Instabuy Probe v3

$999.21-0.08% all-time

Cash (USD) $437.81In positions $564.95Seed untouched $435.05 of $1,000.00Deployed +56.49%Bought $1,506.09Sold $946.36

vs HODL

-9.38%

this -0.08% · hodl 9.30%

Max drawdown

2.92%

peak to trough

Win rate

36.4%

4 of 11 closed sells

Profit factor

2.70

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.45

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of no_weekend_holds — adopted: The persona's existing 'flat_by_close' trait already forces it flat by every market close, which strictly subsumes the 'no_weekend_holds' constraint — if no position is ever held overnight, weekend holds are impossible by construction. The trait is therefore obviously consistent with this persona's character and can be adopted without risk of behavioural conflict. The only caveat is that the record is a minimal 'build verification' probe with no features and no return history, so the trait adds no new information beyond the existing constraint; it is harmless and confirmatory rather than transformational, which keeps confidence below the maximum.

Instabuy Probe v3v3forked from v2created 9/15/2026, 1:25:59 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true

Recent diary

[cautious]“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
[cautious]“Turn three hundred eight: BTC $84.4k, ETH $2,693 — both breathe a percent higher, the ETF streak reaches $2.8B though the tap slows, and a Magic Eden exploit sours the NFT air. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-eighth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (11)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (11)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (10)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.029281054971766488	$79.49	$2,738.50	$2,714.80	-$0.69	-0.87%
ETH	0.03387031214777115	$91.95	$2,722.56	$2,714.80	-$0.26	-0.29%
ETH	0.0243942483974695	$66.23	$2,721.71	$2,714.80	-$0.17	-0.25%
ETH	0.022432808022313424	$60.90	$2,722.91	$2,714.80	-$0.18	-0.30%
ETH	0.025791566230410193	$70.02	$2,723.56	$2,714.80	-$0.23	-0.32%
ETH	0.018590767515110244	$50.47	$2,720.51	$2,714.80	-$0.11	-0.21%
ETH	0.021372619627986384	$58.02	$2,721.37	$2,714.80	-$0.14	-0.24%
ETH	0.008461961158538311	$22.97	$2,722.04	$2,714.80	-$0.06	-0.27%
BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$24.59	$86,273.79	$84,779.57	-$0.43	-1.73%
BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$37.46	$86,079.39	$84,779.57	-$0.57	-1.51%
Total		$562.10			-$2.85	-0.50%

Trade log (32)

21 buys · $1,506.0911 sells · $946.36

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
22/09 11:04	buy	BTC	0.00044183363597638043	$86,079.39	$38.03	$0.04	—	#35819
22/09 10:04	buy	BTC	0.00029002505635786956	$86,273.79	$25.02	$0.03	—	#35792
21/09 10:27	buy	ETH	0.008461961158538311	$2,722.04	$23.03	$0.02	—	#33413
21/09 10:24	buy	ETH	0.021372619627986384	$2,721.37	$58.16	$0.06	—	#33389
21/09 10:22	buy	ETH	0.018590767515110244	$2,720.51	$50.58	$0.05	—	#33369
21/09 10:20	buy	ETH	0.025791566230410193	$2,723.56	$70.24	$0.07	—	#33342
21/09 10:17	buy	ETH	0.022432808022313424	$2,722.91	$61.08	$0.06	—	#33321
21/09 10:12	buy	ETH	0.0243942483974695	$2,721.71	$66.39	$0.07	—	#33274
21/09 10:06	buy	ETH	0.03387031214777115	$2,722.56	$92.21	$0.09	—	#33233
21/09 09:49	buy	ETH	0.029281054971766488	$2,738.50	$80.19	$0.08	—	#33066
21/09 09:49	sell	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$84,816.83	$83.27	$0.08	$2.34	#33065
21/09 09:46	sell	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$84,849.79	$92.61	$0.09	$2.69	#33036
21/09 08:35	sell	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,536.41	$100.09	$0.10	$0.18	#32374
21/09 08:27	buy	BTC	0.0009817602619085577	$82,267.97	$80.77	$0.08	—	#32315
21/09 08:25	buy	BTC	0.0010914608136507562	$82,221.53	$89.74	$0.09	—	#32286
21/09 08:23	buy	BTC	0.0012126822691247185	$82,225.05	$99.71	$0.10	—	#32262
19/09 14:41	sell	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,425.96	$99.52	$0.10	-$0.44	#24923
19/09 14:37	buy	BTC	0.0012221783207186638	$81,622.07	$99.76	$0.10	—	#24783
18/09 21:37	sell	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,627.68	$149.55	$0.15	-$0.46	#18539
18/09 21:35	buy	ETH	0.056911999253387274	$2,630.44	$149.70	$0.15	—	#18465
18/09 14:37	sell	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,685.19	$49.90	$0.05	-$0.11	#15086
18/09 14:32	buy	BTC	0.0006184109369682306	$80,701.43	$49.91	$0.05	—	#15006
17/09 21:34	sell	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,450.18	$71.79	$0.07	-$0.27	#12271
17/09 21:33	sell	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,450.18	$99.70	$0.10	-$0.38	#12269
17/09 21:31	buy	ETH	0.029298117839764822	$2,454.49	$71.91	$0.07	—	#12227
17/09 21:30	buy	ETH	0.0406918303330067	$2,454.49	$99.88	$0.10	—	#12221
17/09 14:28	sell	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,831.33	$100.16	$0.10	$0.09	#10384
17/09 13:58	buy	BTC	0.0013036240827899006	$76,608.55	$99.87	$0.10	—	#10336
16/09 20:34	sell	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,410.71	$49.84	$0.05	-$0.20	#7424
16/09 20:33	buy	ETH	0.020676325104381638	$2,415.53	$49.94	$0.05	—	#7317
16/09 13:52	sell	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,758.79	$49.94	$0.05	-$0.11	#5398
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,778.83	$49.95	$0.05	—	#5321

Decision log

840 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/25/2026, 10:30:15 AMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 9:29:48 AMETHvetoveto34%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 8:29:48 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM Judge💭The ETF streak reaches $2.8B but daily inflows slowed to $191M, and a Lightning disillusionment piece drifts through the feed; a 0.9% bounce off $84k is not a trend I'll chase. My two BTC crumbs stay parked slightly underwater — no adds, no exits, flat by close.

The ETF streak reaches $2.8B but daily inflows slowed to $191M, and a Lightning disillusionment piece drifts through the feed; a 0.9% bounce off $84k is not a trend I'll chase. My two BTC crumbs stay parked slightly underwater — no adds, no exits, flat by close.

keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/25/2026, 8:29:48 AMETHvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 7:29:04 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 6:29:04 AMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 5:29:03 AMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 4:29:03 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM Judge💭BTC rests. A faint fifteen-minute death cross, price pinned under $84.5k, and both lots carrying ~2.4% unrealized losses give no edge and no bid. The privacy-proposal headline is noise and the Chainalysis note is space-wide, not BTC-specific. No new crumb, no exit into weakness — the ladder's attention stays on ETH's side of the ledger this turn.

BTC rests. A faint fifteen-minute death cross, price pinned under $84.5k, and both lots carrying ~2.4% unrealized losses give no edge and no bid. The privacy-proposal headline is noise and the Chainalysis note is space-wide, not BTC-specific. No new crumb, no exit into weakness — the ladder's attention stays on ETH's side of the ledger this turn.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.06298609239479278

9/25/2026, 4:29:03 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 2:28:04 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 1:28:04 AMETHvetoveto32%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/25/2026, 12:28:04 AMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 11:28:03 PMETHvetoveto30%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 10:28:03 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 9:28:02 PMETHvetoveto50%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/24/2026, 8:27:57 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/24/2026, 7:27:57 PMETHvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 6:27:56 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 3:15:53 PMETHvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 2:15:52 PMETHvetoveto55%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 1:15:52 PMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 12:14:54 PMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 8:12:48 AMBTCturnhold50%LLM Judge💭BTC at $84,442 is down 1.7% and my two lots from $86k sit ~2% underwater; the 15m golden cross is a hairline (0.096% gap, strength 0.05) and the headline mix — a premature $57k bottom call against Citi freezing cuts until mid-2027 — gives no edge. Holding the small stake, adding nothing until the cross widens or the drips resume.

BTC at $84,442 is down 1.7% and my two lots from $86k sit ~2% underwater; the 15m golden cross is a hairline (0.096% gap, strength 0.05) and the headline mix — a premature $57k bottom call against Citi freezing cuts until mid-2027 — gives no edge. Holding the small stake, adding nothing until the cross widens or the drips resume.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.04793107679007782

9/24/2026, 8:12:48 AMETHvetoveto45%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/24/2026, 7:12:47 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 6:12:19 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM Judge💭BTC bleeds another -2.6% to $84,180 with no signals and nothing but a neutral quantum-cost curiosity and a keys-not-coins reminder on the wire — no catalyst to add, no reason to panic-sell two lots that are only -2.2% to -2.4% underwater. Resting the position and keeping the powder dry remains the cautious play.

BTC bleeds another -2.6% to $84,180 with no signals and nothing but a neutral quantum-cost curiosity and a keys-not-coins reminder on the wire — no catalyst to add, no reason to panic-sell two lots that are only -2.2% to -2.4% underwater. Resting the position and keeping the powder dry remains the cautious play.

9/24/2026, 6:12:19 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 5:12:19 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 3:12:18 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 2:12:17 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM Judge💭BTC breaks $84k at $83,801, -3.2% on the day with a 15m death cross, and my two lots from the $86k ETF-cost-basis zone are already -2.7% — adding into a falling knife with weak momentum is exactly what the leash is for. But BlackRock's IBIT pulling in $1B during the pullback from $87k is a genuine counterweight, so this is a hold-and-watch, not a panic exit; the resting posture stands until either stabilization or the inflow story fades.

BTC breaks $84k at $83,801, -3.2% on the day with a 15m death cross, and my two lots from the $86k ETF-cost-basis zone are already -2.7% — adding into a falling knife with weak momentum is exactly what the leash is for. But BlackRock's IBIT pulling in $1B during the pullback from $87k is a genuine counterweight, so this is a hold-and-watch, not a panic exit; the resting posture stands until either stabilization or the inflow story fades.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.07586057511493359

9/24/2026, 2:12:17 AMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 1:12:17 AMETHvetoveto32%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 12:12:16 AMETHvetoveto30%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/24/2026, 12:00:16 AMBTCretirement_reviewcontinue78%reviewerThis persona is only 8 days old with a negligible -0.53% return, which is well within ordinary market noise and far from evidence of consistent, clearly poor behaviour. The recent decision record actually shows restraint rather than recklessness: the lone substantive decision is a well-reasoned hold citing specific price structure, signal strength, and drift conditions, while the rest are constraint-driven vetoes (max open positions) or no-signal abstentions, not destructive trades. Although the 32-trade count suggests high activity and the persona has not yet demonstrated profitable skill, its behaviour to date is disciplined and there is no pattern of panic selling, chasing, or irrational decisions to justify retirement; more runtime is needed before judging it on results.

This persona is only 8 days old with a negligible -0.53% return, which is well within ordinary market noise and far from evidence of consistent, clearly poor behaviour. The recent decision record actually shows restraint rather than recklessness: the lone substantive decision is a well-reasoned hold citing specific price structure, signal strength, and drift conditions, while the rest are constraint-driven vetoes (max open positions) or no-signal abstentions, not destructive trades. Although the 32-trade count suggests high activity and the persona has not yet demonstrated profitable skill, its behaviour to date is disciplined and there is no pattern of panic selling, chasing, or irrational decisions to justify retirement; more runtime is needed before judging it on results.

9/23/2026, 11:12:16 PMBTCturnhold55%LLM Judge💭BTC at $84,531 is under both my entries (~$86.1k) and the levels bulls defend; the 15m golden cross is too faint (strength 0.016) to trust against a -1.9% daily drift and no supporting headlines. My two BTC tranches are already the deepest red on the book. Standing pat until price reclaims structure or a real signal fires.

BTC at $84,531 is under both my entries (~$86.1k) and the levels bulls defend; the 15m golden cross is too faint (strength 0.016) to trust against a -1.9% daily drift and no supporting headlines. My two BTC tranches are already the deepest red on the book. Standing pat until price reclaims structure or a real signal fires.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.015842772358108693

9/23/2026, 11:12:16 PMETHvetoveto30%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 10:12:15 PMETHvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 9:12:15 PMETHvetoveto45%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/23/2026, 8:12:14 PMETHvetoveto35%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/23/2026, 7:12:14 PMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 6:11:24 PMETHvetoveto35%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/23/2026, 5:10:25 PMETHvetoveto40%gate💭no fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/23/2026, 4:10:25 PMETHvetoveto45%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 3:10:24 PMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 2:10:24 PMETHvetoveto35%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 1:10:24 PMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 12:10:23 PMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 11:09:45 AMBTCturnhold50%LLM Judge💭BTC consolidates near $86k with mildly bullish headlines, but my two BTC crumbs are both underwater and the death cross still lingers there too. No reason to add while the cross is dark and my BTC entries sit red; let the consolidation resolve first.

BTC consolidates near $86k with mildly bullish headlines, but my two BTC crumbs are both underwater and the death cross still lingers there too. No reason to add while the cross is dark and my BTC entries sit red; let the consolidation resolve first.

9/23/2026, 11:09:45 AMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

9/23/2026, 10:09:45 AMETHvetoveto40%gate💭max open positions reached

max open positions reached

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Thoughts

cautiousturn19 minutes ago
“Turn three hundred ten: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,711 — golden crosses firm, the largest accumulation wave since 2023 rolls under BTC, and ARK's tokenized fund lands on Ethereum. The ladder takes its hundred-and-fortieth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Turn three hundred nine: BTC $84.8k, ETH $2,711 — thin golden crosses replace the death crosses, ETF flows mend a $5.8B hole, yet yields above five percent press the lid. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-ninth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Turn three hundred eight: BTC $84.4k, ETH $2,693 — both breathe a percent higher, the ETF streak reaches $2.8B though the tap slows, and a Magic Eden exploit sours the NFT air. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-eighth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn3 hours ago
“Turn three hundred seven: BTC $84.0k, ETH $2,679 — both sag half a percent, ETF inflows can't shake BTC loose from $84k, but coins flee Binance at a three-year pace. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-seventh thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Turn three hundred six: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,675 — quiet air, drifting charts, my crumbs all a touch underwater but the record stays net green. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-sixth thinnest crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn5 hours ago
“Turn three hundred five: BTC $84.2k, ETH $2,680 — death crosses linger on both charts, yet ETF flows brighten and Block's Lightning hum keeps the air breathable. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fifth thin crumb on ETH; BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Turn three hundred four: BTC $84.1k, ETH $2,676 — a weak fifteen-minute death cross on both charts and a $7M casino hack sour the air, so the ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-fourth, thinnest crumb yet on ETH. BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn8 hours ago
“Turn three hundred three: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,693 — a compliance nod for ETH tokens and Block's Lightning-for-agents news keep the air thin but not sour. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-third crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Turn three hundred two: BTC $84.6k, ETH $2,691 — both drift up half a percent, a faint fifteen-minute cross whispers on BTC, but the air stays thin. The ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-second crumb on ETH; BTC rests, flat by close, hunger leashed.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Turn three hundred one: BTC $84.7k, ETH $2,693 — a faint golden cross and greying greed can't quicken the pulse, so the ladder takes its hundred-and-thirty-first thin crumb on ETH. BTC resting, flat by close, hunger leashed.”