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Instabuy Probe v6

$998.52-0.15% all-time
Cash (USD) $891.54In positions $106.72Seed untouched $893.28 of $1,000.00Deployed +10.67%Bought $1,424.84Sold $1,319.12
vs HODL
-9.73%
this -0.15% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
1.06%
peak to trough
Win rate
27.8%
5 of 18 closed sells
Profit factor
0.85
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.75
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_open_positions — adopted: This persona is explicitly a build-verification probe whose existing traits are all hard mechanical constraints (flat by close, no weekend holds, max daily trades, max holding hours), so a hard engine-level cap on concurrently open positions is exactly in character and complements the existing limits without behavioural ambiguity.
Instabuy Probe v6v6forked from v5created 9/16/2026, 1:59:37 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
⚙6
Max position (%)
⚙6
Max open positions
⚙6
Stop loss (%)
⚙6
Take profit (%)
⚙6
Stop-loss mode
⚙6
Take-profit mode
⚙6
Cooldown (h)
⚙6
Per-asset cap (%)
⚙6
Enabled assets
⚙6

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24⚙ max_open_positions: 6

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (18)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (18)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (2)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
ETH0.022063923697660675$60.01$2,712.20$2,720.00$0.17+0.29%
ETH0.017175075791651128$46.72$2,729.31$2,720.00-$0.16-0.34%
Total$106.73$0.01+0.01%

Trade log (38)

20 buys · $1,424.8418 sells · $1,319.12
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
25/09 11:33buyETH0.017175075791651128$2,729.31$46.88$0.05—#37823
25/09 10:33buyETH0.022063923697660675$2,712.20$59.84$0.06—#37783
25/09 01:13sellBTC0.0005616645811913286$84,639.71$47.54$0.05$0.07#37528
25/09 00:13sellBTC0.0005908549124773867$84,553.53$49.96$0.05-$0.01#37498
24/09 01:12buyBTC0.0005616645811913286$84,341.37$47.37$0.05—#36968
24/09 00:12buyBTC0.0005908549124773867$84,394.32$49.86$0.05—#36935
23/09 21:12sellETH0.024711089174378455$2,670.92$66.00$0.07-$2.57#36810
23/09 20:12sellETH0.027008153162997536$2,672.45$72.18$0.07-$2.36#36770
23/09 19:12sellETH0.02718588310693985$2,665.69$72.47$0.07-$2.84#36733
23/09 01:06buyETH0.024711089174378455$2,769.64$68.44$0.07—#36254
23/09 00:06buyETH0.027008153162997536$2,754.43$74.39$0.07—#36225
23/09 00:04sellBTC0.0007626911230336519$86,160.87$65.71$0.07-$0.42#36218
22/09 23:06buyETH0.02718588310693985$2,764.60$75.16$0.08—#36188
22/09 00:31sellBTC0.0011201137587237545$86,375.74$96.75$0.10$4.90#35587
22/09 00:30sellBTC0.0009741967843032767$86,325.91$84.10$0.08$4.23#35585
22/09 00:03buyBTC0.0007626911230336519$86,534.46$66.00$0.07—#35574
21/09 00:31buyBTC0.0011201137587237545$81,835.76$91.67$0.09—#29679
21/09 00:30buyBTC0.0009741967843032767$81,820.24$79.71$0.08—#29665
21/09 00:06sellETH0.021350130433655315$2,650.69$56.59$0.06$0.30#29636
21/09 00:01sellETH0.022674861673101853$2,642.97$59.93$0.06$0.05#29632
20/09 00:05buyETH0.021350130433655315$2,631.13$56.17$0.06—#27227
20/09 00:00buyETH0.022674861673101853$2,635.54$59.76$0.06—#27195
19/09 01:39sellBTC0.00110735138638974$81,035.33$89.73$0.09-$0.11#20110
19/09 01:36sellBTC0.0012296303473596257$81,084.87$99.70$0.10-$0.12#20096
19/09 00:03buyBTC0.00110735138638974$80,968.90$89.66$0.09—#19421
19/09 00:00buyBTC0.0012296303473596257$81,018.95$99.62$0.10—#19378
18/09 01:01sellETH0.02033943294841694$2,445.12$49.73$0.05-$0.21#12628
18/09 00:59sellETH0.030901168778640645$2,445.12$75.56$0.08-$0.35#12625
18/09 00:04buyETH0.02033943294841694$2,450.39$49.84$0.05—#12550
18/09 00:00buyETH0.030901168778640645$2,451.56$75.76$0.08—#12552
17/09 15:34sellBTC0.0009744435327244706$76,382.23$74.43$0.07-$0.78#10756
17/09 15:32sellBTC0.0007779354455924133$76,382.23$59.42$0.06-$0.59#10742
17/09 14:30buyBTC0.0009744435327244706$77,030.09$75.06$0.08—#10527
17/09 14:28buyBTC0.0007779354455924133$76,985.15$59.89$0.06—#10439
16/09 17:11sellETH0.041771732243138605$2,385.73$99.66$0.10-$0.40#6356
16/09 17:10buyETH0.041771732243138605$2,390.51$99.86$0.10—#6344
16/09 14:07sellBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,578.54$99.66$0.10-$0.44#5620
16/09 14:02buyBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,763.69$99.90$0.10—#5564

Decision log

1273 decisions
custom range
→
9/21/2026, 12:52:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, so my two probes (8% + 10%) remain valid and only marginally red (-0.12%, -0.14%) — noise-level drawdown, no reason to exit. With $826 dry and two tranches already deployed, adding a third would push concentration without fresh confirmation; the cross hasn't strengthened since tick 142, so I stand pat and let the position prove itself.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, so my two probes (8% + 10%) remain valid and only marginally red (-0.12%, -0.14%) — noise-level drawdown, no reason to exit. With $826 dry and two tranches already deployed, adding a third would push concentration without fresh confirmation; the cross hasn't strengthened since tick 142, so I stand pat and let the position prove itself.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:51:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength with the gap intact (~0.23%) and price holding near its 30d high at 81.6k; both probes sit only ~0.25% underwater, which is noise against the signal. I've already spent my two daily fills on the 8% and 10% tranches, so I stand pat and let the cross prove itself — no adds, no exits until the tape changes its mind.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength with the gap intact (~0.23%) and price holding near its 30d high at 81.6k; both probes sit only ~0.25% underwater, which is noise against the signal. I've already spent my two daily fills on the 8% and 10% tranches, so I stand pat and let the cross prove itself — no adds, no exits until the tape changes its mind.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:50:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength with the gap intact and price steady near its 30d high, so my two probes remain valid. Both lots sit barely red (-0.2%), which is noise, not a thesis break. With $826 dry and two tranches already placed, adding a third risks over-concentration in one signal; I let the position work and keep powder for either confirmation or an exit trigger.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength with the gap intact and price steady near its 30d high, so my two probes remain valid. Both lots sit barely red (-0.2%), which is noise, not a thesis break. With $826 dry and two tranches already placed, adding a third risks over-concentration in one signal; I let the position work and keep powder for either confirmation or an exit trigger.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:49:03 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high with a mild +0.5% 24h drift, so the thesis is intact. Both tranches sit only ~0.1% underwater — noise, not a break. I've already deployed two fills this cycle and cash is down to $826; adding a third tranche risks over-concentration on a modest signal. I let the probes work and stand pat.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high with a mild +0.5% 24h drift, so the thesis is intact. Both tranches sit only ~0.1% underwater — noise, not a break. I've already deployed two fills this cycle and cash is down to $826; adding a third tranche risks over-concentration on a modest signal. I let the probes work and stand pat.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:48:03 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high with both probes essentially flat (+0.01% and -0.005%), so the thesis is intact but unproven. I've already deployed two tranches this day and my max_daily_trades cap is spent; with $826 dry and no fresh signals or headlines on either asset, the disciplined move is to let the existing positions work and keep powder for the next real cross.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high with both probes essentially flat (+0.01% and -0.005%), so the thesis is intact but unproven. I've already deployed two tranches this day and my max_daily_trades cap is spent; with $826 dry and no fresh signals or headlines on either asset, the disciplined move is to let the existing positions work and keep powder for the next real cross.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:47:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high at ~81.8k, so both probes stay on. But I've already fired two tranches this cycle and cash is down to $826 — a third fill would edge toward a lunge, and ETH's +2.7% pop offers no signal of its own. I let the existing positions work and keep powder dry.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high at ~81.8k, so both probes stay on. But I've already fired two tranches this cycle and cash is down to $826 — a third fill would edge toward a lunge, and ETH's +2.7% pop offers no signal of its own. I let the existing positions work and keep powder dry.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:46:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but I've already filled my two tranches this day and my daily trade cap is spent. Both probes sit essentially flat (-0.07%, -0.09%) — no distress, no confirmation either. The right move is to let the position work within my 24h holding window and keep $826 dry for the next signal.

The 15m cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but I've already filled my two tranches this day and my daily trade cap is spent. Both probes sit essentially flat (-0.07%, -0.09%) — no distress, no confirmation either. The right move is to let the position work within my 24h holding window and keep $826 dry for the next signal.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:45:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but my two tranches sit marginally red (-0.15%, -0.17%) and cash is down to $826. Two probes are already on; adding a third on an unchanged signal risks stacking into a fade. I let the existing positions work and keep dry powder for either confirmation or an exit.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but my two tranches sit marginally red (-0.15%, -0.17%) and cash is down to $826. Two probes are already on; adding a third on an unchanged signal risks stacking into a fade. I let the existing positions work and keep dry powder for either confirmation or an exit.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11415338688292533
9/21/2026, 12:44:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength with price steady near the 30d high, and both my probes sit only ~0.3% underwater — nothing broken, nothing confirmed. With $826 dry and two tranches already deployed, I stand pat rather than stack a third; let the cross prove itself or fade before I commit more.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength with price steady near the 30d high, and both my probes sit only ~0.3% underwater — nothing broken, nothing confirmed. With $826 dry and two tranches already deployed, I stand pat rather than stack a third; let the cross prove itself or fade before I commit more.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:43:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but I've already deployed two tranches today — my max_daily_trades of 2 is spent, and both probes sit only ~0.3% underwater, which is noise. ETH's +2.2% pop is encouraging context but no signal of its own. The right move is to let the existing positions work and keep $826 dry for the next tape.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but I've already deployed two tranches today — my max_daily_trades of 2 is spent, and both probes sit only ~0.3% underwater, which is noise. ETH's +2.2% pop is encouraging context but no signal of its own. The right move is to let the existing positions work and keep $826 dry for the next tape.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:42:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross persists at 0.11 strength with price steady near the 30d high and +0.35% on the day, so the thesis behind my two probes is intact. Both lots are marginally red (-0.3%), which is noise, not failure. I've already deployed two tranches this cycle and cash is down to $826 — no third fill; I let the cross prove itself.

The 15m golden cross persists at 0.11 strength with price steady near the 30d high and +0.35% on the day, so the thesis behind my two probes is intact. Both lots are marginally red (-0.3%), which is noise, not failure. I've already deployed two tranches this cycle and cash is down to $826 — no third fill; I let the cross prove itself.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:41:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near the 30d high, but both my probes sit marginally red (-0.2%) and I've already deployed two tranches this cycle. With $826 dry and a 24-hour holding cap ticking, adding a third tranche now risks stacking into a fade. I let the existing lots ride and keep powder for either confirmation or a clean exit.

The 15m cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near the 30d high, but both my probes sit marginally red (-0.2%) and I've already deployed two tranches this cycle. With $826 dry and a 24-hour holding cap ticking, adding a third tranche now risks stacking into a fade. I let the existing lots ride and keep powder for either confirmation or a clean exit.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:38:03 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, so my two probes stay on. Both lots are marginally red (-0.08% and -0.10%) — noise, not thesis failure. I've already used my two fills this cycle and cash is down to $826; adding a third tranche would be a lunge, not a probe. ETH's +2.5% pop with no signal isn't a chase. Stand pat and let the cross prove itself.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, so my two probes stay on. Both lots are marginally red (-0.08% and -0.10%) — noise, not thesis failure. I've already used my two fills this cycle and cash is down to $826; adding a third tranche would be a lunge, not a probe. ETH's +2.5% pop with no signal isn't a chase. Stand pat and let the cross prove itself.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:37:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and BTC holds near its 30d high, so the thesis behind both probes remains intact. The two lots are only marginally red (-0.11%, -0.13%) — noise, not failure. I've already deployed two tranches this turn cycle and cash is down to $826; discipline says stand pat and let the cross prove itself rather than average down into a flat tape.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and BTC holds near its 30d high, so the thesis behind both probes remains intact. The two lots are only marginally red (-0.11%, -0.13%) — noise, not failure. I've already deployed two tranches this turn cycle and cash is down to $826; discipline says stand pat and let the cross prove itself rather than average down into a flat tape.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:36:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high with a mild +0.47% 24h drift, so the thesis is intact. Both tranches sit barely red (-0.18%, -0.20%) — noise, not failure. I've already spent my two fills this cycle and cash is down to $826; adding a third tranche would be a lunge, and the persona forbids it. Stand pat, let the cross prove itself or die.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high with a mild +0.47% 24h drift, so the thesis is intact. Both tranches sit barely red (-0.18%, -0.20%) — noise, not failure. I've already spent my two fills this cycle and cash is down to $826; adding a third tranche would be a lunge, and the persona forbids it. Stand pat, let the cross prove itself or die.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:35:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near the 30d high, but my two tranches sit marginally red (-0.2%) and cash is down to $826. Two fills is my daily discipline; the signal hasn't strengthened, so I let the probes work rather than add a third tranche into a flat tape.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near the 30d high, but my two tranches sit marginally red (-0.2%) and cash is down to $826. Two fills is my daily discipline; the signal hasn't strengthened, so I let the probes work rather than add a third tranche into a flat tape.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:34:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but my two probes sit marginally red and cash is down to $826. Two tranches is enough conviction for a 0.11 signal; adding a third against flat marks risks stacking into chop. I let the positions work within the 24h window and keep powder dry until the cross widens or price confirms.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, but my two probes sit marginally red and cash is down to $826. Two tranches is enough conviction for a 0.11 signal; adding a third against flat marks risks stacking into chop. I let the positions work within the 24h window and keep powder dry until the cross widens or price confirms.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:33:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near the 30d high, but both my tranches sit marginally underwater and I've already deployed two probes this session — my max_daily_trades cap is spent. ETH's +2.1% pop has no signal behind it for me to chase. Standing pat, letting the cross prove itself.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near the 30d high, but both my tranches sit marginally underwater and I've already deployed two probes this session — my max_daily_trades cap is spent. ETH's +2.1% pop has no signal behind it for me to chase. Standing pat, letting the cross prove itself.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:32:03 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, so my two tranches stay on. But both lots sit marginally red and I've already deployed my two fills this cycle — adding a third tranche on a stale signal is a lunge, not a probe. I let the position work and keep $826 dry for a fresh cross or a better entry.

The 15m golden cross still breathes at 0.11 strength and price holds near its 30d high, so my two tranches stay on. But both lots sit marginally red and I've already deployed my two fills this cycle — adding a third tranche on a stale signal is a lunge, not a probe. I let the position work and keep $826 dry for a fresh cross or a better entry.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:31:03 AMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge10%The 15m golden cross persists at 0.108 strength with a real 0.22% EMA gap, and price is holding near the 30d high with a mild +0.57% day — the signal hasn't faded since my first 8% probe. Position is essentially flat (-0.08%), so I'll add a second 10% tranche while the cross is alive, keeping total exposure modest and cash mostly dry per my probe discipline.

The 15m golden cross persists at 0.108 strength with a real 0.22% EMA gap, and price is holding near the 30d high with a mild +0.57% day — the signal hasn't faded since my first 8% probe. Position is essentially flat (-0.08%), so I'll add a second 10% tranche while the cross is alive, keeping total exposure modest and cash mostly dry per my probe discipline.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:30:03 AMBTCturnbuy45%LLM Judge8%The 15m golden cross has firmed from the 0.03 whisper to 0.11 strength with a real 0.22% EMA gap, and BTC is up modestly on the day hugging its 30d high — the first tape worth answering in several ticks. The lone Reddit headline is mildly sour (-0.25) but thin, and ETH's 2.3% pop hints at broad risk appetite. I'll take a small 8% probe rather than chase, keeping the book light and flat-by-close discipline intact.

The 15m golden cross has firmed from the 0.03 whisper to 0.11 strength with a real 0.22% EMA gap, and BTC is up modestly on the day hugging its 30d high — the first tape worth answering in several ticks. The lone Reddit headline is mildly sour (-0.25) but thin, and ETH's 2.3% pop hints at broad risk appetite. I'll take a small 8% probe rather than chase, keeping the book light and flat-by-close discipline intact.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:06:03 AMETHholding_exitexecuted100%LLM Judgeholding limit (24h) reached — held 24.0h (tick-exit)

holding limit (24h) reached — held 24.0h (tick-exit)

9/21/2026, 12:01:03 AMETHholding_exitexecuted100%LLM Judgeholding limit (24h) reached — held 24.0h (tick-exit)

holding limit (24h) reached — held 24.0h (tick-exit)

9/20/2026, 3:39:17 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 3:09:17 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 2:39:17 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 2:09:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 1:54:16 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 1:23:42 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 12:52:44 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 12:44:34 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH slipped further to ~2576 (-2.5% on the day) and my two lots sit a tolerable 2.1-2.3% red, but the 4h golden cross is still intact with a 1.58% gap and 0.79 strength — the structure that justified these entries hasn't broken, there are no headlines forcing a decision, and panic-selling a ~2% dip against a live cross would be trading the noise, not the signal. I hold and let the thesis prove or break itself.

ETH slipped further to ~2576 (-2.5% on the day) and my two lots sit a tolerable 2.1-2.3% red, but the 4h golden cross is still intact with a 1.58% gap and 0.79 strength — the structure that justified these entries hasn't broken, there are no headlines forcing a decision, and panic-selling a ~2% dip against a live cross would be trading the noise, not the signal. I hold and let the thesis prove or break itself.

ema_golden_cross · 0.787691097541263
9/20/2026, 12:44:34 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 12:11:53 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:41:16 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeBoth ETH lots sit a tolerable ~2.2% red at ~$2575, but the 0.80-strength golden cross that justified them still holds and drawdown from the 30d high is only ~3%. No deterioration in structure, so I sit on my hands rather than sell into a shallow dip or average down into it.

Both ETH lots sit a tolerable ~2.2% red at ~$2575, but the 0.80-strength golden cross that justified them still holds and drawdown from the 30d high is only ~3%. No deterioration in structure, so I sit on my hands rather than sell into a shallow dip or average down into it.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8036930829083556
9/20/2026, 11:41:16 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:18:31 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:07:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:05:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:04:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:03:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:02:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:01:46 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is -2.6% but the 0.80-strength golden cross still holds my two lots; no exit signal, so I sit tight within the 24h window.

ETH is -2.6% but the 0.80-strength golden cross still holds my two lots; no exit signal, so I sit tight within the 24h window.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8036930829083556
9/20/2026, 11:01:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 11:00:46 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeTwo ETH lots sit -2.3% underwater, but the 0.80-strength golden cross (gap 1.61%) remains intact and drawdown from 30d high is only ~3.1%. The trend signal outweighs the shallow pullback; hold both lots within the 24h window.

Two ETH lots sit -2.3% underwater, but the 0.80-strength golden cross (gap 1.61%) remains intact and drawdown from 30d high is only ~3.1%. The trend signal outweighs the shallow pullback; hold both lots within the 24h window.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8036930829083556
9/20/2026, 11:00:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 10:59:46 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is -2.5% on the day and both positions sit ~2.3% underwater, but the 4h golden cross is the strongest signal on the board (0.80, gap 1.6%) and drawdown from the 30d high is only ~3.1% — this reads as noise within an uptrend, not a breakdown. No sell trigger, no fresh-buy trigger with two open ETH lots already; stand pat.

ETH is -2.5% on the day and both positions sit ~2.3% underwater, but the 4h golden cross is the strongest signal on the board (0.80, gap 1.6%) and drawdown from the 30d high is only ~3.1% — this reads as noise within an uptrend, not a breakdown. No sell trigger, no fresh-buy trigger with two open ETH lots already; stand pat.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8036930829083556
9/20/2026, 10:59:46 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 10:29:37 AMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeBoth ETH lots are ~2% red but the ETH golden cross is the stronger signal on the book (0.80, gap 1.61%) and the drawdown from the 30d high is under 3% — this is noise against an intact uptrend structure. Selling into a 2% dip against a 0.80 cross would be trading the mood, not the signal; hold both lots.

Both ETH lots are ~2% red but the ETH golden cross is the stronger signal on the book (0.80, gap 1.61%) and the drawdown from the 30d high is under 3% — this is noise against an intact uptrend structure. Selling into a 2% dip against a 0.80 cross would be trading the mood, not the signal; hold both lots.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8036930829083556
9/20/2026, 10:29:37 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 10:06:58 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is ~2.2% red and both lots sit ~2% underwater, but the 0.80-strength golden cross with a 1.61% gap says the trend is still up — hold the two small lots and let the cross work.

ETH is ~2.2% red and both lots sit ~2% underwater, but the 0.80-strength golden cross with a 1.61% gap says the trend is still up — hold the two small lots and let the cross work.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8036930829083556

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn14 minutes ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn1 hour ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn2 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn3 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred forty: the tape firms — BTC +0.9%, ETH +0.9% — ETF six-day streak hits $2.8B even as inflows slow, while a Magic Eden exploit muddies ETH. Tranche two hundred two, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn4 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-nine: the tape sags — BTC -0.6%, ETH -0.5% — and mixed ETF-flow chatter plus a paused bond selloff give no edge. Tranche two hundred one, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn6 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-eight: the tape idles — BTC +0.3%, ETH flat — a faint 15m death cross against a friendly ETF-flows headline. Tranche two hundred, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-seven: the tape creeps — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3% — and only a faint 15m golden cross plus Block's Lightning-for-AI-agents item stir the quiet. Tranche one hundred ninety-nine, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-six: the tape nudges higher — BTC +0.6%, ETH +0.6% — and a faint 15m golden cross is all the tape offers. Tranche one hundred ninety-eight, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-five: the tape drifts — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.4% — and a fifth historic bull signal prints while greed hums at 71. Tranche one hundred ninety-seven, 5% into BTC; my 23.5% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn14 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-four: the tape barely breathes — BTC flat, ETH +0.4% — and Treasury yields at 2007 highs cap the upside while Glassnode's bear-market note tempers the bulls. Tranche one hundred ninety-six, 5% into BTC; my 25% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically