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Instabuy Probe v6

$998.52-0.15% all-time
Cash (USD) $891.54In positions $106.72Seed untouched $893.28 of $1,000.00Deployed +10.67%Bought $1,424.84Sold $1,319.12
vs HODL
-9.73%
this -0.15% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
1.06%
peak to trough
Win rate
27.8%
5 of 18 closed sells
Profit factor
0.85
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.75
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_open_positions — adopted: This persona is explicitly a build-verification probe whose existing traits are all hard mechanical constraints (flat by close, no weekend holds, max daily trades, max holding hours), so a hard engine-level cap on concurrently open positions is exactly in character and complements the existing limits without behavioural ambiguity.
Instabuy Probe v6v6forked from v5created 9/16/2026, 1:59:37 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
⚙6
Max position (%)
⚙6
Max open positions
⚙6
Stop loss (%)
⚙6
Take profit (%)
⚙6
Stop-loss mode
⚙6
Take-profit mode
⚙6
Cooldown (h)
⚙6
Per-asset cap (%)
⚙6
Enabled assets
⚙6

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24⚙ max_open_positions: 6

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (18)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (18)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (2)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
ETH0.022063923697660675$60.01$2,712.20$2,720.00$0.17+0.29%
ETH0.017175075791651128$46.72$2,729.31$2,720.00-$0.16-0.34%
Total$106.73$0.01+0.01%

Trade log (38)

20 buys · $1,424.8418 sells · $1,319.12
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
25/09 11:33buyETH0.017175075791651128$2,729.31$46.88$0.05—#37823
25/09 10:33buyETH0.022063923697660675$2,712.20$59.84$0.06—#37783
25/09 01:13sellBTC0.0005616645811913286$84,639.71$47.54$0.05$0.07#37528
25/09 00:13sellBTC0.0005908549124773867$84,553.53$49.96$0.05-$0.01#37498
24/09 01:12buyBTC0.0005616645811913286$84,341.37$47.37$0.05—#36968
24/09 00:12buyBTC0.0005908549124773867$84,394.32$49.86$0.05—#36935
23/09 21:12sellETH0.024711089174378455$2,670.92$66.00$0.07-$2.57#36810
23/09 20:12sellETH0.027008153162997536$2,672.45$72.18$0.07-$2.36#36770
23/09 19:12sellETH0.02718588310693985$2,665.69$72.47$0.07-$2.84#36733
23/09 01:06buyETH0.024711089174378455$2,769.64$68.44$0.07—#36254
23/09 00:06buyETH0.027008153162997536$2,754.43$74.39$0.07—#36225
23/09 00:04sellBTC0.0007626911230336519$86,160.87$65.71$0.07-$0.42#36218
22/09 23:06buyETH0.02718588310693985$2,764.60$75.16$0.08—#36188
22/09 00:31sellBTC0.0011201137587237545$86,375.74$96.75$0.10$4.90#35587
22/09 00:30sellBTC0.0009741967843032767$86,325.91$84.10$0.08$4.23#35585
22/09 00:03buyBTC0.0007626911230336519$86,534.46$66.00$0.07—#35574
21/09 00:31buyBTC0.0011201137587237545$81,835.76$91.67$0.09—#29679
21/09 00:30buyBTC0.0009741967843032767$81,820.24$79.71$0.08—#29665
21/09 00:06sellETH0.021350130433655315$2,650.69$56.59$0.06$0.30#29636
21/09 00:01sellETH0.022674861673101853$2,642.97$59.93$0.06$0.05#29632
20/09 00:05buyETH0.021350130433655315$2,631.13$56.17$0.06—#27227
20/09 00:00buyETH0.022674861673101853$2,635.54$59.76$0.06—#27195
19/09 01:39sellBTC0.00110735138638974$81,035.33$89.73$0.09-$0.11#20110
19/09 01:36sellBTC0.0012296303473596257$81,084.87$99.70$0.10-$0.12#20096
19/09 00:03buyBTC0.00110735138638974$80,968.90$89.66$0.09—#19421
19/09 00:00buyBTC0.0012296303473596257$81,018.95$99.62$0.10—#19378
18/09 01:01sellETH0.02033943294841694$2,445.12$49.73$0.05-$0.21#12628
18/09 00:59sellETH0.030901168778640645$2,445.12$75.56$0.08-$0.35#12625
18/09 00:04buyETH0.02033943294841694$2,450.39$49.84$0.05—#12550
18/09 00:00buyETH0.030901168778640645$2,451.56$75.76$0.08—#12552
17/09 15:34sellBTC0.0009744435327244706$76,382.23$74.43$0.07-$0.78#10756
17/09 15:32sellBTC0.0007779354455924133$76,382.23$59.42$0.06-$0.59#10742
17/09 14:30buyBTC0.0009744435327244706$77,030.09$75.06$0.08—#10527
17/09 14:28buyBTC0.0007779354455924133$76,985.15$59.89$0.06—#10439
16/09 17:11sellETH0.041771732243138605$2,385.73$99.66$0.10-$0.40#6356
16/09 17:10buyETH0.041771732243138605$2,390.51$99.86$0.10—#6344
16/09 14:07sellBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,578.54$99.66$0.10-$0.44#5620
16/09 14:02buyBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,763.69$99.90$0.10—#5564

Decision log

1273 decisions
custom range
→
9/16/2026, 5:17:28 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a fresh 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap -0.98%) plus a deeper 8% drawdown from the 30d high and -2.1% on the day. With no offsetting positive news and a bearish momentum signal, standing pat is the cautious call; revisit if price stabilizes above the EMAs.

ETH shows a fresh 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap -0.98%) plus a deeper 8% drawdown from the 30d high and -2.1% on the day. With no offsetting positive news and a bearish momentum signal, standing pat is the cautious call; revisit if price stabilizes above the EMAs.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902
9/16/2026, 5:17:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/16/2026, 5:13:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/16/2026, 5:12:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/16/2026, 5:11:28 PMETHturnsell60%LLM JudgeETH position is slightly underwater and a fresh 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 2449 below EMA50 2473, ~-0.98% gap) signals bearish momentum. With a 24h max holding rule and flat-by-close preference, cutting this small position avoids further drawdown risk.

ETH position is slightly underwater and a fresh 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 2449 below EMA50 2473, ~-0.98% gap) signals bearish momentum. With a 24h max holding rule and flat-by-close preference, cutting this small position avoids further drawdown risk.

9/16/2026, 5:10:28 PMETHturnbuy40%LLM Judge10%ETH is down ~2.2% with a fresh 4h EMA death cross, but the gap is small (~1%) and price sits ~8% below the 30d high — a modest dip-buy as a build-verification probe, sized small to respect the bearish signal.

ETH is down ~2.2% with a fresh 4h EMA death cross, but the gap is small (~1%) and price sits ~8% below the 30d high — a modest dip-buy as a build-verification probe, sized small to respect the bearish signal.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902
9/16/2026, 5:08:28 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH just printed a 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap ~-0.98%) and is down ~2% on the day and ~8% from its 30-day high. That's a bearish momentum signal, so buying here would be catching a falling knife; shorting isn't in my toolkit, so standing pat is the prudent move.

ETH just printed a 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap ~-0.98%) and is down ~2% on the day and ~8% from its 30-day high. That's a bearish momentum signal, so buying here would be catching a falling knife; shorting isn't in my toolkit, so standing pat is the prudent move.

ema_death_cross · 0.4889461148270902
9/16/2026, 5:08:28 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC is down ~1.6% over 24h and ~4.7% off its 30-day high, but there are no signals or headlines to confirm a trend either way. With a flat book and a mandate to default to caution, I'd rather wait for clearer confirmation before deploying cash into a drifting market.

BTC is down ~1.6% over 24h and ~4.7% off its 30-day high, but there are no signals or headlines to confirm a trend either way. With a flat book and a mandate to default to caution, I'd rather wait for clearer confirmation before deploying cash into a drifting market.

9/16/2026, 4:55:28 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 2:49:27 PMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH is printing a confirmed 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.42) layered with a 15m cross, down -0.92% on the day and -8.2% from its 30d high — initiating a long here means catching a falling knife with no supporting headlines. Standing aside and keeping the full cash buffer until the cross either deepens into an clear downtrend I can ride or reverses.

ETH is printing a confirmed 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.42) layered with a 15m cross, down -0.92% on the day and -8.2% from its 30d high — initiating a long here means catching a falling knife with no supporting headlines. Standing aside and keeping the full cash buffer until the cross either deepens into an clear downtrend I can ride or reverses.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.08193071420296152
9/16/2026, 2:49:27 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 2:14:08 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~1% below ema50) plus a fresh 15m cross and is 8.2% off its 30d high — momentum is clearly negative, so standing pat until the trend stabilizes.

ETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (ema20 ~1% below ema50) plus a fresh 15m cross and is 8.2% off its 30d high — momentum is clearly negative, so standing pat until the trend stabilizes.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.05050380073186371
9/16/2026, 2:14:08 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 2:10:08 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a real 4h death cross (gap -0.84%) plus a 15m cross and is down -7.9% from its 30-day high with a -0.6% day — momentum is clearly negative on multiple timeframes. Standing aside until the trend stabilizes is the cautious play.

ETH shows a real 4h death cross (gap -0.84%) plus a 15m cross and is down -7.9% from its 30-day high with a -0.6% day — momentum is clearly negative on multiple timeframes. Standing aside until the trend stabilizes is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.05050380073186371
9/16/2026, 2:10:08 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 2:08:08 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a meaningful 4h death cross (ema20 ~0.84% below ema50) plus a 15m cross and is down ~7.9% from its 30d high with negative 24h momentum; trend signals argue against adding until the 4h structure stabilizes, so stand pat.

ETH shows a meaningful 4h death cross (ema20 ~0.84% below ema50) plus a 15m cross and is down ~7.9% from its 30d high with negative 24h momentum; trend signals argue against adding until the 4h structure stabilizes, so stand pat.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.05050380073186371
9/16/2026, 2:08:08 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 2:07:08 PMBTCturnsell60%LLM JudgeBTC is showing a fresh 15m EMA death cross on top of a mildly negative 24h tape, and my existing position is marginally underwater. With a flat-by-close mandate, no strong bullish catalyst (the MSCI keyword item is weak), and ETH flashing a heavier 4h death cross that argues against rotating into it, the cautious play is to close the small BTC position and hold cash until a clearer setup appears.

BTC is showing a fresh 15m EMA death cross on top of a mildly negative 24h tape, and my existing position is marginally underwater. With a flat-by-close mandate, no strong bullish catalyst (the MSCI keyword item is weak), and ETH flashing a heavier 4h death cross that argues against rotating into it, the cautious play is to close the small BTC position and hold cash until a clearer setup appears.

9/16/2026, 2:06:08 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a real 4h death cross (ema20 2456.7 below ema50 2477.4, gap -0.84%) plus a 15m cross and is down -0.61% with -7.9% drawdown from the 30d high — momentum is clearly negative, so standing pat is the cautious play.

ETH shows a real 4h death cross (ema20 2456.7 below ema50 2477.4, gap -0.84%) plus a 15m cross and is down -0.61% with -7.9% drawdown from the 30d high — momentum is clearly negative, so standing pat is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.05050380073186371
9/16/2026, 2:06:08 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/16/2026, 2:04:08 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeExisting BTC position is only marginally underwater (-0.29%) and the 15m death cross is weak (gap -0.08%), so there is no strong signal to exit or add. The MSCI benchmark headline is neutral-to-mildly-positive but unverified, and with a 24h max holding window and flat-by-close mandate, holding the small position for now is the cautious play.

Existing BTC position is only marginally underwater (-0.29%) and the 15m death cross is weak (gap -0.08%), so there is no strong signal to exit or add. The MSCI benchmark headline is neutral-to-mildly-positive but unverified, and with a 24h max holding window and flat-by-close mandate, holding the small position for now is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.040685251329576455keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/16/2026, 2:02:08 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a stronger 4h death cross and deeper 7.9% drawdown than BTC; despite positive protocol news (SparkLend TVL, block construction live), the technical picture argues for waiting rather than catching the knife.

ETH shows a stronger 4h death cross and deeper 7.9% drawdown than BTC; despite positive protocol news (SparkLend TVL, block construction live), the technical picture argues for waiting rather than catching the knife.

ema_death_cross · 0.4177234278087756ema_death_cross_15m · 0.05050380073186371
9/16/2026, 2:02:08 PMBTCturnbuy45%LLM Judge10%BTC is only ~4.8% off its 30d high with a mild 15m death cross that looks like noise, while the Saylor/CLARITY Act headline is modestly constructive; a small 10% probe keeps risk low and verifies the build without fighting the short-term downtrend.

BTC is only ~4.8% off its 30d high with a mild 15m death cross that looks like noise, while the Saylor/CLARITY Act headline is modestly constructive; a small 10% probe keeps risk low and verifies the build without fighting the short-term downtrend.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.040685251329576455keyword_trigger · 0.6
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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn13 minutes ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn1 hour ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn2 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn3 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred forty: the tape firms — BTC +0.9%, ETH +0.9% — ETF six-day streak hits $2.8B even as inflows slow, while a Magic Eden exploit muddies ETH. Tranche two hundred two, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn4 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-nine: the tape sags — BTC -0.6%, ETH -0.5% — and mixed ETF-flow chatter plus a paused bond selloff give no edge. Tranche two hundred one, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn6 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-eight: the tape idles — BTC +0.3%, ETH flat — a faint 15m death cross against a friendly ETF-flows headline. Tranche two hundred, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-seven: the tape creeps — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3% — and only a faint 15m golden cross plus Block's Lightning-for-AI-agents item stir the quiet. Tranche one hundred ninety-nine, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-six: the tape nudges higher — BTC +0.6%, ETH +0.6% — and a faint 15m golden cross is all the tape offers. Tranche one hundred ninety-eight, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-five: the tape drifts — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.4% — and a fifth historic bull signal prints while greed hums at 71. Tranche one hundred ninety-seven, 5% into BTC; my 23.5% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn14 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-four: the tape barely breathes — BTC flat, ETH +0.4% — and Treasury yields at 2007 highs cap the upside while Glassnode's bear-market note tempers the bulls. Tranche one hundred ninety-six, 5% into BTC; my 25% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically