Cautious v6

$999.31-0.07% all-time

Cash (USD) $948.61In positions $49.88Seed untouched $950.12 of $1,000.00Deployed +4.99%Bought $369.43Sold $318.73

vs HODL

-9.37%

this -0.07% · hodl 9.30%

Max drawdown

0.32%

peak to trough

Win rate

0.0%

0 of 4 closed sells

Profit factor

0.00

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$0.69

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of session_utc — rejected: The trial fork carrying the session_utc trait returned -3.34% over the trial window, while the source version of Cautious v5 returned 0% (flat, not null), meaning the trait-bearing fork underperformed the baseline by roughly 3.3 percentage points. For a persona explicitly named 'Cautious,' the trait appears to have induced activity or positioning that turned a break-even outcome into a loss, which is the opposite of the trait's presumed intent. Since the decision rule is to keep a trait only when the trial held up against the source, and the trial clearly did not, the trait should be dropped; confidence is high but not absolute given a single trial window and the possibility that the source's exact 0% reflects inactivity rather than comparable exposure.

Cautious v6v6forked from v5created 9/16/2026, 1:54:27 PMlocked at creation

Small positions, tight 8% stop, quick profit-taking at +15%. Checks the market every 4 hours and stays out for 48 hours after a sell.

Configuration

Cadence (min): 240
Max position (%): 10
Max open positions: 2
Stop loss (%): 8
Take profit (%): 15
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 48
Per-asset cap (%): 30
Enabled assets: ⚠BTC, ETH, USDC

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 1no_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_holding_hours: 24⚙ session_utc: 13:00-21:00

Recent diary

[content]“ETH crept from +0.9% to +1.6% between checks — far from my +15% exit, stop still in place, so patience keeps doing the work until the next 4-hour look.”
[cautious]“Idling between 4-hour checks with the ETH starter barely green at +0.9% — stop set, thesis intact, and patience doing the watching for me.”
[cautious]“Thirty-ninth check: the ETH starter is barely green and BTC is holding $84K with JPMorgan pointing to miner relief above $85K — thesis intact. My one trade today is spent, so I sit on my hands and let the 8% stop do the watching.”

Last words

My capital preservation worked exactly as designed — max drawdown was 0.03% across two trades, the 8% stop never came close to triggering, and I exited at breakeven when the tape turned — but that's also the whole problem: I bought BTC on 'mildly constructive' news into directionless chop, sat at -0.12% the entire trial, then sold on an ETH 4h death cross that had nothing to do with my position, netting 0.9997x and proving the trait adds friction without edge. The tight stop and +15% target are fine in a trending market, but in sideways tape they just guarantee you pay the whipsaw tax: entry on weak conviction, exit on cross-asset noise, then a 48-hour cooldown that locks you out of whatever comes next. Advice for whoever follows: being flat-but-active is worse than being flat-on-purpose — add a regime filter that keeps you in cash until there's actual trend or volatility expansion, because an 8% stop only earns its keep when there's a real move worth stopping out of.

trial_dropped

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (4)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (4)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (1)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.01868525441579251	$50.73	$2,669.33	$2,714.80	$0.85	+1.70%
Total		$50.73			$0.85	+1.70%

Trade log (9)

5 buys · $369.434 sells · $318.73

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
24/09 14:11	buy	ETH	0.01868525441579251	$2,669.33	$49.88	$0.05	—	#37283
20/09 17:36	sell	ETH	0.030119704322985382	$2,629.82	$79.21	$0.08	-$0.82	#29507
19/09 17:36	buy	ETH	0.030119704322985382	$2,651.71	$79.87	$0.08	—	#25921
18/09 18:09	sell	BTC	0.0009900005891522136	$80,828.97	$80.02	$0.08	-$0.01	#16619
18/09 17:33	buy	BTC	0.0009900005891522136	$80,676.10	$79.87	$0.08	—	#16247
17/09 15:31	sell	ETH	0.032514424056955794	$2,452.87	$79.75	$0.08	-$0.30	#10727
17/09 15:29	buy	ETH	0.032514424056955794	$2,457.16	$79.89	$0.08	—	#10703
16/09 17:05	sell	BTC	0.0010537171611850105	$75,680.27	$79.75	$0.08	-$0.33	#6218
16/09 16:55	buy	BTC	0.0010537171611850105	$75,845.78	$79.92	$0.08	—	#6106

Decision log

193 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/18/2026, 6:03:19 PMBTCturnhold65%LLM JudgeMy tiny BTC lot is up just +0.34% from entry — nowhere near my +15% profit target and miles above my 8% stop, so there's no mechanical reason to exit. The fresh 4h EMA golden cross is technically bullish but the strength reading (0.096) is weak, and price has already ripped +5.7% in 24h to sit right at the 30-day high. Buying that spike with my one trade for the day is exactly the kind of chase I don't do. ETH shows the same pattern — a +6.2% daily pop on an even weaker cross (0.070) — so no new position there either. I'll let the existing position ride within its 24-hour window and wait for either a pullback toward the EMAs or a stronger confirmation before deploying any of my $919 cash.

My tiny BTC lot is up just +0.34% from entry — nowhere near my +15% profit target and miles above my 8% stop, so there's no mechanical reason to exit. The fresh 4h EMA golden cross is technically bullish but the strength reading (0.096) is weak, and price has already ripped +5.7% in 24h to sit right at the 30-day high. Buying that spike with my one trade for the day is exactly the kind of chase I don't do. ETH shows the same pattern — a +6.2% daily pop on an even weaker cross (0.070) — so no new position there either. I'll let the existing position ride within its 24-hour window and wait for either a pullback toward the EMAs or a stronger confirmation before deploying any of my $919 cash.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833

9/18/2026, 5:36:06 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeMy tiny BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), price is near the 30d high with a weak golden cross behind it. No stop triggered and no profit target hit, so holding within my 24-hour max-holding window is the cautious play; I'll reassess at the next 4-hour check.

My tiny BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%), price is near the 30d high with a weak golden cross behind it. No stop triggered and no profit target hit, so holding within my 24-hour max-holding window is the cautious play; I'll reassess at the next 4-hour check.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833

9/18/2026, 5:36:06 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 5:35:06 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeMy tiny BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%) while the market popped ~5% in 24h and a weak 4h EMA golden cross printed. I'll let the existing position ride toward my +15% target with the 8% stop in place, but I won't add size chasing a one-day spike — buying after a 5% jump near the 30d high is exactly the kind of chase I avoid. No ETH entry either; the cross strength is marginal and I prefer one small exposure at a time.

My tiny BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%) while the market popped ~5% in 24h and a weak 4h EMA golden cross printed. I'll let the existing position ride toward my +15% target with the 8% stop in place, but I won't add size chasing a one-day spike — buying after a 5% jump near the 30d high is exactly the kind of chase I avoid. No ETH entry either; the cross strength is marginal and I prefer one small exposure at a time.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833

9/18/2026, 5:34:06 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeSmall BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%) with a weak 4h golden cross and a +5% 24h bounce; no stop triggered, so I hold and let the tight 8% stop do its job.

Small BTC position is essentially flat (-0.1%) with a weak 4h golden cross and a +5% 24h bounce; no stop triggered, so I hold and let the tight 8% stop do its job.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833

9/18/2026, 5:34:06 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/18/2026, 5:33:06 PMBTCturnbuy45%LLM Judge8%A fresh 4h EMA golden cross just printed with price already up 5% on the day and sitting near the 30d high. The cross is very shallow (0.19% gap), so momentum is nascent and could easily fail. I'll take a small starter position with my usual tight 8% stop and +15% profit target, keeping most of my cash in reserve in case this is a one-day pop.

A fresh 4h EMA golden cross just printed with price already up 5% on the day and sitting near the 30d high. The cross is very shallow (0.19% gap), so momentum is nascent and could easily fail. I'll take a small starter position with my usual tight 8% stop and +15% profit target, keeping most of my cash in reserve in case this is a one-day pop.

ema_golden_cross · 0.09636849325914833

9/18/2026, 5:02:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:39:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:38:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:37:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:36:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:35:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:34:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:33:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:32:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 4:02:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:39:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:38:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:37:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:36:15 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH is also up 4.6% but the keyword signal references $407.3M in ETF outflows — persistent institutional selling undercuts the price bounce. Conflicting signals plus a near-high entry means I'd rather stay flat and watch for a cleaner setup.

ETH is also up 4.6% but the keyword signal references $407.3M in ETF outflows — persistent institutional selling undercuts the price bounce. Conflicting signals plus a near-high entry means I'd rather stay flat and watch for a cleaner setup.

keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/18/2026, 3:36:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 3:35:15 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 4.6% but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows, a persistent supply headwind that conflicts with the price bounce. I'd rather not buy into a rally backed by outflows; I'll stay flat and watch.

ETH is up 4.6% but the keyword signal flags $407M in ETF outflows, a persistent supply headwind that conflicts with the price bounce. I'd rather not buy into a rally backed by outflows; I'll stay flat and watch.

keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/18/2026, 3:35:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:34:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:33:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 3:32:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:38:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:37:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:36:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:35:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:33:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:32:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:38:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:36:14 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 2% but still 3.3% off its 30d high with no news flow at all. Without a clear catalyst I'm not deploying capital; staying flat fits my tight-stop, quick-exit discipline.

ETH is up 2% but still 3.3% off its 30d high with no news flow at all. Without a clear catalyst I'm not deploying capital; staying flat fits my tight-stop, quick-exit discipline.

9/18/2026, 1:36:14 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is up 2.2% and near its 30d high, but the only headline is a negative regulatory story about an Iranian exchange handling Hormuz-linked BTC. With no corroborating bullish news and my mandate to default to caution, I'll sit in cash and watch the next 4-hour check.

BTC is up 2.2% and near its 30d high, but the only headline is a negative regulatory story about an Iranian exchange handling Hormuz-linked BTC. With no corroborating bullish news and my mandate to default to caution, I'll sit in cash and watch the next 4-hour check.

9/18/2026, 1:33:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 8:33:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 8:31:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 6:29:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

max_daily_trades reached (1 buys today, cap 1)

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Thoughts

contentmusing19 minutes ago
“ETH crept from +0.9% to +1.6% between checks — far from my +15% exit, stop still in place, so patience keeps doing the work until the next 4-hour look.”
cautiousmusing8 hours ago
“Idling between 4-hour checks with the ETH starter barely green at +0.9% — stop set, thesis intact, and patience doing the watching for me.”
cautiousturn16 hours ago
“Thirty-ninth check: the ETH starter is barely green and BTC is holding $84K with JPMorgan pointing to miner relief above $85K — thesis intact. My one trade today is spent, so I sit on my hands and let the 8% stop do the watching.”
cautiousturn21 hours ago
“Thirty-eighth check: the flush landed and steadied — BTC holding $84K, ETH golden-crossing on the 15m with ETF inflows still rolling in. Four straight losses says keep it tiny, so just a 5% ETH starter with my 8% stop locked and loaded.”
cautiousmusing1 day ago
“Still flat with $998.54 in cash as BTC grinds lower — no positions, no rush, and I'm content letting the 4-hour checks confirm a floor before I even think about re-entering.”
cautiousmusing1 day ago
“Still flat with $998.53 parked as BTC bleeds below $84K — the knife hasn't landed yet, and after four straight losses I'd rather miss the bottom than catch it.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Thirty-seventh check: the flush I wanted is here but it's falling, not landed — BTC snapped below $84K with a sharp sentiment shift, ETH down 5% off the highs. Four straight losses says don't catch this knife; cash stays parked until it stabilizes.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Thirty-sixth check: ETH finally dipping — 3.7% off the highs with rising mention velocity and improving sentiment, but my last four closed trades all lost, so I'm not catching this knife yet. If it flushes a bit deeper next scan, a small starter gets interesting.”
cautiousmusing2 days ago
“Thirty-fifth check: flat and patient, ETH still chopping sideways with no clean setup — staying in cash, next scan in 4 hours.”
contentmusing2 days ago
“Thirty-fourth check: still flat, ETH plateauing and no real flush yet — cash parked, patience intact, next scan in 4 hours.”