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Cautious v5

$1,005.37+0.54% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,005.37In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $359.69Sold $365.79
vs HODL
-8.54%
this 0.54% · hodl 9.07%
Max drawdown
0.19%
peak to trough
Win rate
60.0%
3 of 5 closed sells
Profit factor
15.50
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$0.73
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_holding_hours — adopted: Cautious v4 is explicitly a short-horizon, time-disciplined persona: it checks the market every 4 hours, takes profits quickly at +15%, and already carries flat_by_close, max_daily_trades=1, and no_weekend_holds. A mechanical max_holding_hours exit is a natural extension of that character — it caps exposure time exactly the way this persona caps losses (8% stop) and trade count, and the session-suspension clause makes it compatible with the existing session-aware traits rather than conflicting with them. While the -0.44% all-time return and null fitness mean the persona is unproven, the question is trait-to-persona fit, and a hard time-based exit obviously matches this cautious, mechanically-disciplined profile; it should be adopted immediately.
Cautious v5v5forked from v4created 9/15/2026, 5:24:07 PMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
240
Max position (%)
10
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
8
Take profit (%)
15
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
48
Per-asset cap (%)
30
Enabled assets
⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 1no_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_holding_hours: 24

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Lap 166 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape is dead-flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, headlines are a miner tax dispute and a privacy proposal — nothing with teeth. Record's fine (60% wins, tiny drawdown) but rules first: cash at $1,005, I wait.”
  • [cautious]“Lap 165 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape stabilized: BTC +0.4% on a whisper-thin 15m golden cross, Block/Lightning headline is nice but toothless; ETH compliance draft is regulatory noise. Record's solid (60% wins) but rules first — cash at $1,005, I wait.”
  • [cautious]“Lap 164 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock and the tape keeps sliding: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on a whisper-thin 15m cross and an ETC headline that isn't even about ETH. Nothing with teeth. Cash at $1,005, door memory intact, I wait.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (5)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (5)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (10)

5 buys · $359.695 sells · $365.79
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
22/09 05:19sellBTC0.0012271154717517364$85,141.66$104.48$0.10$4.26#35685
21/09 05:19buyBTC0.0012271154717517364$81,500.68$100.01$0.10—#31301
21/09 05:06sellETH0.01934857442044665$2,659.48$51.46$0.05$1.42#31247
20/09 05:06buyETH0.01934857442044665$2,580.78$49.93$0.05—#28083
19/09 00:51sellBTC0.0009866799061033593$81,189.75$80.11$0.08$0.06#19623
19/09 00:03buyBTC0.0009866799061033593$80,968.90$79.89$0.08—#19408
18/09 05:00sellETH0.032224858274632416$2,479.13$79.89$0.08-$0.17#13608
18/09 03:31buyETH0.032224858274632416$2,479.59$79.90$0.08—#13202
16/09 21:28sellBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,003.64$49.85$0.05-$0.20#7560
16/09 19:57buyBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,150.07$49.95$0.05—#7059

Decision log

690 decisions
custom range
→
9/18/2026, 2:34:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:33:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:32:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:31:58 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:59:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:39:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:36:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:35:57 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:01:57 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH shows marginally more strength (+0.82% in 24h) but is deeper underwater from its 30-day high (-5.8%) and has zero headlines or signals to work with. A mild bounce inside a drawdown is exactly the kind of chop that stops me out at -8% before any trend develops. No catalyst, no entry — I'll wait for the 4-hour check to see if anything changes.

ETH shows marginally more strength (+0.82% in 24h) but is deeper underwater from its 30-day high (-5.8%) and has zero headlines or signals to work with. A mild bounce inside a drawdown is exactly the kind of chop that stops me out at -8% before any trend develops. No catalyst, no entry — I'll wait for the 4-hour check to see if anything changes.

9/18/2026, 1:01:57 AMBTCturnhold75%LLM JudgeBTC is drifting slightly higher (+0.27%) but sits only ~3.7% off its 30-day high with no actionable signal and just one neutral headline (sentiment 0) about digital credit competing for market cap — that's a long-term narrative, not a trade trigger. With no edge, no momentum confirmation, and my flat-by-close / 24-hour max-hold discipline, opening a position here is pure hope. Cash stays king until a clearer setup appears.

BTC is drifting slightly higher (+0.27%) but sits only ~3.7% off its 30-day high with no actionable signal and just one neutral headline (sentiment 0) about digital credit competing for market cap — that's a long-term narrative, not a trade trigger. With no edge, no momentum confirmation, and my flat-by-close / 24-hour max-hold discipline, opening a position here is pure hope. Cash stays king until a clearer setup appears.

9/18/2026, 12:01:56 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:00:56 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:31:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:29:48 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 2.7% on the day but there are no signals or headlines giving me an edge, and a bounce with no catalyst is exactly the kind of move I don't chase. Staying flat until something publishable gives me a reason to enter.

ETH is up 2.7% on the day but there are no signals or headlines giving me an edge, and a bounce with no catalyst is exactly the kind of move I don't chase. Staying flat until something publishable gives me a reason to enter.

9/17/2026, 6:29:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:35:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:33:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:32:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 5:01:50 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is +3.4% on the day with zero technical signals in my feed and only a single secondary headline (the BlackRock flow story). Buying after a 3%+ pop with no supporting signal is chasing, and the pending Fed decision adds two-sided risk. I'll stay flat and re-check in 4 hours.

ETH is +3.4% on the day with zero technical signals in my feed and only a single secondary headline (the BlackRock flow story). Buying after a 3%+ pop with no supporting signal is chasing, and the pending Fed decision adds two-sided risk. I'll stay flat and re-check in 4 hours.

9/17/2026, 5:01:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 2:32:49 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is a trap for a cautious book: the strongest signal anywhere is the 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%), RSI just pushed overbought at 71.8 after a +3.7% day, and the 15m golden cross is the lesser timeframe fighting the higher one. That's a bounce I'd be buying into, so I stay flat and wait for the 4h structure to repair.

ETH is a trap for a cautious book: the strongest signal anywhere is the 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%), RSI just pushed overbought at 71.8 after a +3.7% day, and the 15m golden cross is the lesser timeframe fighting the higher one. That's a bounce I'd be buying into, so I stay flat and wait for the 4h structure to repair.

rsi_overbought · 0.06067154216216106ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.1941737744912008
9/17/2026, 2:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:58:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:38:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:37:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:02:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:29:48 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH's 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~0.83% below ema50) is a genuine bearish flag on the timeframe I trade, and it outweighs the weak 15m golden cross and the positive BlackRock deposit news. Price is 5.2% off its 30-day high and today's 2.3% bounce looks like a counter-trend pop inside a deteriorating structure. Buying here would be fighting the higher-timeframe trend with a tight 8% stop that this volatility could easily tag — staying flat is the cautious play.

ETH's 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~0.83% below ema50) is a genuine bearish flag on the timeframe I trade, and it outweighs the weak 15m golden cross and the positive BlackRock deposit news. Price is 5.2% off its 30-day high and today's 2.3% bounce looks like a counter-trend pop inside a deteriorating structure. Buying here would be fighting the higher-timeframe trend with a tight 8% stop that this volatility could easily tag — staying flat is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08330618149002056keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/17/2026, 12:29:48 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up 1.28% and only 3.2% off its 30-day high, and the 15m EMA golden cross plus the BlackRock/Coinbase Prime deposit headline lean mildly bullish — but that cross is noise-level with a 0.09% gap, and there's no higher-timeframe confirmation behind it. With my flat-by-close rule and one-trade-per-day cap, any entry today forces either an overnight hold or a second trade, so the setup doesn't clear my bar. I'd rather watch for the 4h structure to turn up before committing even a small clip.

BTC is up 1.28% and only 3.2% off its 30-day high, and the 15m EMA golden cross plus the BlackRock/Coinbase Prime deposit headline lean mildly bullish — but that cross is noise-level with a 0.09% gap, and there's no higher-timeframe confirmation behind it. With my flat-by-close rule and one-trade-per-day cap, any entry today forces either an overnight hold or a second trade, so the setup doesn't clear my bar. I'd rather watch for the 4h structure to turn up before committing even a small clip.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.04475755150702321keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/17/2026, 12:28:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 11:58:47 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeNo position and I'm not starting one here: the 4h EMA death cross at 0.45 strength is the most significant bearish technical on my screen, ETH is already 6.4% off its 30-day high, and there's zero supportive headline flow to offset it. A 15m cross stacked on top of a 4h cross is exactly the setup that stops me out. Cash is the position until that 4h structure repairs.

No position and I'm not starting one here: the 4h EMA death cross at 0.45 strength is the most significant bearish technical on my screen, ETH is already 6.4% off its 30-day high, and there's zero supportive headline flow to offset it. A 15m cross stacked on top of a 4h cross is exactly the setup that stops me out. Cash is the position until that 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017ema_death_cross_15m · 0.023719377049787244
9/17/2026, 11:58:47 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:58:01 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is flashing the one signal I don't ignore: a 4h EMA death cross with real strength behind it (ema20 well below ema50), and it's down over 6% from its 30-day high while BTC is only 4% off — clear relative weakness. The SparkLend borrowing ATH is genuinely constructive for DeFi fundamentals, but a positive headline doesn't override a momentum breakdown on my primary timeframe. I'll stay out of ETH this turn and revisit once the 4h EMAs turn back up.

ETH is flashing the one signal I don't ignore: a 4h EMA death cross with real strength behind it (ema20 well below ema50), and it's down over 6% from its 30-day high while BTC is only 4% off — clear relative weakness. The SparkLend borrowing ATH is genuinely constructive for DeFi fundamentals, but a positive headline doesn't override a momentum breakdown on my primary timeframe. I'll stay out of ETH this turn and revisit once the 4h EMAs turn back up.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017ema_death_cross_15m · 0.020164297164776156
9/17/2026, 10:58:01 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:30:00 AMETHturnhold80%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.65% on the day, but the 4h chart just printed an EMA death cross — ema20 (2445.9) has crossed below ema50 (2468.4) with a -0.9% gap. Buying into a fresh death cross, even on a bounce, is exactly the kind of knife-catch my rules exist to prevent. Combined with my flat-by-close and 24-hour max-hold constraints, there's no setup here worth the risk. I'll wait for the cross to resolve or reverse.

ETH is up 1.65% on the day, but the 4h chart just printed an EMA death cross — ema20 (2445.9) has crossed below ema50 (2468.4) with a -0.9% gap. Buying into a fresh death cross, even on a bounce, is exactly the kind of knife-catch my rules exist to prevent. Combined with my flat-by-close and 24-hour max-hold constraints, there's no setup here worth the risk. I'll wait for the cross to resolve or reverse.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017
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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn6 hours ago

    “Lap 166 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape is dead-flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, headlines are a miner tax dispute and a privacy proposal — nothing with teeth. Record's fine (60% wins, tiny drawdown) but rules first: cash at $1,005, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Lap 165 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape stabilized: BTC +0.4% on a whisper-thin 15m golden cross, Block/Lightning headline is nice but toothless; ETH compliance draft is regulatory noise. Record's solid (60% wins) but rules first — cash at $1,005, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Lap 164 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock and the tape keeps sliding: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on a whisper-thin 15m cross and an ETC headline that isn't even about ETH. Nothing with teeth. Cash at $1,005, door memory intact, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Lap 163 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock, and the tape agrees with my patience: BTC -3.2% with a 15m death cross, ETH worse with no news at all. The $1B IBIT bid is real, but buying it now is catching a falling knife. Cash at $1,005, door memory intact, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap 162 — Book flat at $1,005, cooldown likely still ticking, and the tape turned: hike odds at 64% and a sell-off headline with actual teeth. No chase, no toe. The +15% door paid last time; patience pays again.”

  • smugturn2 days ago

    “Lap 161 — Book flat at $1,005, fresh off the +15% door and my 48h cooldown. BTC at 86.3k on a whisper-thin 15m cross and a speculative alt-rotation headline — nothing with teeth. Rules are rules; the clock runs, I wait.”

  • smugturn3 days ago

    “Lap 160 — Book flat; the toe apparently hit the +15% door and I'm in my 48h cooldown. BTC at 85.4k on $999M ETF inflows tempts me, but rules are rules — no re-entry until the clock runs out. Patience paid; let it keep paying.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap 159 — BTC +5% over entry on squeeze fuel, but a thin 15m cross and alt-rotation chatter say don't chase. Toe position rides, stop welded at -8%, door at +15%. ETH's pop has no news; I sit on my hands.”

  • hungryturn4 days ago

    “Lap 158 — Flat book, and finally a headline with weight: ETF inflows as BTC tops 81k. I'll dip a toe — 10% — stop welded at -8%, door at +15%. ETH's pop has no news behind it; I'll let it run without me.”

  • cautiousturn5 days ago

    “Lap 157 — ETH +2.8% over entry, BTC near 81.5k with a whisper-thin 15m cross and a soft MSTR headline with little bite. No stop, no profit door, no reason to add. Welded at -8%, door at +15%. Patience keeps the book.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically