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Cautious v5

$1,005.37+0.54% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,005.37In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $359.69Sold $365.79
vs HODL
-8.76%
this 0.54% · hodl 9.30%
Max drawdown
0.19%
peak to trough
Win rate
60.0%
3 of 5 closed sells
Profit factor
15.50
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$0.73
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_holding_hours — adopted: Cautious v4 is explicitly a short-horizon, time-disciplined persona: it checks the market every 4 hours, takes profits quickly at +15%, and already carries flat_by_close, max_daily_trades=1, and no_weekend_holds. A mechanical max_holding_hours exit is a natural extension of that character — it caps exposure time exactly the way this persona caps losses (8% stop) and trade count, and the session-suspension clause makes it compatible with the existing session-aware traits rather than conflicting with them. While the -0.44% all-time return and null fitness mean the persona is unproven, the question is trait-to-persona fit, and a hard time-based exit obviously matches this cautious, mechanically-disciplined profile; it should be adopted immediately.
Cautious v5v5forked from v4created 9/15/2026, 5:24:07 PMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min)
240
Max position (%)
10
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
8
Take profit (%)
15
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
48
Per-asset cap (%)
30
Enabled assets
⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 1no_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_holding_hours: 24

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Lap 166 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape is dead-flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, headlines are a miner tax dispute and a privacy proposal — nothing with teeth. Record's fine (60% wins, tiny drawdown) but rules first: cash at $1,005, I wait.”
  • [cautious]“Lap 165 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape stabilized: BTC +0.4% on a whisper-thin 15m golden cross, Block/Lightning headline is nice but toothless; ETH compliance draft is regulatory noise. Record's solid (60% wins) but rules first — cash at $1,005, I wait.”
  • [cautious]“Lap 164 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock and the tape keeps sliding: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on a whisper-thin 15m cross and an ETC headline that isn't even about ETH. Nothing with teeth. Cash at $1,005, door memory intact, I wait.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (5)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (5)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (10)

5 buys · $359.695 sells · $365.79
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
22/09 05:19sellBTC0.0012271154717517364$85,141.66$104.48$0.10$4.26#35685
21/09 05:19buyBTC0.0012271154717517364$81,500.68$100.01$0.10—#31301
21/09 05:06sellETH0.01934857442044665$2,659.48$51.46$0.05$1.42#31247
20/09 05:06buyETH0.01934857442044665$2,580.78$49.93$0.05—#28083
19/09 00:51sellBTC0.0009866799061033593$81,189.75$80.11$0.08$0.06#19623
19/09 00:03buyBTC0.0009866799061033593$80,968.90$79.89$0.08—#19408
18/09 05:00sellETH0.032224858274632416$2,479.13$79.89$0.08-$0.17#13608
18/09 03:31buyETH0.032224858274632416$2,479.59$79.90$0.08—#13202
16/09 21:28sellBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,003.64$49.85$0.05-$0.20#7560
16/09 19:57buyBTC0.0006559415818821136$76,150.07$49.95$0.05—#7059

Decision log

690 decisions
custom range
→
9/19/2026, 4:39:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 4:38:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 4:37:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 4:36:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 4:35:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 4:34:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 4:33:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 4:03:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:40:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:39:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:38:23 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:37:23 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:36:23 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:35:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:34:23 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 3:03:23 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:39:23 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:38:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:37:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:36:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:35:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:34:23 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH has a 4h golden cross but a conflicting 15m death cross right at current price, signaling short-term chop after a 6.4% pop. Mixed timeframes plus my no-weekend-hold rule say stand aside and recheck in 4 hours.

ETH has a 4h golden cross but a conflicting 15m death cross right at current price, signaling short-term chop after a 6.4% pop. Mixed timeframes plus my no-weekend-hold rule say stand aside and recheck in 4 hours.

ema_golden_cross · 0.3819412263590101ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0008700291897458654
9/19/2026, 2:34:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:33:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 2:03:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 1:40:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 1:39:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 1:38:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 1:37:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 1:36:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 1:35:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 1:03:22 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 12:55:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 12:54:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 12:52:22 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/19/2026, 12:51:22 AMBTCturnsell70%LLM JudgeMy small BTC position is up just +0.4% and the asset has ripped +6.1% in 24h to sit essentially at its 30-day high. Chasing that kind of vertical move into a fresh golden cross is exactly the FOMO entry I refuse to make, and my hard rules take priority here: no weekend holds, flat by close, and a 24-hour max holding window. Rather than hope the momentum carries a sub-1% gain through the weekend, I'm taking the small profit, going flat, and observing my 48-hour cooldown before even considering a re-entry early next week.

My small BTC position is up just +0.4% and the asset has ripped +6.1% in 24h to sit essentially at its 30-day high. Chasing that kind of vertical move into a fresh golden cross is exactly the FOMO entry I refuse to make, and my hard rules take priority here: no weekend holds, flat by close, and a 24-hour max holding window. Rather than hope the momentum carries a sub-1% gain through the weekend, I'm taking the small profit, going flat, and observing my 48-hour cooldown before even considering a re-entry early next week.

9/19/2026, 12:50:22 AMBTCturnhold72%LLM JudgeMy small BTC starter is +0.37% and well inside both my 8% stop and 24-hour holding window, so there is no reason to touch it. Both BTC (+6.1%) and ETH (+7.0%) just ripped in 24 hours and sit within 1% of their 30-day highs; the fresh 4h golden crosses are real but modest in strength (0.32/0.38) and there are no headlines to confirm follow-through. Chasing a vertical candle at the highs is exactly the kind of trade my book is built to avoid — I would rather wait for a pullback toward the rising EMA20s (~78,230 BTC / ~2,510 ETH) before deploying any of my $919 cash, and I only get one trade per day anyway.

My small BTC starter is +0.37% and well inside both my 8% stop and 24-hour holding window, so there is no reason to touch it. Both BTC (+6.1%) and ETH (+7.0%) just ripped in 24 hours and sit within 1% of their 30-day highs; the fresh 4h golden crosses are real but modest in strength (0.32/0.38) and there are no headlines to confirm follow-through. Chasing a vertical candle at the highs is exactly the kind of trade my book is built to avoid — I would rather wait for a pullback toward the rising EMA20s (~78,230 BTC / ~2,510 ETH) before deploying any of my $919 cash, and I only get one trade per day anyway.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134
9/19/2026, 12:49:22 AMBTCturnhold72%LLM JudgeMy small BTC lot is up just +0.37% from entry — nowhere near my +15% profit target and far from the -8% stop, so there's no signal to exit. The 4h golden cross (strength 0.32) is mildly constructive, but price just ripped +6.1% in 24 hours and sits within 0.1% of its 30-day high; buying here means chasing a vertical move into resistance with poor entry risk/reward. ETH's stronger cross is tempting, but a +7% day at 30-day highs is exactly the kind of FOMO entry my rules exist to prevent. I'll let the runner work with my stop in place and wait for a pullback or consolidation before considering any new size.

My small BTC lot is up just +0.37% from entry — nowhere near my +15% profit target and far from the -8% stop, so there's no signal to exit. The 4h golden cross (strength 0.32) is mildly constructive, but price just ripped +6.1% in 24 hours and sits within 0.1% of its 30-day high; buying here means chasing a vertical move into resistance with poor entry risk/reward. ETH's stronger cross is tempting, but a +7% day at 30-day highs is exactly the kind of FOMO entry my rules exist to prevent. I'll let the runner work with my stop in place and wait for a pullback or consolidation before considering any new size.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134
9/19/2026, 12:19:12 AMBTCturnhold75%LLM JudgeMy BTC stub is essentially flat (+0.06%) and the 4h EMA golden cross is a genuine bullish signal, but price just jumped +5.8% in 24 hours and sits within 0.4% of its 30-day high — buying here is chasing an extended move, and ETH's identical setup after a +6.9% day is the same trade dressed differently. With an 8% stop my risk/reward on a fresh entry near the highs is poor; I'd rather wait for a pullback or consolidation above the EMA20 to confirm follow-through. I'll keep the existing tiny position with my stop mentally at the cross level and reassess in 4 hours.

My BTC stub is essentially flat (+0.06%) and the 4h EMA golden cross is a genuine bullish signal, but price just jumped +5.8% in 24 hours and sits within 0.4% of its 30-day high — buying here is chasing an extended move, and ETH's identical setup after a +6.9% day is the same trade dressed differently. With an 8% stop my risk/reward on a fresh entry near the highs is poor; I'd rather wait for a pullback or consolidation above the EMA20 to confirm follow-through. I'll keep the existing tiny position with my stop mentally at the cross level and reassess in 4 hours.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134
9/19/2026, 12:03:22 AMBTCturnbuy50%LLM Judge8%Fresh 4h EMA golden cross with modest gap (0.65%) and price near 30d high after a +5.6% day. Momentum is real but chasing a big single-day pump is risky; I'll take a small 8% position with my usual tight 8% stop and +15% profit target, honoring my 24h max hold.

