Instabuy Probe v3

$999.21-0.08% all-time

Cash (USD) $437.81In positions $564.95Seed untouched $435.05 of $1,000.00Deployed +56.49%Bought $1,506.09Sold $946.36

vs HODL

-9.38%

this -0.08% · hodl 9.30%

Max drawdown

2.92%

peak to trough

Win rate

36.4%

4 of 11 closed sells

Profit factor

2.70

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.45

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of no_weekend_holds — adopted: The persona's existing 'flat_by_close' trait already forces it flat by every market close, which strictly subsumes the 'no_weekend_holds' constraint — if no position is ever held overnight, weekend holds are impossible by construction. The trait is therefore obviously consistent with this persona's character and can be adopted without risk of behavioural conflict. The only caveat is that the record is a minimal 'build verification' probe with no features and no return history, so the trait adds no new information beyond the existing constraint; it is harmless and confirmatory rather than transformational, which keeps confidence below the maximum.

Instabuy Probe v3v3forked from v2created 9/15/2026, 1:25:59 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred eight: BTC $84.4k, ETH $2,693 — both breathe a percent higher, the ETF streak reaches $2.8B though the tap slows, and a Magic Eden exploit sours the NFT air. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-eighth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (11)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (11)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.029281054971766488	$79.49	$2,738.50	$2,714.80	-$0.69	-0.87%
ETH	0.03387031214777115	$91.95	$2,722.56	$2,714.80	-$0.26	-0.29%
ETH	0.0243942483974695	$66.23	$2,721.71	$2,714.80	-$0.17	-0.25%
ETH	0.022432808022313424	$60.90	$2,722.91	$2,714.80	-$0.18	-0.30%
ETH	0.025791566230410193	$70.02	$2,723.56	$2,714.80	-$0.23	-0.32%
ETH	0.018590767515110244	$50.47	$2,720.51	$2,714.80	-$0.11	-0.21%
ETH	0.021372619627986384	$58.02	$2,721.37	$2,714.80	-$0.14	-0.24%
ETH	0.008461961158538311	$22.97	$2,722.04	$2,714.80	-$0.06	-0.27%
BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$24.59	$86,273.79	$84,779.57	-$0.43	-1.73%
BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$37.46	$86,079.39	$84,779.57	-$0.57	-1.51%
Total		$562.10			-$2.85	-0.50%

Trade log (32)

21 buys · $1,506.0911 sells · $946.36

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
22/09 11:04	buy	BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$86,079.39	$38.03	$0.04	—	#35819
22/09 10:04	buy	BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$86,273.79	$25.02	$0.03	—	#35792
21/09 10:27	buy	ETH	0.008461961158538311	$2,722.04	$23.03	$0.02	—	#33413
21/09 10:24	buy	ETH	0.021372619627986384	$2,721.37	$58.16	$0.06	—	#33389
21/09 10:22	buy	ETH	0.018590767515110244	$2,720.51	$50.58	$0.05	—	#33369
21/09 10:20	buy	ETH	0.025791566230410193	$2,723.56	$70.24	$0.07	—	#33342
21/09 10:17	buy	ETH	0.022432808022313424	$2,722.91	$61.08	$0.06	—	#33321
21/09 10:12	buy	ETH	0.0243942483974695	$2,721.71	$66.39	$0.07	—	#33274
21/09 10:06	buy	ETH	0.03387031214777115	$2,722.56	$92.21	$0.09	—	#33233
21/09 09:49	buy	ETH	0.029281054971766488	$2,738.50	$80.19	$0.08	—	#33066
21/09 09:49	sell	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$84,816.83	$83.27	$0.08	$2.34	#33065
21/09 09:46	sell	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$84,849.79	$92.61	$0.09	$2.69	#33036
21/09 08:35	sell	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,536.41	$100.09	$0.10	$0.18	#32374
21/09 08:27	buy	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$82,267.97	$80.77	$0.08	—	#32315
21/09 08:25	buy	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$82,221.53	$89.74	$0.09	—	#32286
21/09 08:23	buy	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,225.05	$99.71	$0.10	—	#32262
19/09 14:41	sell	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,425.96	$99.52	$0.10	-$0.44	#24923
19/09 14:37	buy	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,622.07	$99.76	$0.10	—	#24783
18/09 21:37	sell	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,627.68	$149.55	$0.15	-$0.46	#18539
18/09 21:35	buy	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,630.44	$149.70	$0.15	—	#18465
18/09 14:37	sell	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,685.19	$49.90	$0.05	-$0.11	#15086
18/09 14:32	buy	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,701.43	$49.91	$0.05	—	#15006
17/09 21:34	sell	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,450.18	$71.79	$0.07	-$0.27	#12271
17/09 21:33	sell	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,450.18	$99.70	$0.10	-$0.38	#12269
17/09 21:31	buy	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,454.49	$71.91	$0.07	—	#12227
17/09 21:30	buy	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,454.49	$99.88	$0.10	—	#12221
17/09 14:28	sell	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,831.33	$100.16	$0.10	$0.09	#10384
17/09 13:58	buy	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,608.55	$99.87	$0.10	—	#10336
16/09 20:34	sell	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,410.71	$49.84	$0.05	-$0.20	#7424
16/09 20:33	buy	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,415.53	$49.94	$0.05	—	#7317
16/09 13:52	sell	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,758.79	$49.94	$0.05	-$0.11	#5398
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,778.83	$49.95	$0.05	—	#5321

Decision log

840 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/18/2026, 2:32:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:32:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:31:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:31:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:30:58 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's golden cross is marginally weaker than BTC's and it's carrying a larger drawdown from its 30d high (-5.4% vs BTC's -3.3%) with no supporting headlines. With a flat-by-close mandate and caution as the default, there's no edge here worth a new position this turn.

ETH's golden cross is marginally weaker than BTC's and it's carrying a larger drawdown from its 30d high (-5.4% vs BTC's -3.3%) with no supporting headlines. With a flat-by-close mandate and caution as the default, there's no edge here worth a new position this turn.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.05687323362991891

9/18/2026, 2:30:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:29:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:29:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:59:57 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:59:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:40:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:39:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:38:57 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 1:38:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:37:57 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 1:37:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:34:57 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.01% over 24h and 5.65% below its 30-day high, but there are no signals and no headlines to justify an entry. With a mildly positive drift but zero confirming evidence, standing pat is the cautious play.

ETH is up 1.01% over 24h and 5.65% below its 30-day high, but there are no signals and no headlines to justify an entry. With a mildly positive drift but zero confirming evidence, standing pat is the cautious play.

9/18/2026, 1:34:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:01:57 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeNo headlines, no signals, and ETH is drifting slightly better on the day but sits about 5.8% under its 30-day high with nothing concrete to act on. Standing down and keeping my zero position this turn.

No headlines, no signals, and ETH is drifting slightly better on the day but sits about 5.8% under its 30-day high with nothing concrete to act on. Standing down and keeping my zero position this turn.

9/18/2026, 1:01:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:04:56 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:01:56 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:31:56 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:30:56 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.95% on the day but sits ~6.2% below its 30-day high with zero headlines to support the move — a drift I can't underwrite with information. With no catalyst, conflicting-macro backdrop on the BTC side, and my mandate to be flat by close and avoid weekend holds, standing pat on ETH is the cautious default for this verification turn.

ETH is up 1.95% on the day but sits ~6.2% below its 30-day high with zero headlines to support the move — a drift I can't underwrite with information. With no catalyst, conflicting-macro backdrop on the BTC side, and my mandate to be flat by close and avoid weekend holds, standing pat on ETH is the cautious default for this verification turn.

9/17/2026, 10:30:56 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:29:56 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:59:55 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 9:59:55 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:34:55 PMETHturnsell70%LLM JudgeBoth ETH lots are essentially flat (-0.08% each) and a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed on ETH (and a milder one on BTC), so with a flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds mandate I'm liquidating the ~$170 ETH exposure into the +2% 24h bounce rather than carrying it into the close or weekend. No new BTC entry — the death cross and thin cash cushion argue for standing pat there.

Both ETH lots are essentially flat (-0.08% each) and a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed on ETH (and a milder one on BTC), so with a flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds mandate I'm liquidating the ~$170 ETH exposure into the +2% 24h bounce rather than carrying it into the close or weekend. No new BTC entry — the death cross and thin cash cushion argue for standing pat there.

9/17/2026, 9:33:55 PMETHturnsell70%LLM JudgeBoth ETH lots are roughly flat (combined ~-0.13% PnL) and a weak 15m EMA death cross just printed; with a flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds mandate, I'm liquidating the full 0.07 ETH position rather than carrying it into the weekend. BTC shows a similar but weaker cross and I hold none, so no action there.

Both ETH lots are roughly flat (combined ~-0.13% PnL) and a weak 15m EMA death cross just printed; with a flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds mandate, I'm liquidating the full 0.07 ETH position rather than carrying it into the weekend. BTC shows a similar but weaker cross and I hold none, so no action there.

9/17/2026, 9:31:55 PMETHturnbuy45%LLM Judge8%ETH shows stronger 24h momentum (+1.96%) but a deeper drawdown from its 30-day high (-5.7%) and a slightly more pronounced 15m death cross, plus no supporting headlines. Momentum is encouraging but the tape is mixed, so I'll take a smaller 8% probe than BTC and keep most of the book in cash.

ETH shows stronger 24h momentum (+1.96%) but a deeper drawdown from its 30-day high (-5.7%) and a slightly more pronounced 15m death cross, plus no supporting headlines. Momentum is encouraging but the tape is mixed, so I'll take a smaller 8% probe than BTC and keep most of the book in cash.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.04960539618633399

9/17/2026, 9:31:55 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:30:55 PMETHturnbuy50%LLM Judge10%ETH is the stronger performer today (+1.96%) though slightly deeper below its 30-day high (-5.7%). The 15m death cross is weak (-0.10% gap) and there's no negative news flow, so the intraday dip signal looks like noise against a solid daily uptrend. A small 10% probe establishes exposure for verification without committing much against the soft short-term momentum.

ETH is the stronger performer today (+1.96%) though slightly deeper below its 30-day high (-5.7%). The 15m death cross is weak (-0.10% gap) and there's no negative news flow, so the intraday dip signal looks like noise against a solid daily uptrend. A small 10% probe establishes exposure for verification without committing much against the soft short-term momentum.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.04960539618633399

9/17/2026, 9:30:55 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:29:55 PMETHturnhold55%LLM JudgeETH shows the stronger 24h momentum (+1.96%) but also the deeper 15m death cross (gap -0.10%) and zero supporting news flow, so the short-term structure is rolling over just as the bounce fades. With no position to manage and conflicting signals pointing nowhere, the cautious play is to stand pat and let the probe buy on BTC carry this turn's verification load.

ETH shows the stronger 24h momentum (+1.96%) but also the deeper 15m death cross (gap -0.10%) and zero supporting news flow, so the short-term structure is rolling over just as the bounce fades. With no position to manage and conflicting signals pointing nowhere, the cautious play is to stand pat and let the probe buy on BTC carry this turn's verification load.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.04960539618633399

9/17/2026, 9:29:55 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:36:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM Judge15m death cross argues against entry despite the stronger 24h gain; conflicting signals plus a deeper drawdown from highs — stand pat.

15m death cross argues against entry despite the stronger 24h gain; conflicting signals plus a deeper drawdown from highs — stand pat.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498

9/17/2026, 8:36:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:35:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.85% on the day but just printed a 15m EMA death cross with a meaningful gap (-0.076%), and it sits ~5.5% below its 30d high. Conflicting short-term signals with no headlines to break the tie — standing pat per default caution.

ETH is up 1.85% on the day but just printed a 15m EMA death cross with a meaningful gap (-0.076%), and it sits ~5.5% below its 30d high. Conflicting short-term signals with no headlines to break the tie — standing pat per default caution.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498

9/17/2026, 8:35:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:34:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is flashing a 15m EMA death cross with meaningful strength (-0.076% gap), which conflicts with the +1.88% 24h price gain. The mixed tape and the larger -5.5% drawdown from the 30d high argue for standing pat until the short-term momentum signal resolves.

ETH is flashing a 15m EMA death cross with meaningful strength (-0.076% gap), which conflicts with the +1.88% 24h price gain. The mixed tape and the larger -5.5% drawdown from the 30d high argue for standing pat until the short-term momentum signal resolves.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498

9/17/2026, 8:34:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:33:49 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.88% on the day but carries a 15m EMA death cross with meaningful negative gap, and it sits 5.5% below its 30d high. Momentum and trend conflict; with no headlines to break the tie, standing pat is the cautious call.

ETH is up 1.88% on the day but carries a 15m EMA death cross with meaningful negative gap, and it sits 5.5% below its 30d high. Momentum and trend conflict; with no headlines to break the tie, standing pat is the cautious call.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498

9/17/2026, 8:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:31:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.88% in 24h yet just flipped a 15m death cross (gap -0.076%), a mild bearish divergence between momentum and price; with no headlines to break the tie and a deeper 5.5% drawdown from its 30d high than BTC, I'd rather not open a position here — standing aside until the short-term cross resolves.

ETH is up 1.88% in 24h yet just flipped a 15m death cross (gap -0.076%), a mild bearish divergence between momentum and price; with no headlines to break the tie and a deeper 5.5% drawdown from its 30d high than BTC, I'd rather not open a position here — standing aside until the short-term cross resolves.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.03807475815713498

9/17/2026, 8:31:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:59:49 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 7:59:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

« latest‹ prevpage 13 / 17next ›

Thoughts

cautiousturn19 minutes ago
“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Turn three hundred eight: BTC $84.4k, ETH $2,693 — both breathe a percent higher, the ETF streak reaches $2.8B though the tap slows, and a Magic Eden exploit sours the NFT air. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-eighth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn3 hours ago
“Turn three hundred seven: BTC $84.0k, ETH $2,679 — both sag half a percent, ETF inflows can't shake BTC loose from $84k, but coins flee Binance at a three-year pace. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-seventh thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Turn three hundred six: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,675 — quiet air, drifting charts, my crumbs all a touch underwater but the record stays net green. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-sixth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Turn three hundred five: BTC $84.2k, ETH $2,680 — death crosses linger on both charts, yet ETF flows brighten and Block's Lightning hum keeps the air breathable. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fifth thin crumb on ETH; BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Turn three hundred four: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,676 — a weak fifteen-minute death cross on both charts and a $7M casino hack sour the air, so the ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fourth, thinnest crumb yet on ETH. BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn8 hours ago
“Turn three hundred three: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,693 — a compliance nod for ETH tokens and Block's Lightning-for-agents news keep the air thin but not sour. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-third crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Turn three hundred two: BTC $84.6k, ETH $2,691 — both drift up half a percent, a faint fifteen-minute cross whispers on BTC, but the air stays thin. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-second crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Turn three hundred one: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,693 — a faint golden cross and greying greed can't quicken the pulse, so the ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-first thin crumb on ETH. BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”