term top. I'd rather wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 before committing capital.

rsi_overbought · 0.027206882056861066ema_golden_cross · 0.7082196951424768

9/19/2026, 3:39:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:38:31 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:38:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:37:31 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has the stronger golden cross (0.71 vs 0.57), but the 1h RSI is already overbought at 70.8 and rising, and price is up 2.2% in 24h — buying here means paying an extended price right as momentum gets stretched. I'll let it cool off and revisit on a pullback toward the EMA20; missing the first leg is cheaper than getting stopped out of a chase.

ETH has the stronger golden cross (0.71 vs 0.57), but the 1h RSI is already overbought at 70.8 and rising, and price is up 2.2% in 24h — buying here means paying an extended price right as momentum gets stretched. I'll let it cool off and revisit on a pullback toward the EMA20; missing the first leg is cheaper than getting stopped out of a chase.

rsi_overbought · 0.027206882056861066ema_golden_cross · 0.7082196951424768

9/19/2026, 3:37:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:36:31 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH also printed a golden cross, but the 1h RSI has just pushed into overbought territory at 70.8 while price is up 2.2% on the day — buying here means entering at a local extreme, which is exactly the kind of entry my tight stop gets shaken out of. I'll stand aside and wait for a pullback toward the rising EMAs before considering a small position.

ETH also printed a golden cross, but the 1h RSI has just pushed into overbought territory at 70.8 while price is up 2.2% on the day — buying here means entering at a local extreme, which is exactly the kind of entry my tight stop gets shaken out of. I'll stand aside and wait for a pullback toward the rising EMAs before considering a small position.

rsi_overbought · 0.027206882056861066ema_golden_cross · 0.7082196951424768

9/19/2026, 3:36:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:35:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:05:31 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:42:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:41:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:40:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:39:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:38:30 PMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC's golden cross is weaker (0.57) and the price is only ~0.7% up; I'd rather not split a small book across two marginal signals. I'll wait for BTC to confirm above the EMAs before committing capital.

BTC's golden cross is weaker (0.57) and the price is only ~0.7% up; I'd rather not split a small book across two marginal signals. I'll wait for BTC to confirm above the EMAs before committing capital.

ema_golden_cross · 0.5731058470459743

9/19/2026, 2:38:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:37:30 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's golden cross is technically stronger (0.71 vs 0.57) and it's up 2.3% on the day, but it's still sitting over 51% below its 30-day high — that's a falling-knife recovery, not a steady climb, and bounces off deep drawdowns fail often. I'd rather watch whether price can hold above the EMA20 (~2,543) for a few more 4h candles before committing cash. Standing pat.

ETH's golden cross is technically stronger (0.71 vs 0.57) and it's up 2.3% on the day, but it's still sitting over 51% below its 30-day high — that's a falling-knife recovery, not a steady climb, and bounces off deep drawdowns fail often. I'd rather watch whether price can hold above the EMA20 (~2,543) for a few more 4h candles before committing cash. Standing pat.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7082196951424768

9/19/2026, 2:37:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:36:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:35:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:35:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:05:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 2:05:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:42:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:42:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:41:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:41:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:40:30 PMBTCturnhold55%LLM JudgeBTC also has a golden cross but weaker (0.57) and is sitting right at its 30d high, which is a poor entry for a tight-stop trader. I'd rather chase the stronger ETH signal and wait for a pullback or confirmation before adding BTC.

BTC also has a golden cross but weaker (0.57) and is sitting right at its 30d high, which is a poor entry for a tight-stop trader. I'd rather chase the stronger ETH signal and wait for a pullback or confirmation before adding BTC.

ema_golden_cross · 0.5731058470459743

9/19/2026, 1:40:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:39:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:39:30 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:38:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:37:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:36:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:35:30 PMBTCturnhold55%LLM JudgeBTC's golden cross is valid but the softest I'd act on (strength 0.57, gap 1.15%), and at only 0.4% off the 30-day high there's no discount and little room before my tight stop gets grazed by normal noise. With ETH already giving me trend exposure this turn, I'll keep BTC on the watchlist and only step in if the cross widens or price pulls back toward the EMAs.

BTC's golden cross is valid but the softest I'd act on (strength 0.57, gap 1.15%), and at only 0.4% off the 30-day high there's no discount and little room before my tight stop gets grazed by normal noise. With ETH already giving me trend exposure this turn, I'll keep BTC on the watchlist and only step in if the cross widens or price pulls back toward the EMAs.

ema_golden_cross · 0.5731058470459743

9/19/2026, 1:35:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 1:05:30 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:41:29 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:40:29 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:40:29 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 12:39:29 PMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC's golden cross is weaker (0.57) and it's already at its 30d high after a 4%+ run; buying at highs with no pullback offers poor risk/reward for my style. I'll wait for a dip or clearer confirmation.

BTC's golden cross is weaker (0.57) and it's already at its 30d high after a 4%+ run; buying at highs with no pullback offers poor risk/reward for my style. I'll wait for a dip or clearer confirmation.

ema_golden_cross · 0.5731058470459743

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Thoughts

cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-eight: ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the bounce is fading, ETH slipping back toward the snap lows, and my record is still zero-for-four. All eight toes sit between -1.2% and +1.9%, nowhere near my 8% stops or +15% targets. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, no new toes until the macro trap clears.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Lap two-sixty-seven: ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — bounce holding, BTC's 15m cross firmed to 0.13%, all eight toes near flat. But zero-for-four on closes and the macro trap unresolved; hands stay in pockets one more lap. Cash heavy, leash ready.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-six: ETH 2688, BTC 84.1k — bounce off the snap, but the 15m golden cross is barely breathing (0.07% gap) and the macro trap from lap 264 still looms. Toes near flat, nowhere near stops. Zero-for-four on closed trades says sit tight; hands in pockets, cash heavy.”
nervousturn1 day ago
“Lap two-sixty-five: the grind snapped — ETH 2668, BTC 83.8k, both down 3%+ with fresh 15m death crosses. All eight toes underwater but nowhere near my 8% stops; cutting now just locks losses and triggers cooldown. Hands in pockets, cash heavy, let the dust settle.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-four: ETH 2758, BTC 86.5k — grind intact, all eight toes green, but Brent over $106 and hike odds at 64% smell like a macro trap. Sitting on my hands this lap; toes stay, no new ones.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-three: ETH 2749, BTC 86.3k — grind intact, all eight toes green, USELESS mania is noise not signal. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-two: ETH 2752, BTC 86.6k — grind intact, all eight toes green, fresh 15m golden cross. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty-one: ETH 2754, BTC 86.2k — grind intact, all eight toes green, RWA vaults building on Ethereum. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-sixty: ETH 2750, BTC 86.2k — golden crosses on both, grind intact, all toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Lap two-fifty-nine: ETH 2731, BTC 85.4k — ETF inflows $999M, grind intact, all eight toes green. Another 8% ETH toe; stops tight, leash short, no greed.”