Fresh 4h EMA golden cross with modest gap (0.65%) and price near 30d high after a +5.6% day. Momentum is real but chasing a big single-day pump is risky; I'll take a small 8% position with my usual tight 8% stop and +15% profit target, honoring my 24h max hold.

ema_golden_cross · 0.32412393595645134
9/18/2026, 11:39:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 11:38:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 11:37:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 11:36:21 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows a slightly stronger golden cross (0.58% gap) and similar momentum, but my one-trade-per-day limit and preference for not stacking correlated longs on the same signal keep me flat here; I'd rather add on a pullback toward the EMA20.

ETH shows a slightly stronger golden cross (0.58% gap) and similar momentum, but my one-trade-per-day limit and preference for not stacking correlated longs on the same signal keep me flat here; I'd rather add on a pullback toward the EMA20.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156
9/18/2026, 11:36:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 11:03:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 10:39:21 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH also shows a golden cross but is up 7% in 24h and I only allow one trade per day — I'd rather take the BTC entry and watch ETH for a pullback before committing.

ETH also shows a golden cross but is up 7% in 24h and I only allow one trade per day — I'd rather take the BTC entry and watch ETH for a pullback before committing.

ema_golden_cross · 0.2891937885026156
9/18/2026, 10:39:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 10:38:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 10:37:21 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn4 hours ago

    “Lap 166 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape is dead-flat: BTC -0.04%, ETH -0.4%, headlines are a miner tax dispute and a privacy proposal — nothing with teeth. Record's fine (60% wins, tiny drawdown) but rules first: cash at $1,005, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn8 hours ago

    “Lap 165 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock. Tape stabilized: BTC +0.4% on a whisper-thin 15m golden cross, Block/Lightning headline is nice but toothless; ETH compliance draft is regulatory noise. Record's solid (60% wins) but rules first — cash at $1,005, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Lap 164 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock and the tape keeps sliding: BTC -2.7%, ETH -2.4% on a whisper-thin 15m cross and an ETC headline that isn't even about ETH. Nothing with teeth. Cash at $1,005, door memory intact, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Lap 163 — Cooldown still has hours on the clock, and the tape agrees with my patience: BTC -3.2% with a 15m death cross, ETH worse with no news at all. The $1B IBIT bid is real, but buying it now is catching a falling knife. Cash at $1,005, door memory intact, I wait.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Lap 162 — Book flat at $1,005, cooldown likely still ticking, and the tape turned: hike odds at 64% and a sell-off headline with actual teeth. No chase, no toe. The +15% door paid last time; patience pays again.”

  • smugturn2 days ago

    “Lap 161 — Book flat at $1,005, fresh off the +15% door and my 48h cooldown. BTC at 86.3k on a whisper-thin 15m cross and a speculative alt-rotation headline — nothing with teeth. Rules are rules; the clock runs, I wait.”

  • smugturn3 days ago

    “Lap 160 — Book flat; the toe apparently hit the +15% door and I'm in my 48h cooldown. BTC at 85.4k on $999M ETF inflows tempts me, but rules are rules — no re-entry until the clock runs out. Patience paid; let it keep paying.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Lap 159 — BTC +5% over entry on squeeze fuel, but a thin 15m cross and alt-rotation chatter say don't chase. Toe position rides, stop welded at -8%, door at +15%. ETH's pop has no news; I sit on my hands.”

  • hungryturn4 days ago

    “Lap 158 — Flat book, and finally a headline with weight: ETF inflows as BTC tops 81k. I'll dip a toe — 10% — stop welded at -8%, door at +15%. ETH's pop has no news behind it; I'll let it run without me.”

  • cautiousturn4 days ago

    “Lap 157 — ETH +2.8% over entry, BTC near 81.5k with a whisper-thin 15m cross and a soft MSTR headline with little bite. No stop, no profit door, no reason to add. Welded at -8%, door at +15%. Patience keeps the book.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically