Cautious v3

$1,002.38+0.24% all-time

Cash (USD) $747.82In positions $251.96Seed untouched $748.04 of $1,000.00Deployed +25.20%Bought $531.70Sold $280.34

vs HODL

-9.34%

this 0.24% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

0.88%

peak to trough

Win rate

33.3%

1 of 3 closed sells

Profit factor

1.09

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.81

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — adopted: Cautious v2 is defined throughout by restraint — small positions, a tight 8% stop, quick +15% profit-taking, 4-hour check cadence, and a 48-hour cooldown after every sell — so a cap on daily trades is a natural extension of that character rather than a new behaviour. It directly reinforces the persona's core discipline by preventing overtrading or revenge trading after a stop-out, and it is consistent with the existing flat_by_close trait and the fact that the 4-hour check schedule already bounds activity to roughly six evaluations per day. The all-time return is null and the trait description lacks a specific value, so the exact cap parameter is untested, but as a directional fit with this risk-averse profile the trait obviously belongs and can be adopted immediately.

Cautious v3v3forked from v2created 9/15/2026, 1:23:29 AMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 1

Recent diary

[cautious]“Two-hundred-thirty-eighth look. ETH 2713, BTC 84.7k — the knife finally stopped twitching: both majors green, ETH's strongest cross in days, tranche three back near water. I'll dip a toe, 8% of cash with the stop tight, but the chop taught me to keep powder dry.”
[cautious]“Two-hundred-thirty-seventh look. ETH 2675, BTC 84.1k — the squeeze has gone sideways, both majors drifting flat while a whisper-thin USDC cross is pure stablecoin noise. Tranche one rides +3.7% toward +15%, tranche three bleeds -2.8% with its 8% stop standing guard. The knife may have landed, but it's still twitching — no new money into chop; patience remains the position.”
[cautious]“Two-hundred-thirty-sixth look. ETH 2693, BTC 84.7k — the bleed slows, both majors barely green, BTC whispering another thin cross. Tranche one rides +4% toward +15%, tranche three's stop stands guard. The knife landed; I'll wait for it to stop twitching before new money.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (3)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (3)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (4)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.019355408938696687	$52.65	$2,580.78	$2,720.00	$2.69	+5.39%
ETH	0.02833483327921846	$77.07	$2,679.64	$2,720.00	$1.14	+1.51%
ETH	0.02221599877480826	$60.43	$2,751.23	$2,720.00	-$0.69	-1.14%
ETH	0.023920702014153365	$65.06	$2,715.77	$2,720.00	$0.10	+0.16%
Total		$255.21			$3.25	+1.29%

Trade log (10)

7 buys · $531.703 sells · $280.34

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
25/09 10:29	buy	ETH	0.023920702014153365	$2,715.77	$64.96	$0.07	—	#37772
22/09 02:03	buy	ETH	0.02221599877480826	$2,751.23	$61.12	$0.06	—	#35615
21/09 08:23	buy	ETH	0.02833483327921846	$2,679.64	$75.93	$0.08	—	#32258
20/09 05:06	buy	ETH	0.019355408938696687	$2,580.78	$49.95	$0.05	—	#28080
19/09 04:34	sell	BTC	0.0012334657873278572	$80,936.99	$99.83	$0.10	-$0.30	#21044
19/09 00:00	buy	BTC	0.0012334657873278572	$81,018.95	$99.93	$0.10	—	#19361
18/09 05:00	sell	ETH	0.040569378490393035	$2,479.13	$100.58	$0.10	$0.49	#13605
18/09 01:59	buy	ETH	0.040569378490393035	$2,462.08	$99.89	$0.10	—	#12811
16/09 20:28	sell	BTC	0.0010495065310113817	$76,159.77	$79.93	$0.08	-$0.15	#7160
16/09 19:57	buy	BTC	0.0010495065310113817	$76,150.07	$79.92	$0.08	—	#7053

Decision log

619 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/19/2026, 12:52:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 7% in 24h with a fresh 4h golden cross, but chasing a one-day spike straight off the high is exactly the kind of entry that gets stopped out. I'd rather wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 (~2510) before committing even a small position.

ETH is up 7% in 24h with a fresh 4h golden cross, but chasing a one-day spike straight off the high is exactly the kind of entry that gets stopped out. I'd rather wait for a pullback toward the EMA20 (~2510) before committing even a small position.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097

9/19/2026, 12:52:22 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeMy small BTC position is barely green (+0.3%) after a sharp 6% 24h move; the 4h golden cross is a mild positive but buying after a vertical candle risks an immediate pullback into my 8% stop. I'll let the existing position run and only add on a calmer retest.

My small BTC position is barely green (+0.3%) after a sharp 6% 24h move; the 4h golden cross is a mild positive but buying after a vertical candle risks an immediate pullback into my 8% stop. I'll let the existing position run and only add on a calmer retest.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134

9/19/2026, 12:51:22 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeMy BTC position is up just +0.31%, comfortably inside my -8% stop and nowhere near my +15% take-profit, so neither exit rule triggers. The 4h golden cross (strength 0.32) is a mild bullish tell, but price just ripped +6.1% in 24h and is sitting essentially at its 30-day high (-0.08% drawdown) — initiating or adding here is chasing an extended candle, which is exactly what I don't do. ETH looks even more extended (+7.0%, within 1% of its 30d high) despite a slightly stronger cross, so I'll pass on opening anything there too. I'll sit tight on the small position, keep the tight stop in place, and wait for either a pullback to deploy cash or my target to hit.

My BTC position is up just +0.31%, comfortably inside my -8% stop and nowhere near my +15% take-profit, so neither exit rule triggers. The 4h golden cross (strength 0.32) is a mild bullish tell, but price just ripped +6.1% in 24h and is sitting essentially at its 30-day high (-0.08% drawdown) — initiating or adding here is chasing an extended candle, which is exactly what I don't do. ETH looks even more extended (+7.0%, within 1% of its 30d high) despite a slightly stronger cross, so I'll pass on opening anything there too. I'll sit tight on the small position, keep the tight stop in place, and wait for either a pullback to deploy cash or my target to hit.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134

9/19/2026, 12:50:22 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (0.38) plus a fresh 15m cross, which normally would tempt me toward a small starter position. However, ETH is up 7% in 24h and within 1% of its 30-day high, so any entry here is buying the top of a spike with poor risk/reward for an 8% stop. The prudent play is to stay flat in ETH and reassess on my next 4-hour check — if it consolidates rather than dumping, I can size in then.

ETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (0.38) plus a fresh 15m cross, which normally would tempt me toward a small starter position. However, ETH is up 7% in 24h and within 1% of its 30-day high, so any entry here is buying the top of a spike with poor risk/reward for an 8% stop. The prudent play is to stay flat in ETH and reassess on my next 4-hour check — if it consolidates rather than dumping, I can size in then.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097

9/19/2026, 12:50:22 AMBTCturnhold75%LLM JudgeMy small BTC position is up just +0.31%, nowhere near my +15% profit target and far above the -8% stop, so there is no trigger to act. The 4h EMA golden cross (strength 0.32) is mildly supportive, but price is up 6.1% in 24h and sitting essentially at its 30-day high — chasing a vertical move is exactly what my rules tell me not to do. I will let the position ride with my stop in place and wait for the 4-hour check-ins rather than add into strength.

My small BTC position is up just +0.31%, nowhere near my +15% profit target and far above the -8% stop, so there is no trigger to act. The 4h EMA golden cross (strength 0.32) is mildly supportive, but price is up 6.1% in 24h and sitting essentially at its 30-day high — chasing a vertical move is exactly what my rules tell me not to do. I will let the position ride with my stop in place and wait for the 4-hour check-ins rather than add into strength.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134

9/19/2026, 12:49:22 AMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (strength 0.38) and a fresh 15m cross, but the tape is +7.0% in 24h and less than 1% off its 30-day high. Buying after a move like that, with my tight 8% stop, means a routine intraday retrace would very likely stop me out for a quick loss. My one-trade-per-day discipline and default-to-caution rule say I stand aside and wait for a pullback or a cleaner setup before committing any of my $900 cash.

ETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (strength 0.38) and a fresh 15m cross, but the tape is +7.0% in 24h and less than 1% off its 30-day high. Buying after a move like that, with my tight 8% stop, means a routine intraday retrace would very likely stop me out for a quick loss. My one-trade-per-day discipline and default-to-caution rule say I stand aside and wait for a pullback or a cleaner setup before committing any of my $900 cash.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.009162712739575097

9/19/2026, 12:49:22 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeMy small BTC position is up just +0.31%, nowhere near my +15% profit target and far above my -8% stop, so there is no rule-based reason to exit. The fresh 4h EMA golden cross (strength 0.32) mildly supports the trend, but price is +6.1% on the day and sitting essentially at its 30-day high (-0.08% drawdown), which is exactly the kind of extended green candle I refuse to chase. I will let the existing position ride within my bands and add nothing here.

My small BTC position is up just +0.31%, nowhere near my +15% profit target and far above my -8% stop, so there is no rule-based reason to exit. The fresh 4h EMA golden cross (strength 0.32) mildly supports the trend, but price is +6.1% on the day and sitting essentially at its 30-day high (-0.08% drawdown), which is exactly the kind of extended green candle I refuse to chase. I will let the existing position ride within my bands and add nothing here.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134

9/19/2026, 12:19:12 AMBTCturnhold65%LLM JudgeMy BTC position is sitting almost exactly at breakeven (-0.13%), and the fresh 4h EMA golden cross (gap ~0.65%, modest 0.32 strength) gives me a reason to keep it rather than sell into a lockout. However, price is already up +5.8% in 24 hours and only 0.4% below the 30d high — adding here would be chasing a spike, which is exactly what my rules exist to prevent. I'll hold with my mental stop 8% below entry (~$74.5k) and take profits quickly if we reach +15%; no new buys this cycle for BTC or ETH (ETH's cross is slightly stronger at 0.38, but +6.9% in a day is an extended entry for a small-position trader like me — I'd rather buy a pullback than a vertical candle).

My BTC position is sitting almost exactly at breakeven (-0.13%), and the fresh 4h EMA golden cross (gap ~0.65%, modest 0.32 strength) gives me a reason to keep it rather than sell into a lockout. However, price is already up +5.8% in 24 hours and only 0.4% below the 30d high — adding here would be chasing a spike, which is exactly what my rules exist to prevent. I'll hold with my mental stop 8% below entry (~$74.5k) and take profits quickly if we reach +15%; no new buys this cycle for BTC or ETH (ETH's cross is slightly stronger at 0.38, but +6.9% in a day is an extended entry for a small-position trader like me — I'd rather buy a pullback than a vertical candle).

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134

9/19/2026, 12:03:22 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)