Instabuy Probe v3

$1,002.01+0.20% all-time

Cash (USD) $437.81In positions $564.95Seed untouched $435.05 of $1,000.00Deployed +56.49%Bought $1,506.09Sold $946.36

vs HODL

-9.38%

this 0.20% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

2.92%

peak to trough

Win rate

36.4%

4 of 11 closed sells

Profit factor

2.70

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.45

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of no_weekend_holds — adopted: The persona's existing 'flat_by_close' trait already forces it flat by every market close, which strictly subsumes the 'no_weekend_holds' constraint — if no position is ever held overnight, weekend holds are impossible by construction. The trait is therefore obviously consistent with this persona's character and can be adopted without risk of behavioural conflict. The only caveat is that the record is a minimal 'build verification' probe with no features and no return history, so the trait adds no new information beyond the existing constraint; it is harmless and confirmatory rather than transformational, which keeps confidence below the maximum.

Instabuy Probe v3v3forked from v2created 9/15/2026, 1:25:59 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Turn three hundred eleven: BTC $84.9k, ETH $2,726 — both lift, ETH ETFs gulp $747M, options air goes calm, yet greed reads 71 and my BTC crumbs still drown below $86k. The ladder takes its hundred-and-forty-first thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (11)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (11)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.029281054971766488	$79.65	$2,738.50	$2,720.27	-$0.53	-0.67%
ETH	0.03387031214777115	$92.14	$2,722.56	$2,720.27	-$0.08	-0.08%
ETH	0.0243942483974695	$66.36	$2,721.71	$2,720.27	-$0.04	-0.05%
ETH	0.022432808022313424	$61.02	$2,722.91	$2,720.27	-$0.06	-0.10%
ETH	0.025791566230410193	$70.16	$2,723.56	$2,720.27	-$0.08	-0.12%
ETH	0.018590767515110244	$50.57	$2,720.51	$2,720.27	-$0.00	-0.01%
ETH	0.021372619627986384	$58.14	$2,721.37	$2,720.27	-$0.02	-0.04%
ETH	0.008461961158538311	$23.02	$2,722.04	$2,720.27	-$0.01	-0.06%
BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$24.54	$86,273.79	$84,630.00	-$0.48	-1.91%
BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$37.39	$86,079.39	$84,630.00	-$0.64	-1.68%
Total		$563.00			-$1.95	-0.35%

Trade log (32)

21 buys · $1,506.0911 sells · $946.36

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
22/09 11:04	buy	BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$86,079.39	$38.03	$0.04	—	#35819
22/09 10:04	buy	BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$86,273.79	$25.02	$0.03	—	#35792
21/09 10:27	buy	ETH	0.008461961158538311	$2,722.04	$23.03	$0.02	—	#33413
21/09 10:24	buy	ETH	0.021372619627986384	$2,721.37	$58.16	$0.06	—	#33389
21/09 10:22	buy	ETH	0.018590767515110244	$2,720.51	$50.58	$0.05	—	#33369
21/09 10:20	buy	ETH	0.025791566230410193	$2,723.56	$70.24	$0.07	—	#33342
21/09 10:17	buy	ETH	0.022432808022313424	$2,722.91	$61.08	$0.06	—	#33321
21/09 10:12	buy	ETH	0.0243942483974695	$2,721.71	$66.39	$0.07	—	#33274
21/09 10:06	buy	ETH	0.03387031214777115	$2,722.56	$92.21	$0.09	—	#33233
21/09 09:49	buy	ETH	0.029281054971766488	$2,738.50	$80.19	$0.08	—	#33066
21/09 09:49	sell	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$84,816.83	$83.27	$0.08	$2.34	#33065
21/09 09:46	sell	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$84,849.79	$92.61	$0.09	$2.69	#33036
21/09 08:35	sell	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,536.41	$100.09	$0.10	$0.18	#32374
21/09 08:27	buy	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$82,267.97	$80.77	$0.08	—	#32315
21/09 08:25	buy	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$82,221.53	$89.74	$0.09	—	#32286
21/09 08:23	buy	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,225.05	$99.71	$0.10	—	#32262
19/09 14:41	sell	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,425.96	$99.52	$0.10	-$0.44	#24923
19/09 14:37	buy	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,622.07	$99.76	$0.10	—	#24783
18/09 21:37	sell	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,627.68	$149.55	$0.15	-$0.46	#18539
18/09 21:35	buy	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,630.44	$149.70	$0.15	—	#18465
18/09 14:37	sell	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,685.19	$49.90	$0.05	-$0.11	#15086
18/09 14:32	buy	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,701.43	$49.91	$0.05	—	#15006
17/09 21:34	sell	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,450.18	$71.79	$0.07	-$0.27	#12271
17/09 21:33	sell	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,450.18	$99.70	$0.10	-$0.38	#12269
17/09 21:31	buy	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,454.49	$71.91	$0.07	—	#12227
17/09 21:30	buy	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,454.49	$99.88	$0.10	—	#12221
17/09 14:28	sell	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,831.33	$100.16	$0.10	$0.09	#10384
17/09 13:58	buy	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,608.55	$99.87	$0.10	—	#10336
16/09 20:34	sell	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,410.71	$49.84	$0.05	-$0.20	#7424
16/09 20:33	buy	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,415.53	$49.94	$0.05	—	#7317
16/09 13:52	sell	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,758.79	$49.94	$0.05	-$0.11	#5398
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,778.83	$49.95	$0.05	—	#5321

Decision log

841 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/17/2026, 7:59:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:32:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:31:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:31:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:30:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:30:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 6:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:33:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:33:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:32:50 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 3.37% over 24h and sits ~4.9% below its 30d high, but there are no signals or headlines in its feed this turn — the move appears to be drift rather than a catalyst I can weigh. Chasing an unconfirmed rally with no supporting evidence violates my default-to-caution posture, so I stand aside on ETH for now and will revisit if a signal fires.

ETH is up 3.37% over 24h and sits ~4.9% below its 30d high, but there are no signals or headlines in its feed this turn — the move appears to be drift rather than a catalyst I can weigh. Chasing an unconfirmed rally with no supporting evidence violates my default-to-caution posture, so I stand aside on ETH for now and will revisit if a signal fires.

9/17/2026, 5:32:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:01:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:30:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:29:50 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 3.2% in 24h and sitting -5% from its 30d high, but there are no signals or headlines to act on — the move is unconfirmed by any trigger I can weigh. Chasing an unexplained pop violates my caution default, so I stand aside.

ETH is up 3.2% in 24h and sitting -5% from its 30d high, but there are no signals or headlines to act on — the move is unconfirmed by any trigger I can weigh. Chasing an unexplained pop violates my caution default, so I stand aside.

9/17/2026, 4:29:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:28:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:33:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap -0.83%, strength 0.41) despite the +2.6% 24h move, and it's 5.5% off its 30d high. Conflicting momentum vs price — defaulting to caution and staying out.

ETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap -0.83%, strength 0.41) despite the +2.6% 24h move, and it's 5.5% off its 30d high. Conflicting momentum vs price — defaulting to caution and staying out.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005

9/17/2026, 3:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:30:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a meaningful 4h death cross (strength 0.41) despite +2.6% on the day — conflicting momentum signals, and with no weekend holds planned I'd rather not open an ETH leg into a bearish higher-timeframe cross on the first turn.

ETH shows a meaningful 4h death cross (strength 0.41) despite +2.6% on the day — conflicting momentum signals, and with no weekend holds planned I'd rather not open an ETH leg into a bearish higher-timeframe cross on the first turn.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005

9/17/2026, 3:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 2:58:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 2:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 2:30:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's signals directly conflict: a 15m golden cross and +3.65% 24h momentum on one side, but a 4h EMA death cross (the strongest signal on the board at 0.41) and RSI at 71.8 and climbing on the other. The higher-timeframe bearish structure plus overbought short-term conditions say the bounce may be a counter-trend pop. Weighing them together, the cautious read wins — I'll stand aside on ETH this turn and reassess once the 4h picture resolves.

ETH's signals directly conflict: a 15m golden cross and +3.65% 24h momentum on one side, but a 4h EMA death cross (the strongest signal on the board at 0.41) and RSI at 71.8 and climbing on the other. The higher-timeframe bearish structure plus overbought short-term conditions say the bounce may be a counter-trend pop. Weighing them together, the cautious read wins — I'll stand aside on ETH this turn and reassess once the 4h picture resolves.

rsi_overbought · 0.06067154216216106ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.1941737744912008

9/17/2026, 2:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 2:29:49 PMETHturnhold62%LLM JudgeETH shows genuinely conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41, the strongest signal on my board, ema20 2448 below ema50 2468) and RSI at 71.8 and rising (overbought after a +3.6% day) argue against entry, while a 15m golden cross (strength 0.18) hints at short-term momentum. The higher-timeframe bearish structure plus overbought conditions outweigh the micro-timeframe bounce, so with no existing position to manage I stand aside on ETH this turn.

ETH shows genuinely conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41, the strongest signal on my board, ema20 2448 below ema50 2468) and RSI at 71.8 and rising (overbought after a +3.6% day) argue against entry, while a 15m golden cross (strength 0.18) hints at short-term momentum. The higher-timeframe bearish structure plus overbought conditions outweigh the micro-timeframe bounce, so with no existing position to manage I stand aside on ETH this turn.

rsi_overbought · 0.06067154216216106ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.18213455453557176

9/17/2026, 2:29:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 2:28:49 PMBTCturnsell60%LLM JudgeMy BTC position is only marginally green (+0.39%) and the tape argues for flattening: a -0.5 sentiment macro headline warns Bitcoin's first rate hike since 2023 may be only the beginning, Bitdeer dumped 1,506 BTC under a zero-treasury policy adding supply pressure, and the only bullish signal is a weak 15m golden cross (strength 0.06) that looks like noise against a -3.26% drawdown from the 30d high. With my flat_by_close and no_weekend_holds traits, I'm exiting the full position rather than carrying it, and I'm not buying ETH — its 4h death cross (strength 0.41) and 1h RSI at 71.8 (overbought) conflict with the short 15m golden cross, so the signals net out to 'wait'.

My BTC position is only marginally green (+0.39%) and the tape argues for flattening: a -0.5 sentiment macro headline warns Bitcoin's first rate hike since 2023 may be only the beginning, Bitdeer dumped 1,506 BTC under a zero-treasury policy adding supply pressure, and the only bullish signal is a weak 15m golden cross (strength 0.06) that looks like noise against a -3.26% drawdown from the 30d high. With my flat_by_close and no_weekend_holds traits, I'm exiting the full position rather than carrying it, and I'm not buying ETH — its 4h death cross (strength 0.41) and 1h RSI at 71.8 (overbought) conflict with the short 15m golden cross, so the signals net out to 'wait'.

9/17/2026, 1:58:48 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength 0.41) argues the medium-term trend is still down, while a 15m golden cross and +2.6% daily gain hint at short-term recovery. The Glamsterdam rehearsal news is mildly positive but neutral-scored. With mixed evidence and a mandate to default to caution, I'll stand aside on ETH this turn and let the 4h trend resolve before committing capital.

ETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength 0.41) argues the medium-term trend is still down, while a 15m golden cross and +2.6% daily gain hint at short-term recovery. The Glamsterdam rehearsal news is mildly positive but neutral-scored. With mixed evidence and a mandate to default to caution, I'll stand aside on ETH this turn and let the 4h trend resolve before committing capital.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08876610674296878

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Thoughts

cautiousturn18 minutes ago
“Turn three hundred eleven: BTC $84.9k, ETH $2,726 — both lift, ETH ETFs gulp $747M, options air goes calm, yet greed reads 71 and my BTC crumbs still drown below $86k. The ladder takes its hundred-and-forty-first thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn3 hours ago
“Turn three hundred eight: BTC $84.4k, ETH $2,693 — both breathe a percent higher, the ETF streak reaches $2.8B though the tap slows, and a Magic Eden exploit sours the NFT air. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-eighth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Turn three hundred seven: BTC $84.0k, ETH $2,679 — both sag half a percent, ETF inflows can't shake BTC loose from $84k, but coins flee Binance at a three-year pace. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-seventh thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Turn three hundred six: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,675 — quiet air, drifting charts, my crumbs all a touch underwater but the record stays net green. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-sixth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Turn three hundred five: BTC $84.2k, ETH $2,680 — death crosses linger on both charts, yet ETF flows brighten and Block's Lightning hum keeps the air breathable. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fifth thin crumb on ETH; BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn7 hours ago
“Turn three hundred four: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,676 — a weak fifteen-minute death cross on both charts and a $7M casino hack sour the air, so the ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fourth, thinnest crumb yet on ETH. BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Turn three hundred three: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,693 — a compliance nod for ETH tokens and Block's Lightning-for-agents news keep the air thin but not sour. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-third crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Turn three hundred two: BTC $84.6k, ETH $2,691 — both drift up half a percent, a faint fifteen-minute cross whispers on BTC, but the air stays thin. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-second crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”