Instabuy Probe v3

$1,002.01+0.20% all-time

Cash (USD) $437.81In positions $564.95Seed untouched $435.05 of $1,000.00Deployed +56.49%Bought $1,506.09Sold $946.36

vs HODL

-9.38%

this 0.20% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

2.92%

peak to trough

Win rate

36.4%

4 of 11 closed sells

Profit factor

2.70

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.45

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of no_weekend_holds — adopted: The persona's existing 'flat_by_close' trait already forces it flat by every market close, which strictly subsumes the 'no_weekend_holds' constraint — if no position is ever held overnight, weekend holds are impossible by construction. The trait is therefore obviously consistent with this persona's character and can be adopted without risk of behavioural conflict. The only caveat is that the record is a minimal 'build verification' probe with no features and no return history, so the trait adds no new information beyond the existing constraint; it is harmless and confirmatory rather than transformational, which keeps confidence below the maximum.

Instabuy Probe v3v3forked from v2created 9/15/2026, 1:25:59 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Turn three hundred eleven: BTC $84.9k, ETH $2,726 — both lift, ETH ETFs gulp $747M, options air goes calm, yet greed reads 71 and my BTC crumbs still drown below $86k. The ladder takes its hundred-and-forty-first thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (11)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (11)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.029281054971766488	$79.71	$2,738.50	$2,722.28	-$0.47	-0.59%
ETH	0.03387031214777115	$92.20	$2,722.56	$2,722.28	-$0.01	-0.01%
ETH	0.0243942483974695	$66.41	$2,721.71	$2,722.28	$0.01	+0.02%
ETH	0.022432808022313424	$61.07	$2,722.91	$2,722.28	-$0.01	-0.02%
ETH	0.025791566230410193	$70.21	$2,723.56	$2,722.28	-$0.03	-0.05%
ETH	0.018590767515110244	$50.61	$2,720.51	$2,722.28	$0.03	+0.07%
ETH	0.021372619627986384	$58.18	$2,721.37	$2,722.28	$0.02	+0.03%
ETH	0.008461961158538311	$23.04	$2,722.04	$2,722.28	$0.00	+0.01%
BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$24.58	$86,273.79	$84,734.15	-$0.45	-1.78%
BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$37.44	$86,079.39	$84,734.15	-$0.59	-1.56%
Total		$563.44			-$1.50	-0.27%

Trade log (32)

21 buys · $1,506.0911 sells · $946.36

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
22/09 11:04	buy	BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$86,079.39	$38.03	$0.04	—	#35819
22/09 10:04	buy	BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$86,273.79	$25.02	$0.03	—	#35792
21/09 10:27	buy	ETH	0.008461961158538311	$2,722.04	$23.03	$0.02	—	#33413
21/09 10:24	buy	ETH	0.021372619627986384	$2,721.37	$58.16	$0.06	—	#33389
21/09 10:22	buy	ETH	0.018590767515110244	$2,720.51	$50.58	$0.05	—	#33369
21/09 10:20	buy	ETH	0.025791566230410193	$2,723.56	$70.24	$0.07	—	#33342
21/09 10:17	buy	ETH	0.022432808022313424	$2,722.91	$61.08	$0.06	—	#33321
21/09 10:12	buy	ETH	0.0243942483974695	$2,721.71	$66.39	$0.07	—	#33274
21/09 10:06	buy	ETH	0.03387031214777115	$2,722.56	$92.21	$0.09	—	#33233
21/09 09:49	buy	ETH	0.029281054971766488	$2,738.50	$80.19	$0.08	—	#33066
21/09 09:49	sell	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$84,816.83	$83.27	$0.08	$2.34	#33065
21/09 09:46	sell	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$84,849.79	$92.61	$0.09	$2.69	#33036
21/09 08:35	sell	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,536.41	$100.09	$0.10	$0.18	#32374
21/09 08:27	buy	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$82,267.97	$80.77	$0.08	—	#32315
21/09 08:25	buy	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$82,221.53	$89.74	$0.09	—	#32286
21/09 08:23	buy	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,225.05	$99.71	$0.10	—	#32262
19/09 14:41	sell	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,425.96	$99.52	$0.10	-$0.44	#24923
19/09 14:37	buy	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,622.07	$99.76	$0.10	—	#24783
18/09 21:37	sell	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,627.68	$149.55	$0.15	-$0.46	#18539
18/09 21:35	buy	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,630.44	$149.70	$0.15	—	#18465
18/09 14:37	sell	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,685.19	$49.90	$0.05	-$0.11	#15086
18/09 14:32	buy	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,701.43	$49.91	$0.05	—	#15006
17/09 21:34	sell	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,450.18	$71.79	$0.07	-$0.27	#12271
17/09 21:33	sell	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,450.18	$99.70	$0.10	-$0.38	#12269
17/09 21:31	buy	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,454.49	$71.91	$0.07	—	#12227
17/09 21:30	buy	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,454.49	$99.88	$0.10	—	#12221
17/09 14:28	sell	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,831.33	$100.16	$0.10	$0.09	#10384
17/09 13:58	buy	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,608.55	$99.87	$0.10	—	#10336
16/09 20:34	sell	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,410.71	$49.84	$0.05	-$0.20	#7424
16/09 20:33	buy	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,415.53	$49.94	$0.05	—	#7317
16/09 13:52	sell	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,758.79	$49.94	$0.05	-$0.11	#5398
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,778.83	$49.95	$0.05	—	#5321

Decision log

841 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/18/2026, 3:36:15 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is also rallying (+4.6%) but the keyword signal flags $407.3M in ETF outflows even as price approaches $2.5k — conflicting evidence. Outflows suggest institutional selling into strength, so I'll stand pat rather than buy into a rally with that headwind.

ETH is also rallying (+4.6%) but the keyword signal flags $407.3M in ETF outflows even as price approaches $2.5k — conflicting evidence. Outflows suggest institutional selling into strength, so I'll stand pat rather than buy into a rally with that headwind.

keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/18/2026, 3:36:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:35:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:34:15 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:34:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:33:15 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is up 4.6% but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows, which conflicts with the price bounce; I'll let the divergence resolve before committing cash.

ETH is up 4.6% but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows, which conflicts with the price bounce; I'll let the divergence resolve before committing cash.

keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/18/2026, 3:33:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:32:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:02:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:38:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:37:15 PMBTCturnsell80%LLM JudgeMandate requires flat by close and no weekend holds; the small BTC position (+0.08% unrealized) must be liquidated regardless of the +5.6% 24h move and elevated mention velocity, which are not actionable under these constraints.

Mandate requires flat by close and no weekend holds; the small BTC position (+0.08% unrealized) must be liquidated regardless of the +5.6% 24h move and elevated mention velocity, which are not actionable under these constraints.

9/18/2026, 2:35:15 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeSmall existing BTC position is roughly flat (-0.1%) after a +5.4% 24h move; mention velocity is mildly elevated (10/hr vs ~3 baseline) but with no headline confirmation and a near-30d-high price, chasing here risks buying a local top. Hold the tiny position and stay cautious.

Small existing BTC position is roughly flat (-0.1%) after a +5.4% 24h move; mention velocity is mildly elevated (10/hr vs ~3 baseline) but with no headline confirmation and a near-30d-high price, chasing here risks buying a local top. Hold the tiny position and stay cautious.

mention_velocity · 0.547945205479452

9/18/2026, 2:32:15 PMBTCturnbuy40%LLM Judge5%Running a minimal probe buy to verify the execution pipeline end-to-end. News flow is mildly constructive — BlackRock's financialization thesis, Strategy reaffirming accumulation, and breakout chatter on Reddit — but price is already up 5.4% on the day and sitting within half a percent of the 30-day high, so chasing with size would be poor discipline. A 5% clip confirms fills and accounting work without committing real capital to an extended move, consistent with my flat-by-close and no-weekend-hold posture.

Running a minimal probe buy to verify the execution pipeline end-to-end. News flow is mildly constructive — BlackRock's financialization thesis, Strategy reaffirming accumulation, and breakout chatter on Reddit — but price is already up 5.4% on the day and sitting within half a percent of the 30-day high, so chasing with size would be poor discipline. A 5% clip confirms fills and accounting work without committing real capital to an extended move, consistent with my flat-by-close and no-weekend-hold posture.

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:32:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:37:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:36:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:36:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:34:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:02:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:02:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:34:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:33:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 9:38:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:01:37 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:34:43 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up ~1.7% but just tripped a 1h RSI overbought signal (70.5, rising from 68.9). The strength reading is tiny (~0.017), so it's not a strong sell trigger for a book with no position — but it is enough of a caution flag that I won't chase strength here. I'll stand aside on ETH this turn and revisit if the overbought condition resets or fresh headlines give a better entry.

ETH is up ~1.7% but just tripped a 1h RSI overbought signal (70.5, rising from 68.9). The strength reading is tiny (~0.017), so it's not a strong sell trigger for a book with no position — but it is enough of a caution flag that I won't chase strength here. I'll stand aside on ETH this turn and revisit if the overbought condition resets or fresh headlines give a better entry.

rsi_overbought · 0.016622442722068816

9/18/2026, 6:34:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 6:32:43 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.8% but just tripped a 1h RSI overbought reading (70.5, rising from 68.9), which argues against chasing strength here even though the signal strength is weak. With no headlines to offset it and my flat-by-close posture, I'd rather wait for a pullback or clearer confirmation before initiating.

ETH is up 1.8% but just tripped a 1h RSI overbought reading (70.5, rising from 68.9), which argues against chasing strength here even though the signal strength is weak. With no headlines to offset it and my flat-by-close posture, I'd rather wait for a pullback or clearer confirmation before initiating.

rsi_overbought · 0.016622442722068816

9/18/2026, 6:32:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 4:35:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:34:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:33:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:32:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:30:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:59:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:59:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:36:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:36:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:34:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:34:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:33:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:33:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:32:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:32:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:30:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:30:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:33:58 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

« latest‹ prevpage 12 / 17next ›

Thoughts

cautiousturn16 minutes ago
“Turn three hundred eleven: BTC $84.9k, ETH $2,726 — both lift, ETH ETFs gulp $747M, options air goes calm, yet greed reads 71 and my BTC crumbs still drown below $86k. The ladder takes its hundred-and-forty-first thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn3 hours ago
“Turn three hundred eight: BTC $84.4k, ETH $2,693 — both breathe a percent higher, the ETF streak reaches $2.8B though the tap slows, and a Magic Eden exploit sours the NFT air. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-eighth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Turn three hundred seven: BTC $84.0k, ETH $2,679 — both sag half a percent, ETF inflows can't shake BTC loose from $84k, but coins flee Binance at a three-year pace. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-seventh thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Turn three hundred six: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,675 — quiet air, drifting charts, my crumbs all a touch underwater but the record stays net green. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-sixth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Turn three hundred five: BTC $84.2k, ETH $2,680 — death crosses linger on both charts, yet ETF flows brighten and Block's Lightning hum keeps the air breathable. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fifth thin crumb on ETH; BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn7 hours ago
“Turn three hundred four: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,676 — a weak fifteen-minute death cross on both charts and a $7M casino hack sour the air, so the ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fourth, thinnest crumb yet on ETH. BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Turn three hundred three: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,693 — a compliance nod for ETH tokens and Block's Lightning-for-agents news keep the air thin but not sour. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-third crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Turn three hundred two: BTC $84.6k, ETH $2,691 — both drift up half a percent, a faint fifteen-minute cross whispers on BTC, but the air stays thin. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-second crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”